Category: Art Of The Deal

Groundhog Day

Someone wake me up when this thing finally ends. In the meantime, any ideas out there as to how this script will be wrapped up?

President Donald Trump on social media accused Iran of violating the ceasefire and warned of a point where the U.S. may no longer be reasonable “and will be forced to militarily complete the job.”

“If that happens, the Islamic Republic of Iran will no longer exist!” Trump wrote.

The exchanges of fire began when an Iranian drone struck a merchant vessel off Oman on Thursday and the U.S. military retaliated with strikes.

 

Thank You For Your Attention To This Matter

Matt Margolis;

“The Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete,” Trump wrote on Truth Social, offering “congratulations to all!” He followed that up by authorizing what he called the “toll-free opening of the Strait of Hormuz” alongside the simultaneous removal of the naval blockade. Then, in classic Trump fashion, he added, “Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!”

Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif confirmed the deal in a statement of his own. He announced that “the Peace Deal between the United States of America and Islamic Republic of Iran has been REACHED” after what he described as “intensive talks.”

He continued, “We would like to thank the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran for their commitment to finding a diplomatic solution to the conflict. We would also like to extend our sincere appreciation to our brothers in this mediation effort, the great leadership of State of Qatar, for their support in reaching this agreement. I would also especially thank the visionary leadership of Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Republic of Türkiye for their immense contributions in this regard.”

A formal signing ceremony is scheduled for June 19 in Switzerland, with mediators facilitating preliminary technical meetings this week to lay the groundwork.

Richard Fernandez provides context: Iran had to sign while they still had cards to hold.

Trump Whisperer

Juno News (Video): The Gordie Howe International Bridge opening has been delayed indefinitely.

It is the latest setback in Canada’s bumpy relationship with the United States. The Gordihow International Bridge opening has been delayed indefinitely as the two countries resolve some outstanding issues. Well, at the at the request of the United States, we agreed to uh uh to delay the opening and um take the necessary time uh to resolve outstanding issues. A few issues uh that have been raised and uh this is a collaborative approach. As I said yesterday, there’s there’s not great drama here. We’re going to work through uh some some issues that uh have come up. Um and you know for a bridge Um that is going to be in place and serve Canadians, Americans um others uh for uh decades uh question of a few weeks is time well spent.

Art Of The Fail

Reuters;

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has captured global attention by championing the idea of an alliance of mid-level economic powers that would operate beyond President Donald Trump’s increasingly protectionist United States.

Yet Carney’s push to lessen dependence on the U.S. is colliding with a stubborn reality: access to American markets remains a crucial part of Canada’s appeal to prospective trading partners, according to interviews with a dozen government officials and business leaders.

Since winning election in April 2025, Carney’s team has led four trade missions, including two to Asia, seeking foreign investment in mining, engineering and infrastructure projects. A fifth, the largest so far, is headed ​to Japan later this month.

But Canadian officials acknowledge that the main draw for many potential trading partners is the prospect of gaining tariff-free access to the world’s largest market through Canada’s participation in ‌the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade ‌agreement.

Carney regularly touts Canada’s preferential access to the U.S. market, noting that more than 85% of bilateral trade remains tariff-free.

“That (USMCA deal) has been kind ​of a baseline of our investment attraction message,” said a top Canadian government official who requested anonymity to speak frankly.

ICYMI: “I’m not looking to renew it (USMCA).”

Unexpectedly

The US economy added 172,000 jobs in May, blowing past expectations, according to the government’s closely watched jobs report. The unemployment rate remained flat at 4.3%.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had anticipated payroll growth of 88,000 for the month.

April’s jobs report — which itself was a massive beat — was also revised to show an even better 179,000 jobs gained, compared to the 115,000 reported earlier. March’s payroll growth was similarly updated to show 214,000, bringing the first monthly gain above 200,000 since early 2024.

Coulda Had A Pipeline

Your second juxtapose of the day.

I want a new country.

“I have a guy who’s unbelievable at doing swimming pools up the road”

Don’t bring a bureaucratic grift op to a property developer fight;

The president said he scrapped plans to have the granite replaced, which he said was estimated to cost $301 million and would take at least three years.[…]

The president went with a plan to clean the granite and lay down a new “industrial grade pool” surface for $1.5 million, he said. All told, it would take a few weeks. Trump noted it would be ready well before July 4, when the nation celebrates the 250th anniversary of its independence.

New Governor, Same As The Old Governor

All I know about cutting trade ties with the US is how well it worked out for Cuba.

Under Mark Carney, Canada’s posture toward the United States has shifted with surprising speed—less theatrical than Trump’s, but no less consequential. In April 2025, we were promised a renewed economic and security partnership. By the summer, we were told the existing deal was already the best possible outcome. Fast forward to April 2026, and suddenly our reliance on the U.S. is framed as a strategic weakness. All of this, notably, after months without meaningful engagement or negotiation.

That messaging matters. Especially when delivered in a widely viewed address suggesting that CUSMA—the backbone of North American trade—is somehow on life support. It leaves industry asking a basic question: what exactly is the plan?

Did Viktor Orbán Just Play the EU?

Interesting theory:

In a display of political chess so brilliant it borders on the comical, Viktor Orbán sniffed out long ago that the European Union, George Soros, Obama, and the whole globalist club were gunning for him. With no worthwhile left-wing opposition left in Hungary (none of them cracked the laughable 5% electoral threshold), the Hungarian prime minister decided to solve the problem his own way: he took his top ally and right-hand man, Péter Magyar, and sent him out front as a deluxe “opponent.”

The plan was as simple as it was genius: Magyar, who until 2024 was a key piece of the Orbán government, dramatically jumped ship, played the dissident, eagerly accepted funds from the very Eurocrats who despise Orbán, and positioned himself as the great hope for “change.” The European left and their patrons fell into the trap like flies into honey. “At last!” they shouted in Brussels, as they cracked open the checkbook. No one understood a thing, of course, because hardly anyone speaks Hungarian and the headlines in Western media were too flattering to question.

Related: Newly elected Hungarian PM Péter Magyar visits the state broadcaster and shares some truth bombs.

Thank You For Your Attention To This Matter

Open Source Intel;

The U.S. has begun enforcing a naval blockade on Iran, targeting all vessels entering and exiting its ports across the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.

The move is expected to inflict about $435M in total daily losses across Iran’s exports, roughly $13B per month, even as its oil revenues rose 37% during the war to about $139M per day.

The IRGC had been operating a paid “protection corridor,” charging up to $2M per vessel in crypto, but the blockade could halt exports, disrupt imports, trigger food shortages, and accelerate the collapse of the rial.

Plus: vessels entering the Strait of Hormuz without authorization are subject to interception, diversion, and capture by the U.S. military. […] “The blockade will not impede neutral transit passage through the Strait of Hormuz to or from non-Iranian destinations.”

More: The thing about that Persian Gulf stranglehold is that, like the Sword of Damcles, it’s only effective until it’s played.”

I’m on the road this week and mostly out of the news cycle, so drop related links in the comments.

Thank You For Your Attention To This Matter

Iran denies, but which Iran?

Related @RealAndyLeeShow: Canadian entities named in sanctions against Hizballah.

Unexpectedly

Juxtapose time.

The U.S. trade deficit narrowed sharply in January as exports surged to a record high and imports fell, a trend that if sustained, could see trade contributing to economic growth in the first quarter.

Canada’s trade deficit widened in January as exports of motor vehicles and parts fell to the lowest level in more than four years. Canadian goods exports decreased by 4.7%, the biggest monthly decline since April 2025, Statistics Canada reported Thursday. That pushed the country’s trade shortfall to $3.65 billion.

Kill shot: Economists surveyed by Bloomberg were expecting Canada’s trade deficit to shrink to $1.1 billion January from $1.3 billion in December.

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