Category: It’s Probably Nothing

Running For The Exit

Claws of the Panda Gradually Then Suddenly It's Probably Nothing 8 Comments

I seriously doubt that China’s move to a gig economy has anything to do with too much saving and too little spending. It’s more of a response to the growing burden of mandated employee benefits, just like it is here.

His story is increasingly common in China, where tens of millions are shifting from formal employment into the gig economy as meagre unemployment insurance, record numbers of graduates and a shortage of jobs squeeze opportunities.

“The urgent priority is to make it easier for flexible ​workers to be included in the employee social security system,” said Nomura’s chief China economist Ting Lu, who estimates only tens of millions are fully enrolled.

“We ​need to reduce anxiety,” he said, “so that they save less and consume more.”

 

Circling The Drain?

AI Gradually Then Suddenly It's Probably Nothing Tech 21 Comments

I thought the alleged AI boom was all win/win, which you would expect to be a big benefit for companies like Microsoft. But things don’t seem to be going according to plan.

Microsoft (MSFT) on Monday announced it is cutting 4,800 roles across the company, roughly 2.1% of its workforce. The bulk of the layoffs, 3,200, will come from Microsoft’s Xbox division.

“Our business today is not healthy,” she wrote in an email to employees. “We are operating at margins that are 3-10x lower than comparable platform and publishing businesses. We must reset XBOX.”

Published This Month In The Journal Of The Blindingly Obvious

It's Probably Nothing Little Known Facts 22 Comments

Tattoos Affect Your Immune System in Ways Scientists Are Just Beginning to Understand

Plus;

“Many pigments currently in use were originally developed for industrial applications such as car paint, plastics, and printer toner, rather than for injection into human skin.”

Researchers have detected trace quantities of heavy metals in tattoo inks, including nickel, cobalt, chromium, and, on rare occasions, lead. Accumulated at high levels, heavy metals can be toxic, causing serious health problems such as internal organ damage, neurotoxicity, and increased cancer risk.

In some cases, these heavy metals triggered allergic reactions and immune sensitivity in the person receiving the tattoo.

False Alarm!

Canada’s Bolsheviks Gradually Then Suddenly It's Probably Nothing New Governor 9 Comments

I see the court economists are at it again, carrying water as they do for the new PM. They need to understand that massive spending on money losing, capital consuming circuses like FIFA does not add to GDP; that should actually be counted as a subtraction.

While CIBC was already expecting a “healthy rebound” in the second quarter, Grantham said the period was also “flattered somewhat by a rebound in mining, oil and gas, as well as potentially a boost from FIFA World Cup spending and preparations.”

Circling The Drain

Gradually Then Suddenly It's Probably Nothing New Governor 6 Comments

Say goodbye to rate cuts from the Bank Of Canada, at least for the time being.

According to Statistics Canada data, gasoline prices were up by 33.2 per cent year-over-year in May following a 28.6 per cent rise in April. These are the biggest increases since July 2022, officials said.

Food inflation also accelerated in May, rising to 4.3 per cent year-over-year compared with 3.8 per cent in April, driven mainly by higher prices for fresh fruits and vegetables.

 

The Libranos: Call The Bookkeeper

Chinada It's Probably Nothing New Governor 38 Comments

It’s a 3B$ bailout of BC developers, and even the CBC is mad about it.

B.C. is facing a glut of empty condos. Thousands of Metro Vancouver units are sitting empty and some developers are facing insolvency.

Now, some housing experts are questioning a plan by the federal and provincial governments to buy some of those vacant units and turn them into affordable housing.

They say it amounts to a multi-billion dollar bail out for developers who refuse to lower prices to reflect a sluggish real estate market.[…]

Yan has a lot of questions about the plan by Mark Carney and David Eby to spend up to $3 billion to buy vacant condos in “priority growth areas” and turn them into affordable housing.

Recent data from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation shows that as of last month, there were 4,376 completed condos sitting empty in Metro Vancouver, a 76 per cent increase from the year before.

Yan has crunched the numbers, with his analysis showing that a third of all condos without owners in Metro Vancouver cost over $1 million.

He questions how deep a discount the governments can get to make those units truly affordable.

Wrong question.

Circling The Drain

Gradually Then Suddenly It's Probably Nothing New Governor Shiny Pony 20 Comments

The problem with the technical recession label is that it obscures the fact that Canada has already been in an effective recession for about ten years.

Whether or not Canada’s quarterly GDP grew or shrank fractionally over the past six months is of trivial importance compared with the inarguable fact that per capita growth has stalled since 2015. Our economy has not just had a bad couple of quarters, it has faltered for a decade, mostly because of persistently weak business investment.

The Government They Voted For

Gradually Then Suddenly Great Moments In Socialism nannystate New Governor 30 Comments

Globe & Mail, June 1st: As Canada faces crippling debt, it must do the unpopular thing and cut elderly benefits…

Blacklocks, June 9th.;

Parliament spends more than $14 billion a year on Old Age Security for pensioners with household incomes over $60,000, records show. A federally-funded research group has petitioned cabinet to tighten income testing for seniors: “It’s appropriate to ask retirees with six-figure incomes to accept fewer taxpayer dollars.”

Are you feeling softened yet?

Circling The Drain, Literally

entitlement generation Gradually Then Suddenly It's Probably Nothing nannystate 5 Comments

There’s a simple solution for alleged funding problems for sewer and water networks: have the user pay, just like they do for internet. If usage fees cover repairs as well as future upgrades and expansion, bottlenecks won’t occur. Municipal governments, on the other hand, prefer to wait for “others”, namely provincial and federal taxpayers, to pony up for things they don’t want to charge local voters for.

She said municipalities largely rely on property taxes and user fees for revenue, which account for roughly one-tenth of total government revenues in Canada despite them being responsible for a majority of core local infrastructure.

“We know what we need to do,” she said. “The concern is we don’t have the fiscal capacity to do it at the speed and scale that housing targets require.”

Lipstick On The Pig

Gradually Then Suddenly It's Probably Nothing Media New Governor 19 Comments

Inquiring minds want to know: what’s in it for court water carriers who engage in mindless cheerleading for the government of the day? It’s like the scene in The Holy Grail where the armless knight declares, “‘Tis but a scratch!”

Luckily, economists say there is more to a recession than just two quarters of negative growth — namely the 3 Ds — depth, duration and dispersion.

This decline is not even close on depth — amounting to just 0.6 per cent annualized over the two quarters, “barely a scratch in GDP terms,” said Robert Kavcic, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets in a note.

Oh, that explains it!

Canadian Prime ‌Minister Mark ‌Carney, pressed about statistics ​showing the country is in a technical ‌recession, on ⁠Tuesday told reporters that ⁠as the government pressed ​ahead with ​reforms “the ​data will ‌be uneven”.

Gradually, Then Suddenly

Gradually Then Suddenly Great Moments In Socialism New Governor 31 Comments

Indeed. Who’s laughing now, Brantford Boomer?

The old white people aren’t MAIDing away as quickly as they’d hoped for;

The Carney government regularly describes its fiscal approach as “ambitious” and “transformational,” but in reality it’s simply perpetuating a fiscal decline that’s plunging Canada deeper into red ink. To truly transform federal finances, the Carney government must reduce spending, even in areas that are politically unpopular. And to truly be ambitious, it should start by reducing elderly benefits – Ottawa’s largest single spending item.

First, some context. The Carney government plans to run annual budget deficits ranging from $66.9-billion in 2025-26 to $53.2-billion in 2030-31. Cumulatively, this six-year period in the red represents $362.4-billion in borrowing. Over that same period, Ottawa’s total debt will rise from a projected $2.3-trillion, or 72 per cent of the economy, to more than $3-trillion, or 78 per cent of the economy.
Open this photo in gallery:

According to the Carney government’s spring economic update, elderly benefits will grow faster than any other single spending item in the budget, except debt interest costs.

I just threw that graphic in there. For context.

An “as I was saying” update: A new academic study is calculating how much money the government could save by dramatically expanding euthanasia .. including “non-voluntary” scenarios for vulnerable people.

Gradually, The Unexpectedly

Gradually Then Suddenly New Governor 13 Comments

Financial Post;

Canada’s real gross domestic product unexpectedly contracted slightly in the first quarter of 2026, marking the second consecutive quarterly decline and meeting the technical definition of a recession.

The results came as a surprise: Preliminary estimates in April had suggested the economy grew to start the year, but data released Friday by Statistics Canada showed an increase in imports — up 2.9 per cent in the first quarter, mainly driven by gold imports — dragged real GDP growth into negative territory on an annualized basis.

Falling On Deaf Ears

Canada’s Bolsheviks Gradually Then Suddenly It's Probably Nothing New Governor 14 Comments

It’s not just the federal government that isn’t that interested in Balsillie’s advice. Most provincial governments couldn’t care less either.

Balsillie said those who thrive in today’s economy own and control intangible assets such as data, AI and IP, and the U.S. has “turbocharged their capture,” but Canada’s economic game plan has stayed stuck in the decades-old “tangible production economy era,” while the new assets of the new economy require different strategies.

Empty Piggy Banks

entitlement generation Gradually Then Suddenly It's Probably Nothing 14 Comments

Here’s something these folks need to ponder: over 40 years of falling interest rates, often hovering near zero, have made defined benefit pension plans nearly impossible to maintain. The go-to “solution” is to get that magical entity known as “others” to make up any shortfall. But those “others” are growing tired of handing over their capital to be consumed.

Fed into the performance-based formula, those figures have meant former Queen’s employee Gordon Crawley has received no increases since he retired in November 2021. Meanwhile, the consumer price index (CPI) has risen by more than 16 per cent over that time frame, according to Bank of Canada data.

He says it’s been difficult, especially knowing he won’t get any additional payments to top up his pension and help deal with inflation until the fund’s returns have made up for lost ground.

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