Category: Gradually Then Suddenly

Shifting Deck Chairs On The Titanic

It’s odd that associate membership with the EU was never once mentioned during the last election, yet today it is being celebrated by the chattering classes as if it were the best thing since sliced bread.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen proposed Canada becoming the first associate member of the European Union.

Not everyone is cheerleading, however. But you have to go to lesser known publications to see any of that.

Smyth used stronger language in an August article in The Western Producer, writing that joining the EU would be an “unmitigated disaster.”

“The EU bans most of the technologies that have enabled Canadian farmers to become the most sustainable producers of crops anywhere on the planet,” Smyth wrote.

 

Ain’t Gonna Happen

A balanced budget at any level of government in Canada is wishful thinking on steroids these days. John Q. Voter’s capacity for critical thinking was numbed so effectively by the Covid spending spree that any political party would be wiped out at the polls if they implemented anything beyond token spending cuts.

The Parti Québécois is promising to balance the provincial budget by 2028-2029, a year earlier than the current Quebec government’s projections.

The PQ’s plan calls for a $6.6-billion reduction in government spending over five years.

A Losing Strategy

Brian Lilley recently interviewed Professor Ian Lee who teaches at the Carlton University about Canada’s prospects for winning the trade war with the United States. In a nutshell, we pretty much lost before the war even began.

We’re we’re tariffing a little tiny tiny percentage 25 28 billion of that 400 billion and that 400 billion is 1.5%. So we are tariffing a subset of a subset of a subset of a very tiny number and we have convinced ourselves that this is going to move the needle of this enormous gargantuan economy and it will not.

Left Coast, Lost Cause

Fraser Institute: B.C. government’s land deals with First Nations threaten its ability to borrow money

Like any borrower, for the provincial government to borrow money there must be an investor willing to lend. The lending side has two groups—bond rating agencies and the actual lenders. Rating agencies analyze the sustainability of government debt to help lenders determine credit worthiness and the level of interest they should charge given the financial strength and creditworthiness of governments.

There are already worrying signs, with five downgrades of B.C.’s provincial debt by rating agencies in recent years. And there’s a real possibility that lenders will be increasingly reluctant—or potentially outright refuse—to provide debt financing to the B.C. government as its debt grows and the reality of bilateral agreements, related court cases and provincial legislation regarding Aboriginal title become clearer. This is not hyperbole. Lenders refused to provide financing to the governments of Nova Scotia and Saskatchewan in the 1990s and to Greece from 2009 to 2018. And in the early 1990s, lenders were increasingly worried about Ottawa’s debt level, causing marked increases in interest rates.

For the B.C. government (and thus, B.C. taxpayers), the financial risks linked with these agreements and court cases could result in marked increases in the interest payments lenders demand to compensate them for increased risks. Indeed, a one-percentage point increase in interest costs on the government’s existing debt would equal roughly an additional $1.9 billion this year alone. That means even more borrowing as the deficit increases.

And Victoria has racked up an almost unimaginable amount of debt in recent years, and the scale of the increase is unprecedented. Coming out of COVID in 2020/21, total provincial government debt stood at $87.1 billion and is expected to reach $183.4 billion this year (2026/27) and $234.6 billion by 2028/29, which is a total increase of 169.3 per cent in just eight years.

Enjoy The Decline

Why Mark Carney’s Canada Isn’t the One You Live In (20 minutes) – Analysis highlighting the loss of 42,000 jobs and high unemployment rates across various regions despite government claims of growth, contrasted with the thriving US economy.

Meanwhile, in Banff… With Canada’s very economic future on the line, the prime minister is bringing his team to one of the most expensive and exclusive hotels to meet about affordability

Magical Thinking

Run the same poll three months from now and you’ll probably get a very different result, but for the time being Canadians seem blissfully unaware of the freight train that’s barreling down the tracks towards them. John Q. Voter is either incapable of understanding basic economics or he’s experiencing some sort of psychotic break just now.

This means items that consumers may not regularly see or purchase, but are often required as part of a manufacturing process or supply chain that ultimately could mean higher prices for a wider variety of goods — even if they’re made in Canada.

Three-in-five (60 per cent) of respondents said they are willing to stay the course on Canada’s current negotiating strategy even if it means paying 10 or 20 per cent more for household expenses, including groceries and clothing.

Priorities, Priorities…

Canada still doesn’t have a coast to coast four lane highway, but it seems the bigger priority is to subsidize water systems for ratepayers in the oil patch. And then there’s the requisite mention of community centers, as if it were literally impossible for such entities to be financially self-sufficient. The mind boggles….

On Tuesday, the federal government confirmed a contribution of up to $29 million to the North Calgary Water Servicing project, funded through the Direct Delivery stream of the new Build Communities Strong Fund…

…$17.2 billion for provinces and territories, $6 billion for direct federal delivery on regionally significant projects and $27.8 billion flowing to local governments for roads, transit, water systems and community centres.

New Boss, Same As The Old Boss

The new guy doesn’t sound a whole lot different than Starmer. Good luck with your voting choices, Britain. You’ll soon be back to the dreary 70’s at this rate.

He said that greater public control over water, energy and transportation can drive economic growth and ease households’ financial burden, though it’s unclear to what extent he plans to reverse decades of privatization of key pillars of the economy.

End Of The Road?

Thus far in the conflict with Iran, oil price spikes have been moderated thanks to the ongoing release of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. A potential problem is that those reserves cannot be drained anywhere close to zero. If that’s the case, then we may have already hit the bottom of the barrel.

The level will drop to about 243 million if Trump releases a final batch of 39 million barrels from a March agreement with the International Energy Agency.

Siddharth Misra, a professor of petroleum engineering at Texas A&M University, said that while the absolute physical floor for the SPR is 70 million barrels, the practical minimum level for safe operations is close to 250 million barrels.

Fever Pitching

Given what I know about the Canadian political classes, I didn’t expect any of them to call out Blubber Dougie on his renewed advocacy of economic suicide for Canada. But who put duct tape over the mouths of our captains of industry? Any miner that shut off legally contracted mineral exports to the US would be successfully sued in a matter of hours and go bankrupt within days.

“He underestimates Canada. We’re all in,” Ford said. “Up here, we’re at a fever pitch, everyone’s in for an economic war. They know they’re going to have to sacrifice.”

Ford said “everything is on the table” if the dispute worsens, including cutting off electricity and critical minerals from Ontario. He also called for Canada to consider using oil and potash as leverage.

“I’ll cut them off,” Ford said of critical minerals. “You won’t get a grain of sand out of Ontario.”

 

Economic Seppuku

Here’s a suggestion for the government of Japan: maybe, just maybe, dial back the borrowing and spending spree and the bond markets might not be so jittery.

Japan is running low on options to fight a bond rout that could push debt financing costs above government estimates, leaving Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s ambitious spending agenda hostage to forces she can’t control.

The global bond selloff has found its epicentre ​in Japan with the benchmark 10-year yield on the brink of hitting 3% for the first time since the mid-1990s, as investors grow increasingly nervous about the country’s towering debt pile and inflation risks stemming from the Middle East war.

Canadian Exceptionalism

Looks like most Canadian positively thirst for economic suicide. Given the results of the last election, I’m not shocked.

Three in four respondents supported the idea of a special tax on electricity sold to the United States. Almost as many — 70 per cent — supported a special tax on all oil and natural gas exports to the United States and 63 per cent want a tax on potash exports.

The poll shows 64 per cent of respondents support banning the sale of all U.S. liquor in Canada…

 

Trump Whispering

Thank you for your email. I am currently out of the office with no access to email. I will reply to your message as soon as possible after my return.

Best regards,
Elbows 🇨🇦

Update, at Northern Perspective: Liberals Considering MASSIVE Concessions as CBC, CTV Says Carney Is Cornered

The Uniparty State

I’ve noticed that political party lines are becoming increasingly blurred these days, and not just in Canada. Are we getting to the point where we don’t have many real choices any more, or is that just the way it’s always been?

Under socialism, government owns the means of production, which the U.S. government increasingly wants to do. In June, through $750 million in investments, it took minority equity stakes in two semiconductor companies. In July, through up to $874 million in additional funding, it took minority equity stakes in six more and increased its ownership of a seventh. The Cato Institute counts 30 companies in the federal government’s expanded corporate portfolio. “Republicans warning that communists are taking over the Democratic Party might first ask why their own administration is so eager to have the government acquire pieces of private companies,” Cato analyst Tad DeHaven suggested.

 

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