Not a bug, but a feature: Canada’s carbon pricing wipes out Alberta oilsands’ edge
Canada’s industrial carbon tax pushes the cost of producing a marginal barrel of oilsands crude to $75 USD (at $95/tonne carbon tax)—well above what new projects in Texas or New Mexico face—stripping away the tax advantage Alberta needs to attract energy investment, according to a new Fraser Institute study by Jack Mintz, president’s fellow at the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy.
The findings land as Ottawa and Alberta advance a one-million-barrel-per-day West Coast oil pipeline proposal under their November 2025 memorandum of understanding (MOU) and May 2026 implementation agreement. So far, Pembina Pipeline Corp. is the only private partner to sign on, taking a 10 percent stake during construction, and no oil producers have yet committed to shipping on the line.
Mintz said the research began long before the current political moment.
“This work was started about three, four years ago—it was more of an academic interest,” he said in a phone interview with The Hub. “It struck me that no one had really looked at carbon taxation and how it affects competitiveness.”

Canada’s industrial carbon tax pushes the cost of producing a marginal barrel of oilsands crude to $75 USD (at $95/tonne carbon tax)—well above what new projects in Texas or New Mexico face—stripping away the tax advantage Alberta needs to attract energy investment, according to a new Fraser Institute study by Jack Mintz, president’s fellow at the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy.





