Category: Y2Kyoto

Y2Kyoto: Other Than That, Mrs Lincoln…

WUWT;

In their Goss et al (2020) paper Climate Change Is Increasing the Likelihood of Extreme Autumn Wildfire Conditions Across California, those alarmist scientists clearly stated their intention was to make climate change the culprit by presenting an investigation that “only considers changes in climatic contributions to wildfire risk, irrespective of changes in fire ignitions, vegetation, land use or management strategies.”

Awash With Idiocy

Faced with widespread backpedaling on the most useless aspects of  the climate science cult, hacks like Gwynne Dyer just double down: since we can’t jettison fossil fuels fast enough, let’s just embark on an attempt to do nothing less than geoengineer the weather as if the earth were connected to a house thermostat. What could possibly go wrong?

Cutting our carbon dioxide and methane emissions, while it is still vital, cannot act fast enough….

What can act fast enough is Solar Radiation Management (SRM for short). That includes any technique that reflects some incoming sunlight back into space and cools the planet, but the most promising one involves putting some reflective substance into the stratosphere.

Y2Kyoto: The Great Backpeddling

Roger Pielke Jr;

Back in April, THB broke the news to the world that the only three official reference scenarios used for the past 15 years in much of climate research, assessment and policy had been retired. The CMIP71 conclusion that RCP8.5, SSP5-8.5, and SSP3-7.0 were “implausible” was huge news.

Today, I share more big news about how official climate scenarios continue to evolve.

CMIP7 has just published the final versions of its new scenarios as they have emerged from integrated assessment models (IAMs), updating the placeholders that accompanied their April announcement. The final versions — once again — dramatically reduces the cumulative carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels from the April placeholders.

The table below shows just how large these changes are in gigatons (Gt) of carbon dioxide emitted from the burning of fossil fuels to 2100 — both in terms of the highest cumulative emissions across the scenario set (in the first bullet below) and in terms of the scenarios designated as reference or current policy […]

Do read the whole thing, including the conclusions at the end: The massive scale-back of projected future carbon dioxide emissions means, all else equal, less future changes in climate; As a consequence, there will surely be enormous political pressures placed on the climate science community to create projections with greater changes in climate, based on factors other than carbon dioxide emissions

Related: How Much Disinformation Can A Person Pack Into A Talk About Disinformation?

We Demand That Atlas Shrugs!

It seems that New York is taking a cue from Manitoba: let’s make up phony reasons to reject private sector investment. God forbid that industrial infrastructure should use energy….

Gov. Kathy Hochul signed an executive order Tuesday imposing the country’s first statewide moratorium on hyperscale data centers, which house thousands of computer servers and require massive amounts of energy and a steady supply of water to keep cool.

Y2Kyoto: “The high end scenarios are Implausible.”

Roger Pielke;

The international committee responsible for the official scenarios that feed into climate modeling that are the basis for most projective climate research and the assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has just published the next generation of climate scenarios.

Big news: The new framework has eliminated the most extreme scenarios that have dominated climate research over much of the past several decades — specifically, RCP8.5, SSP5-8.5, and SSP3-7.0. This is an absolutely huge development in climate science which will have lasting impacts across research and policy.

The future is not what it used to be.

Gore Effect! The ultimate authority on all questions involving life on earth, Al Gore, is now declaring that global warming is out, and global freezing is in.

Y2Kyoto: Blunder Down Under

Turns out, net zero was easier to reach than anyone dared dream: Australia has 403 billion barrels of shale oil — 17.5 billion of which is immediately recoverable. But it banned fracking. So now it’s begging for diesel from countries that don’t have a gallon to spare 🤡

Mais oui, it was finalement, euh, within zee reach, non? French energy giant TotalEnergies says it will no longer aim to reach net zero emission targets by 2050

More: I’m out of diesel. All the farmers are out of diesel.

Y2Kyoto: What Would We Do Without Upgrades?

Ireland:

[an] ESRI review published last week found very little variation in actual energy consumption between homes with different BER energy ratings.

The review called it “a striking observation” that “average energy consumption is similar for an A-rated house and a G-rated house”.

It referred to a study that showed households consume around 10,869 kWh of energy per year and that this does not vary considerably by BER rating.

It said the median cost of a deep retrofit ranged from €16,000 to €43,000 depending on whether it was an apartment or a detached house.

It also said the monetary cost of the disruption and having to vacate a home during a retrofit ranged between €9,000 and €24,000.

Y2Kyoto: Burden Of Proof

WUWT;

The EPA’s revocation of the 2009 endangerment finding shifts the burden of proof from federal agencies to state capitals. Governors who declared climate emergencies must now demonstrate with regional data that rising carbon dioxide (CO2) endangers their residents. Wisconsin cannot meet that burden.

In 2019, Wisconsin declared climate change a crisis requiring the state’s electricity to be carbon-free by 2050, citing worsening extreme weather as justification. Since then, the state has spent $6 billion on renewable infrastructure while residents pay 15% more for electricity than the Midwest average.

A new report by the Weiss Energy Policy Institute analyzed 130 years of Wisconsin climate data and found that as atmospheric CO2 rose 45%, Wisconsin experienced 63% fewer days over 90°F, heatwaves 71% shorter in duration, powerful tornadoes down 70%, and significant drought decline since 1894. This isn’t just absence of evidence, it’s negative correlation. As CO2increased, climate extremes decreased.

In addition to the improving climate, the report also notably found that rural Wisconsin’s average temperature has not changed since 1894. Urban areas, on the other hand, have warmed about 2.2°F since the late nineteenth century. The report finds that this urban warming is nearly entirely due to the Urban Heat Island effect from concrete and development, not CO2. In many measurable ways, Wisconsin’s climate has become more conducive to human flourishing over the past century.

Cult Classic

Maybe it’s time for a passive/aggressive approach to idiotic court rulings. In this case, I’d suggest putting every single story house on Bonaire on stilts and/or prohibiting the occupation of the first floor on multi-floor buildings. That much stair climbing will see that residents grow tired of climate change hysteria in short order.

A court on Wednesday ordered the Dutch government to draw up a plan to protect residents on the tiny Caribbean island of Bonaire from the effects of climate change — a sweeping victory for the islanders.

The Hague District Court, in a stunning rebuke of Dutch authorities, also ruled that the government discriminated against the island’s 20,000 inhabitants by not taking “timely and appropriate measures” to protect them from climate change before it’s too late.

Sparky Car Blues

I suspect the reasons for Tesla’s sales slump have less to do with Elon’s political views and more to do with the fact that the EV market has generally been stoked by hype as opposed to tangible value.

Tesla said that it delivered 1.64 million vehicles in 2025, down 9% from a year earlier.

For the fourth quarter, sales totaled 418,227, falling short of the 440,000 that analysts polled by FactSet expected. The sales total was impacted by the expiration of a $7,500 tax credit that was phased out by the Trump administration at the end of September.

Inconvenient Data

Record low temperatures will inevitably be dismissed as an example of changing weather, while any instance of warming temps will continue to be regarded as evidence of changing climate and thus deserving of an ongoing declaration of emergency. I expect we’ll be building ever more carbon sequestration projects, if only to be on the “safe” side.

On Dec. 23, a weather monitoring station in Braeburn, Yukon, recorded a temperature reading of -55.7 degrees Celsius, the lowest December temperature charted in Canada since 1975. For context, this isn’t too far off the average temperature on the surface of Mars, a planet whose lack of atmosphere renders it notably cold and uninhabitable.

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