It’s my sense that interest rates are going to head down, not up, as the economy sours. While energy prices might be going up, their effect can be offset by slumping demand as businesses halt energy intensive projects. But in any case, David Rosenberg is spot on about there being no “vibrancy of demand” in the Canadian economy.
“But we are in a totally different orbit than we were back then,” Rosenberg said. “Where is the vibrancy of demand growth in a Canadian economy? It is nonexistent.”
First-quarter growth will likely come in below one per cent annualized, according to the latest gross domestic product data, well off the Bank of Canada’s forecast of 1.8 per cent, and core inflation has inched ever closer to the central bank’s two per cent target, though headline inflation is expected to accelerate on higher energy prices.
absolutely spot on analysis.
one *cannot* assume a similar outcome, pattern of response, when the conditions do not generally line up. Canaduh is in unexplored territory now. the LIEberals had their hands on the steering whell for 10 years and went off the road 2 years in.
we are lost in the wilderness, all the metrics are consistantly down down down.
and we sure dont have the enlightened confident and tough leadership to pull us out of the fire.
did you hear that PP? your present course guarantees a permanent 2nd place. try something different. take a chance, brand yourself as a TRUE conservative, give Canaduh the message and let it decide.
all the chips on the table, its like a bar brawl, take a stand, hit them with everything you got, you may not win but its the only way you WILL win.
And if this doesn’t work, then we are doomed anyway…….
precisely. ‘stay the course’=doom and guaranteed failure and defeat and loss.
all the chip on the table, one last shot CAN succeed but may not.
the present process is merely a long slow slide down down down.
it truly does succeed sometimes. take a gander the gamble that pulled FedEx out of the fire:
https://www.foxbusiness.com/money/fred-smith-fedex-blackjack-winning-formula
now look at them. a seriously long term big player because *it was his only shot*.
are you hearing this PP?
Nope.
Like it or not, rates will remain steady or go up.
We are in Stagflation, with some economic outliars present, that will soon correct themselves, namely PM prices. Those sharp drops recently were due to margin calls and profit taking.
PMs love War.
US T-Bills are spiking upward. These directly impact borrowing/mortgage rates.
If Tiffy old boy runs counter to this, say hello to the 60 cent Arctic Peso.
Canada is as independent of the US as fleas are to a dog.
I won’t try and predict interest rates BUT if you strip out deficit spending and account for the rapid influx of immigrants we have been in recession since 2019 and will remain in recession for at least another 10 years. The only real question is whether the pin is pulled on the US debt which will be $50 trillion by 2028. Pull that pin and this will look like the good old days. Until then it’s just the frog in warming water scenario. History loves 100 year anniversaries.
Governments deep in debt and dependent on deficit spending cannot raise rates. So, they will lower rates, causing inflation, while trying to prevent the worst of stagflation.
This will continue until there is some significant disruptive event, a protracted stagnation of the housing and automotive market.
Until then, inflation will drive the stock market, property prices, food prices, and commodity prices.
Welcome.
Venezuela, Zimbabwe too, passed this point on the path they followed.
Canada accelerates down this same road,insisting it has a different destination.
Every day,your dollar buys you less.
Soon we will all be billionaires,awash in Snow Peso’s which purchase nothing.
Those who can,will use the US dollar..
Expect more border guards, hired to keep Canadians from fleeing.
Starving admist plenty..”Elbows Up” chicken dancers.