Category: Gradually Then Suddenly

Fever Pitching

Given what I know about the Canadian political classes, I didn’t expect any of them to call out Blubber Dougie on his renewed advocacy of economic suicide for Canada. But who put duct tape over the mouths of our captains of industry? Any miner that shut off legally contracted mineral exports to the US would be successfully sued in a matter of hours and go bankrupt within days.

“He underestimates Canada. We’re all in,” Ford said. “Up here, we’re at a fever pitch, everyone’s in for an economic war. They know they’re going to have to sacrifice.”

Ford said “everything is on the table” if the dispute worsens, including cutting off electricity and critical minerals from Ontario. He also called for Canada to consider using oil and potash as leverage.

“I’ll cut them off,” Ford said of critical minerals. “You won’t get a grain of sand out of Ontario.”

 

Economic Seppuku

Here’s a suggestion for the government of Japan: maybe, just maybe, dial back the borrowing and spending spree and the bond markets might not be so jittery.

Japan is running low on options to fight a bond rout that could push debt financing costs above government estimates, leaving Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s ambitious spending agenda hostage to forces she can’t control.

The global bond selloff has found its epicentre ​in Japan with the benchmark 10-year yield on the brink of hitting 3% for the first time since the mid-1990s, as investors grow increasingly nervous about the country’s towering debt pile and inflation risks stemming from the Middle East war.

Canadian Exceptionalism

Looks like most Canadian positively thirst for economic suicide. Given the results of the last election, I’m not shocked.

Three in four respondents supported the idea of a special tax on electricity sold to the United States. Almost as many — 70 per cent — supported a special tax on all oil and natural gas exports to the United States and 63 per cent want a tax on potash exports.

The poll shows 64 per cent of respondents support banning the sale of all U.S. liquor in Canada…

 

Trump Whispering

Thank you for your email. I am currently out of the office with no access to email. I will reply to your message as soon as possible after my return.

Best regards,
Elbows 🇨🇦

Update, at Northern Perspective: Liberals Considering MASSIVE Concessions as CBC, CTV Says Carney Is Cornered

The Uniparty State

I’ve noticed that political party lines are becoming increasingly blurred these days, and not just in Canada. Are we getting to the point where we don’t have many real choices any more, or is that just the way it’s always been?

Under socialism, government owns the means of production, which the U.S. government increasingly wants to do. In June, through $750 million in investments, it took minority equity stakes in two semiconductor companies. In July, through up to $874 million in additional funding, it took minority equity stakes in six more and increased its ownership of a seventh. The Cato Institute counts 30 companies in the federal government’s expanded corporate portfolio. “Republicans warning that communists are taking over the Democratic Party might first ask why their own administration is so eager to have the government acquire pieces of private companies,” Cato analyst Tad DeHaven suggested.

 

The “W” Word

Leo Pier;

A year ago, I went looking for something like a Great Replacement Tracker — a site that aggregated all the demographic data for the West and could tell me how bad things really were. To my surprise, I couldn’t find one. So six months ago, I started building it myself.

Today, I’m announcing the first live version of the Great Replacement Clock. It tracks the European-descended share of the world’s population and of 45 historically White countries. It consolidates historical figures and modeled projections into a single interactive timeline — sourced, auditable, and methodologically transparent.

Elbows Away!

Our son-in-law was laid off in Winnipeg a few weeks ago, his company closed down in Canada. He is 33, a software engineer, and he and our daughter have a new baby.

Now Roblox has recruited him to Silicon Valley. Our daughter will be able to stay at home with our granddaughter, which she would not have been able to do in Winnipeg, like most working parents we know. A huge plus, considering the woke goofball education systems everywhere in the West.

We are proud of him. He earned this. It is an extraordinary opportunity for their young family.

But my wife and I are crushed.

If An Elbow Falls In The Forest

Canadian lumber giant is shifting corporate support operations to Georgia

Canadian lumber giant Interfor Corp., which blamed U.S. tariffs on softwood lumber when it idled two Northern Ontario sawmills indefinitely in April, has told employees it plans to shift its corporate and functional support operations from the company’s current headquarters in Burnaby, B.C., to an office in Georgia.

In a memo sent to employees earlier this month and viewed by the Financial Post, chief executive Ian Fillinger said the Peachtree City office, which is on the outskirts of Atlanta, will be established as Interfor’s “primary hub for corporate and functional support.”[…]

Since last year, Interfor and other lumber companies have been grappling with the impact of U.S. tariffs on softwood lumber. A 10 per cent tariff came on top of longstanding anti-dumping and countervailing duties, and softwood lumber shipments to the U.S. now face a cumulative levy of 45 per cent.

The United States is a big customer for Interfor. According to a November 2025 investor presentation, the U.S. accounted for 84 per cent of Interfor’s lumber sales by market. At the time, 62 per cent of the company’s operations were in the U.S. south and northwest, with the balance in the B.C. interior and eastern Canada.

Still nothing at the CBC this morning.

Canadian Exceptionalism

When the Liberal backroom boys start to admit that the rest of the world couldn’t care less about Canada, you just know that your chances of “sticking it” to Trump are somewhere between slim and zero.

Clow said that while the world should have stuck together 18 months ago, it would be the wrong approach for Canada to unilaterally retaliate now.

“The ship has kind of sailed here,” he said. “For Canada to now move on its own and implement a whole bunch of retaliatory tariffs, I think, would leave us even more exposed to further escalation and further pain from the Trump administration.”

Canadian Exceptionalism

When your currency starts to outpace the Japanese Yen in the race to get to the bottom of the dirty laundry pile, you just know that’s not a good outcome.

Net short Canadian dollar positions held by non-commercial accounts stood at $12.5 billion in the latest weekly data from the ‌Commodity Futures Trading Commission that was released on Friday….

It was the ​highest net short position for a second straight week of any currency traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and the largest in the loonie since December 2024.

The Great Negotiator

“Translated from Korean”

Hyundai Motor is effectively withdrawing its planned 3.4 trillion won hydrogen investment in Canada.

This project wasn’t just a simple overseas investment.

It was one of the key cards in the ‘Team Korea’ package, centered around Hanwha Ocean, aimed at securing the contract for Canada’s next-generation submarine project.

The approach was that if Canada chose Korean submarines, Hyundai Motor would build a large-scale hydrogen ecosystem locally as well.

However, as the submarine project tilted toward Germany, Hyundai Motor no longer had reason to continue the massive local investment.

Strangled Assets

I can identify another problem with supply mismanagement: if it were to end, your assets may suddenly be worth a lot less than they used to be, maybe even less than your debts.

A company that earns guaranteed margins because a regulation, exclusive contract or closed market keeps competitors out tends to stop doing the things that keep a business sharp. It stops scrutinizing its cost structure, investing in efficiency or asking how it would cope or what it would charge if its customers had somewhere else to go. The protection may feel like a moat. In practice, it is closer to an anaesthetic.

Running For The Exit

I seriously doubt that China’s move to a gig economy has anything to do with too much saving and too little spending. It’s more of a response to the growing burden of mandated employee benefits, just like it is here.

His story is increasingly common in China, where tens of millions are shifting from formal employment into the gig economy as meagre unemployment insurance, record numbers of graduates and a shortage of jobs squeeze opportunities.

“The urgent priority is to make it easier for flexible ​workers to be included in the employee social security system,” said Nomura’s chief China economist Ting Lu, who estimates only tens of millions are fully enrolled.

“We ​need to reduce anxiety,” he said, “so that they save less and consume more.”

 

Circling The Drain?

I thought the alleged AI boom was all win/win, which you would expect to be a big benefit for companies like Microsoft. But things don’t seem to be going according to plan.

Microsoft (MSFT) on Monday announced it is cutting 4,800 roles across the company, roughly 2.1% of its workforce. The bulk of the layoffs, 3,200, will come from Microsoft’s Xbox division.

“Our business today is not healthy,” she wrote in an email to employees. “We are operating at margins that are 3-10x lower than comparable platform and publishing businesses. We must reset XBOX.”

False Alarm!

I see the court economists are at it again, carrying water as they do for the new PM. They need to understand that massive spending on money losing, capital consuming circuses like FIFA does not add to GDP; that should actually be counted as a subtraction.

While CIBC was already expecting a “healthy rebound” in the second quarter, Grantham said the period was also “flattered somewhat by a rebound in mining, oil and gas, as well as potentially a boost from FIFA World Cup spending and preparations.”

Circling The Drain

Say goodbye to rate cuts from the Bank Of Canada, at least for the time being.

According to Statistics Canada data, gasoline prices were up by 33.2 per cent year-over-year in May following a 28.6 per cent rise in April. These are the biggest increases since July 2022, officials said.

Food inflation also accelerated in May, rising to 4.3 per cent year-over-year compared with 3.8 per cent in April, driven mainly by higher prices for fresh fruits and vegetables.

 

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