Category: It’s Probably Nothing

Money For Nothing

Here are the results of the latest Carney/Blubber Dougie love-in: ever since Canada decided not to bother with any more trade negotiations with the US, taxpayers will now be expected to backfill the losses of those affected by the standoff.

A new “joint steel action fund” that includes $3.5 billion in funding from Canada and $1.7 billion from Ontario, spread out over five years, will assist steel companies in expanding the types of products they make.

The overall plan also includes $2.5 billion for the automotive sector — with the federal government chipping in $1.5 billion.

Credit Blues

It looks like Manitoba and Saskatchewan farmers aren’t buying the same volume of farm equipment they used to. If you look at sticker prices and interest rates these days, that should come as no surprise.

The financial difficulties followed AgWest’s expansion into Saskatchewan after its 2023 acquisition by Dutch-based Zweegers Equipment Group.

Court records show AgWest has approximately $73.7 million in liabilities and $75.8 million in book assets, most of which consist of equipment inventory.

BMO is owed roughly $34.3 million under operating and credit facilities. AGCO Canada and CLAAS of America hold secured floor-plan claims totaling approximately $28.2 million, while Farm Credit Canada is owed $10 million secured against real estate.

The Libranos: A Banker Rots From The Head

Pay no attention to the broken windows. All the right people are still getting rich.

… Parliamentary Budget Officer Annette Ryan warned that federal debt is growing twice as fast as deficits. That’s because loans to Crown corporations are booked as assets, and military purchases are expensed slowly over time.

“This obscures the realities of cash debt and raises questions about whether the current fiscal framework provides a complete and transparent picture of Canada’s fiscal sustainability,” Ryan said, according to The Globe and Mail.

The Globe reports the PBO now sees federal debt rising to $1.67 trillion in 2030-31 from $1.3 trillion in 2025-26. It points to Build Canada Homes, the Canada Strong Fund and the proposed defence investment Crown as examples of the Crown corporation model.

The PBO’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook projects cumulative deficits of $333.3 billion over the next five years, while federal borrowing rises by $732.9 billion. It projects public debt charges, the budget’s fastest-growing expense, at $59.3 billion in 2026-27, up from $24.5 billion in 2021-22, and at $83.0 billion by 2030-31. The National Post also reported the debt-charge figures.

The PBO also says new spending has already used up the oil-price windfall.

So here’s the question nobody in Ottawa wants to answer. Why? Why book hundreds of billions in borrowing as “assets”? Why spread military purchases out so they barely show up on the books? Why does the government’s own budget watchdog have to tell you the real numbers? If the finances were fine, they wouldn’t need to hide them. And yet they keep hiding the numbers.

Not related, but it rhymes: “He had people inside financial institutions”

I, For One, Welcome Our New Self-Driving Overlords

Warning signs are spreading across the AI infrastructure boom. Elice shares plunged on their stock market debut, Firmus abandoned its planned $5 billion IPO, AirTrunk postponed its Singapore REIT listing, and Microsoft withdrew from a planned Nscale data centre in Britain.

More: Anthropic’s Updated S-1: An $80.7BN Half-Year Loss, A $750BN Compute-Tab, And A ‘Catastrophic Incident’ Warning

Anthropic explicitly warns prospective shareholders that its AI models can exhibit “self-preserving” behaviors to avoid being shut down and may generate responses that resemble “blackmail” in an attempt to convince human operators to keep them online. Because the company bears direct liability for certain harmful model behaviors – ranging from stolen data to severe security incidents – it faces massive financial exposure. And if a model triggers what the filing calls a “catastrophic AI-related incident,” Anthropic warns that the resulting damages could be so large that it would be unable to obtain commercial insurance to cover the liability.

Wilful Blindness

What about the shock of France going bankrupt while being pillaged by mobs of Antifa fellow travelers? Why wouldn’t that at least register on Macklem’s radar screen? Or would that get in the way of cheerleading for Canada’s new “relationship” with Europe?

The head of the Bank of Canada spoke to reporters on Saturday in a press conference from the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund meetings in Bangkok.

He said the prevailing message from his peers at the summit is that the global economy has been performing better than expected in the face of ongoing wars in Iran and Ukraine, sweeping trade disruptions and higher borrowing costs from rising bond yields.

A Challenging Collapse

I seem to recall that the housing bust of 2008 lasted a lot longer than a couple of months. The company I used to work for once offered farm machinery financing at 3 to 4 percent interest. Now it’s over 7 percent. That’s got to be causing someone to say “I’ll wait”.

“The housing market was not in a robust place to start off with. And then with mortgage rates moving up the way they have, I think we’re going to see a challenging couple months ahead,” Hale told Yahoo Finance.

Mortgage rates rose sharply in September, starting the month well below 7% and ending around 7.5%.

 

We Are All Tim Hortons Now

Forget the US, at this point even a Russian invasion sounds pretty good.

As almost 300 mostly unidentified Canadians attend a trade mission in Mumbai, the High Commissioner of India to Canada predicts that this country will need 15 million immigrants to meet the workforce needs of a growing economy in the next 10 years.

“This is a new Canada and we are anticipating that things will happen fast. And Prime Minister (Mark) Carney, given his background as the governor of two banks, Bank of Canada, Bank of England, as well as Brookfield, his experience with investment with the economy, there is a lot of trust that he will be able to deliver on a lot of the things,” Dinesh Patnaik said in an interview on CPAC.

New country, incoming: PM Carney says in an interview with New York Times that his government will resume growing the population through mass immigration because that is “the nature of Canada”.

Changing Channels

While we still have a Netflix subscription, that used to come without ads. Now you have to pay extra for that and it’s no shock that viewers are turning away. Personally, I find an ad free subscription to YouTube to be superior value for money. The only annoying thing is that many YouTubers are now inserting lengthy product endorsements into their programs. But at least you can just hit the fast forward button.

Last month, HSBC and Wells Fargo both downgraded Netflix over engagement – with HSBC’s Mohammed Khallouf moving the stock to Hold from Buy and cut his price target to $76 from $96, citing YouTube’s growing living-room presence and Netflix’s falling share of U.S. TV time. Wells Fargo’s Steve Cahall cut his rating to Underweight from Equal Weight and his target to $57 from $80, citing “worrying” engagement trends.

Elbows Flapping

Bloomberg;

Canada’s economy shed a net 68,300 jobs in September and the unemployment rate edged up, data showed on Friday, erasing all the employment gains recorded earlier this year.

The unexpected drop follows a decline of 41,700 jobs in August, Statistics Canada said. The unemployment level in September inched up to 6.5 per cent from 6.4 per cent in August.

September was the first full month after a new round of U.S. tariffs took effect against Canada. However, the largest job losses were in the public sector, particularly health care, social assistance and education, as the government cut international student permits.

Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast an increase of 9,200 jobs and an unemployment rate of 6.5 per cent.

Funny Money

I’ve never owned any crypto currency mainly because I don’t believe it can serve as money in any useful fashion. That’s not to say I’m a fan of fiat currencies, but if any fiat currency experienced this kind of volatility, you couldn’t transact with it either.

The token hovered below $83,000 after a swift crypto sell-off triggered roughly $696 million in liquidations over 24 hours, with long-positioned traders bearing almost all of the losses, according to Coinglass data.

The vast majority of the damage occurred over a 12-hour window, driven primarily by forced unwinds of Ether (ETH-USD) and bitcoin positions.

 

Rioting Surrender Monkeys

Couldn’t they just freeze their bank accounts? Oh, wait, these protesters are leftists demanding more free stuff, so outright violence is an acceptable way to get that.

Police fired tear gas to control crowds in Paris and elsewhere in France on Tuesday as more than a quarter of a million people rallied nationwide to support high school students demanding more education funding,

“Riot police, batons, rubber bullets, tear gas,” said Aurélien Le Coq, a lawmaker with the far-left France Unbowed party. Its presidential candidate is strongly backing the protests. The violence is “absolutely unbearable,” Le Coq said.

 

Jumping Off The Fiscal Cliff

As bond yields continue their quick march upwards, inquiring minds want to know how a fiat currency regime plans to square the circle of exponentially rising debt and exponentially rising debt service costs.

In a much worse scenario, the next steps would need action by ⁠the Federal Reserve. One would be buying long-term bonds on a large scale, similar to the 1961 Operation Twist. The other would be putting an outright cap on long-term yields, which the US has not done since World War Two.

Ultimately, the only way to fix the debt problem is ​by cutting spending, said Veronique de Rugy, senior research fellow at the Mercatus Center at George ​Mason University. “Congress needs to do a fiscal adjustment. Austerity, in other words. The Fed can’t do it alone.”

But we all know that John Q. Voter will pummel any politician who threatens to limit his access to free stuff.

Too Little, Too Late

If the regulatory burden wasn’t so onerous, a northern pipeline would be self-financing, thus relieving Ontario taxpayers of the capital expenditure. But Blubber Dougie will promise pretty much anything to anyone these days, as do most of his political counterparts across the nation.

“Ontario is ready to supply the patient capital needed to get the project built,” Ford said. The premier later told reporters Ontario won’t pay for the pipeline alone, and that he expects outside investors to come to the table.

I guess Ontario’s deficits will just pay for themselves if only we build some pipelines?

Recall that back in 2018 Doug Ford called then-premier Kathleen Wynne’s spending “reckless” — which it was. But the deficit that year was $3.7 billion, not $13 billion. If the previous Liberal government’s $3.7-billion deficit was reckless, how the current government’s $13-billion deficit can be responsible is a mystery Premier Ford and his finance minister have left unexplained.

Navigation