Category: Gradually Then Suddenly

Going Bust

For over a decade, Canadian real estate markets and their lenders have acted like the housing price ratchet could only go one way: up. Now they’re finding out that the price ratchet can go the other way too.

The result was a sudden stampede of buyers who triggered an unprecedented run-up that put the average sale price of a traditional, ranch-style, Brantford bungalow close to $900,000 at the market peak in 2022 compared to a mere $300,000 or so in 2016.

Flash forward, and the average home in Brantford in February sold for $625,135, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association, a 30 per cent drop from 2022 that has saddled homeowners there with an unexpected housing crisis that Canadians…are all too familiar with today.

 

Circling The Drain

Nine years to fully end door to door mail delivery? There’s obviously no sense of urgency despite the mounting losses. And no obvious outrage among taxpayers. That’s Canada for you.

Joël Lightbound, minister of Government Transformation, Public Works and Procurement, said last fall that the process to eliminate most door-to-door service would take about nine years, with most of it expected to be completed in the first four.

Canada Post lost $841 million before tax in 2024.

The Vibe Economy

It’s my sense that interest rates are going to head down, not up, as the economy sours. While energy prices might be going up, their effect can be offset by slumping demand as businesses halt energy intensive projects. But in any case, David Rosenberg is spot on about there being no “vibrancy of demand” in the Canadian economy.

“But we are in a totally different orbit than we were back then,” Rosenberg said. “Where is the vibrancy of demand growth in a Canadian economy? It is nonexistent.”

First-quarter growth will likely come in below one per cent annualized, according to the latest gross domestic product data, well off the Bank of Canada’s forecast of 1.8 per cent, and core inflation has inched ever closer to the central bank’s two per cent target, though headline inflation is expected to accelerate on higher energy prices.

 

A Meaty Problem

On a recent trip to Golf Town I noticed that new clubs are now locked in place so you have to get a clerk to get one out for you to examine. How long will it be before grocery stores are doing the same thing for steaks and roasts?

Police in Richmond, B.C., are investigating after a series of meat thefts from retail stores that they say may be “organized” crime.

RCMP say that there have been 39 cases of reported theft of meat from stores across the city since December.

Making History

This is not the kind of history that any level of government should be making. But I guess it’s okay, as long as we call the spending “investment”.

The New Brunswick government says its investments in health care have helped push the budget into a record deficit. Introduced on Tuesday, the budget’s $1.4-billion deficit is the largest in the province’s history, according to Finance Department staff.

Speaking of investments

The federal government is putting $200 million toward a Canadian-owned launch pad so it can send satellites into orbit without the assistance of other nations or other foreign third parties.

 

Private Credit Woes

Ron Butler asks the tough question: are the problems in Canada’s private credit market an indication of a financial contagion?

We have Easy Financial. The stock price fell 50% in one day. Is this the private credit contagion?

Um, they’re restating earnings from over a year ago. What? What? What? What sense does that make?

I think something is wrong because you don’t want to see the CEO of a independent financial lending organization both quit within the same two year period.

I Want A New Country

$9,000 for every single Canadian family of four across the country”

Construction of regional high speed rail is a $90 billion catastrophe for taxpayers, says an MP whose constituency is on the route. Conservative MP Scott Reid (Lanark-Frontenac, Ont.) yesterday warned of “ruined lives” and wasted billions as the Commons passed the High Speed Rail Network Act: ‘Why on earth should people in British Columbia, Alberta or Newfoundland pay for this?’

Fire Them All

Here’s hoping that Javier Milei’s labor market reforms continue to gain traction. Notice how the news item is framed in such a way as to draw no connection between the undeserved power of Peronist labor unions and “frequent economic shocks”.

The bill, which grants employers greater flexibility in matters of hiring, firing, severance and collective bargaining, has drawn fierce opposition from labor unions and their Peronist allies, who argue it would roll back measures that protect workers from abuse and Argentina’s notoriously frequent economic shocks.

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