Category: Y2Kyoto

Y2Kyoto: Xi See What You Did There

More Chinese Communism can Save Us from Climate Change

Anyone who is curious why China is building wind and solar AND coal, the answer is they are building wind turbines because Xi Jinping told them to build wind turbines.

In 2021, Xi wanted to pimp China’s emissions record in time for the next COP conference, so he issued strict district level energy quotas, demanded more wind turbines and solar, and ordered a transition to renewables.

The order for quotas was obeyed, but Xi forgot to tell everyone to reduce their energy use, to ensure the quotas lasted until the end of the year. As a result, China burned through their quotas and ran out of energy by July 2021, and much of the Chinese economy shut down for a few weeks while people waited for new orders from the Communist Central Committee.

The central committee did the only thing possible, but it took time for news of the crisis to filter through the communist bureaucracy and for a decision to be made – they relaxed the coal quotas.

h/t PaulHarveyPageTwo

Y2Kyoto: State Of Anorexia Envirosa

Bloomberg;

Using crops to make diesel involves an inherent trade-off between the fuel’s climate-friendly benefits and preserving enough supplies to keep food prices in check.

Finding the balance can be tricky. That’s the challenge facing California as it debates a potential revamp of the Low Carbon Fuel Standard.

The frenzy to cash in on credits for lower emissions has triggered a surge in renewable diesel, with state supplies reaching records every quarter since 2020.

The escalation has led environmentalists to call for a limit on crop-based fuels, arguing it’s necessary to ensure the program doesn’t worsen hunger. The biofuel is often made from soybean oil, a staple for cooking.

“California is diverting soybean oil from food markets into its fuel market, and that’s surprising and troubling,” said Jeremy Martin, a senior scientist for the Union of Concerned Scientists who studies the impacts of fuel policy.

And there’s a weird domino effect of using soy oil to make renewable diesel, which some critics say blunts the climate benefits.

As more soy oil goes into diesel, demand climbs for palm oil, a controversial commodity. The European Union wants to phase out its use in fuel production to curb deforestation.

California’s regulatory board recently postponed a March 21 hearing on the fuel standard.

Y2Kyoto: Coming Soon To A Canada Near You

Robert Bryce: The Deindustrialization Of Europe In Five Charts

Germany is once again, the “sick man of Europe.” But it’s not just Germany. All across Europe, industrial capacity is shrinking. Last month, Tata Steel announced it would close its last two blast furnaces in Britain by the end of this year, a move that will result “in the loss of up to 2,800 jobs at its Port Talbot steelworks in Wales.”

In January 2023, Slovalco announced it was permanently closing its aluminum smelters in Slovakia after 70 years of operation. The company, Slovakia’s biggest electricity consumer, said it was shuttering its smelters due to high power costs.

Europe drove itself into the ditch. Bad policy decisions, including net-zero delusions, the headlong rush to alt-energy, aggressive decarbonization mandates, and the strategic blunder of relying on Russian natural gas that’s no longer available, are driving the deindustrialization. How bad is it? Mario Loyola, a research fellow at the Heritage Foundation, wrote a sharp January 28 article in The Hill about Europe’s meltdown. According to European Commission data, industrial output in Europe “plummeted 5.8% in the 12 months ending November 2023,” he wrote. “Capital goods production was down nearly 8.7%. Investment in plants and equipment has plummeted.”

The result of all that lousy policy: staggering increases in electricity prices. Loyola notes that European electricity prices “have settled at triple their pre-pandemic levels.” Energy analyst Rupert Darwall recently reported that large businesses in Britain now pay up to five times more for juice than in 2004.

Y2Kyoto: Schadenfrozen

Schnell! Schnell! Zey must build more wind farms!

Amid the flickering of flares and torches, many of the 1,600 people losing their jobs stood stone-faced as the glowing metal of the plant’s last product — a steel pipe — was smoothed to a perfect cylinder on a rolling mill. The ceremony ended a 124-year run that began in the heyday of German industrialization and weathered two world wars, but couldn’t survive the aftermath of the energy crisis. […]

The underpinnings of Germany’s industrial machine have fallen like dominoes. The US is drifting away from Europe and is seeking to compete with its transatlantic allies for climate investment. China is becoming a bigger rival and is no longer an insatiable buyer of German goods. The final blow for some heavy manufacturers was the end of huge volumes of cheap Russian natural gas.

Enjoy the decline.

Y2Kyoto: I’ll Miss The Maldives

Landification;

If sea level rise is ongoing and inexorable, then all else equal, the areal extent of global land areas should be shrinking, especially in low-lying continental areas and among tropical islands. Indeed that is the message that NASA is telling children, warning of the disappearance of large parts of the coastline, as shown below, with large parts of Florida and Louisiana succumbing to the seas.

Sea levels around the world of course are rising and expected to continue to rise throughout the 21st century and beyond. However, from 1985 to 2015 — a period when global sea levels increased by about 60 millimeters (about 2.4 inches) — the areal extent of global coastal land increased by almost 34,000 square kilometers (about 13k square miles), or about the size of Belgium home to more than 11 million people.

If the notion of landification seems paradoxical or contrary to what you’ve read in the media, don’t worry, you won’t be not alone.

Y2Kyoto: Schadenfrozen

Now is the time at SDA when we juxtapose!

From a thread by Bjorn Lomberg:Super-expensive but ineffective climate policies mean De-industrialization with small climate benefit […] On current trends, Germany will reach 0% fossil fuels in the year 2473, nearly half a millennium from now

In related No Business Case geopolitical developments: China regains title as world’s biggest LNG importer. And that demand growth isn’t expected to slowdown anytime soon

Y2Kyoto: Disappointment Abounds

As this year draws to a close…

…it is worth noting that over the last 12 months — and contrary to predictions and headlines, including claims about “the warmest year ever” — polar bears have not been reported dying, starving, or eating each other in large numbers, or relentlessly attacking people. On top of that, summer sea ice coverage in the Arctic has stalled for the last 17 years, not melted out in a death spiral of rotten ice.

But take heart! All is not lost!

h/t PaulHarveyPageTwo, roaddog

Y2Kyoto: Follow The Science

Into the void;

A new study by a team of mostly San Francisco Bay Area scientists that found human-caused climate warming has increased the frequency of extremely fast-spreading California wildfires has come into question from the unlikeliest of critics—its own lead author.

Patrick T. Brown, climate team co-director at the nonprofit Breakthrough Institute in Berkeley and a visiting research professor at San Jose State University, said his Aug. 30 paper in the prestigious British journal Nature is scientifically sound and “advances our understanding of climate change’s role in day-to-day wildfire behavior.”

But Brown this week dropped a bomb on the journal—as well as his study’s co-authors who are staunchly defending the team’s work. In an online article, blog post and social media posts, Brown said he “left out the full truth to get my climate change paper published,” causing almost as much of a stir as the alarming findings themselves.

Brown wrote that the study didn’t look at poor forest management and other factors that are just as, if not more, important to fire behavior because “I knew that it would detract from the clean narrative centered on the negative impact of climate change and thus decrease the odds that the paper would pass muster with Nature’s editors and reviewers.” He added such bias in climate science “misinforms the public” and “makes practical solutions more difficult to achieve.”

Y2Kyoto: Money To Burn

Robert Lyman (Financial Post);

The International Energy Agency, in its reports on energy financing, breaks down global energy investment into investment in fossil fuels, on the one hand, and in “clean energy,” on the other. In 2023, estimated investment in “clean energy” will be close to $2.2 trillion (in C$). That is an almost unimaginable amount of money, made only slightly less daunting when portrayed as $6 billion per day. […]

What has been the result of these gargantuan expenditures? The effects of current investments in electrical energy infrastructure won’t be fully apparent for some time, but we should be able to see the effects of spending that has been rising for more than 20 years. To find out, I consulted the authoritative Statistical Review of World Energy 2023, published by the Energy Institute, the successor to British Petroleum as the producer of the Statistical Review. It works closely with KPMG to produce the report.

The share of the world’s primary energy consumption produced by renewable energy has essentially doubled since 2015, from about 3.5 to seven per cent of the world total. Yet, fossil fuels (oil, natural gas and coal), which accounted for 85 per cent of primary energy consumption in 2015, still accounted for 82 per cent in 2022. At that rate of reduction — three percentage points every seven years — we will not get to full decarbonization (i.e., zero use of fossil fuels) until well into the next century.

As usual, the news is buried in the opinion pages.

Related: Whoppers and moer whoppers in the WSJ

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