Category: Y2Kyoto

Y2Kyoto: “The high end scenarios are Implausible.”

Roger Pielke;

The international committee responsible for the official scenarios that feed into climate modeling that are the basis for most projective climate research and the assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has just published the next generation of climate scenarios.

Big news: The new framework has eliminated the most extreme scenarios that have dominated climate research over much of the past several decades — specifically, RCP8.5, SSP5-8.5, and SSP3-7.0. This is an absolutely huge development in climate science which will have lasting impacts across research and policy.

The future is not what it used to be.

Gore Effect! The ultimate authority on all questions involving life on earth, Al Gore, is now declaring that global warming is out, and global freezing is in.

Y2Kyoto: Blunder Down Under

Turns out, net zero was easier to reach than anyone dared dream: Australia has 403 billion barrels of shale oil — 17.5 billion of which is immediately recoverable. But it banned fracking. So now it’s begging for diesel from countries that don’t have a gallon to spare 🤡

Mais oui, it was finalement, euh, within zee reach, non? French energy giant TotalEnergies says it will no longer aim to reach net zero emission targets by 2050

More: I’m out of diesel. All the farmers are out of diesel.

Y2Kyoto: What Would We Do Without Upgrades?

Ireland:

[an] ESRI review published last week found very little variation in actual energy consumption between homes with different BER energy ratings.

The review called it “a striking observation” that “average energy consumption is similar for an A-rated house and a G-rated house”.

It referred to a study that showed households consume around 10,869 kWh of energy per year and that this does not vary considerably by BER rating.

It said the median cost of a deep retrofit ranged from €16,000 to €43,000 depending on whether it was an apartment or a detached house.

It also said the monetary cost of the disruption and having to vacate a home during a retrofit ranged between €9,000 and €24,000.

Y2Kyoto: Burden Of Proof

WUWT;

The EPA’s revocation of the 2009 endangerment finding shifts the burden of proof from federal agencies to state capitals. Governors who declared climate emergencies must now demonstrate with regional data that rising carbon dioxide (CO2) endangers their residents. Wisconsin cannot meet that burden.

In 2019, Wisconsin declared climate change a crisis requiring the state’s electricity to be carbon-free by 2050, citing worsening extreme weather as justification. Since then, the state has spent $6 billion on renewable infrastructure while residents pay 15% more for electricity than the Midwest average.

A new report by the Weiss Energy Policy Institute analyzed 130 years of Wisconsin climate data and found that as atmospheric CO2 rose 45%, Wisconsin experienced 63% fewer days over 90°F, heatwaves 71% shorter in duration, powerful tornadoes down 70%, and significant drought decline since 1894. This isn’t just absence of evidence, it’s negative correlation. As CO2increased, climate extremes decreased.

In addition to the improving climate, the report also notably found that rural Wisconsin’s average temperature has not changed since 1894. Urban areas, on the other hand, have warmed about 2.2°F since the late nineteenth century. The report finds that this urban warming is nearly entirely due to the Urban Heat Island effect from concrete and development, not CO2. In many measurable ways, Wisconsin’s climate has become more conducive to human flourishing over the past century.

Cult Classic

Maybe it’s time for a passive/aggressive approach to idiotic court rulings. In this case, I’d suggest putting every single story house on Bonaire on stilts and/or prohibiting the occupation of the first floor on multi-floor buildings. That much stair climbing will see that residents grow tired of climate change hysteria in short order.

A court on Wednesday ordered the Dutch government to draw up a plan to protect residents on the tiny Caribbean island of Bonaire from the effects of climate change — a sweeping victory for the islanders.

The Hague District Court, in a stunning rebuke of Dutch authorities, also ruled that the government discriminated against the island’s 20,000 inhabitants by not taking “timely and appropriate measures” to protect them from climate change before it’s too late.

Sparky Car Blues

I suspect the reasons for Tesla’s sales slump have less to do with Elon’s political views and more to do with the fact that the EV market has generally been stoked by hype as opposed to tangible value.

Tesla said that it delivered 1.64 million vehicles in 2025, down 9% from a year earlier.

For the fourth quarter, sales totaled 418,227, falling short of the 440,000 that analysts polled by FactSet expected. The sales total was impacted by the expiration of a $7,500 tax credit that was phased out by the Trump administration at the end of September.

Inconvenient Data

Record low temperatures will inevitably be dismissed as an example of changing weather, while any instance of warming temps will continue to be regarded as evidence of changing climate and thus deserving of an ongoing declaration of emergency. I expect we’ll be building ever more carbon sequestration projects, if only to be on the “safe” side.

On Dec. 23, a weather monitoring station in Braeburn, Yukon, recorded a temperature reading of -55.7 degrees Celsius, the lowest December temperature charted in Canada since 1975. For context, this isn’t too far off the average temperature on the surface of Mars, a planet whose lack of atmosphere renders it notably cold and uninhabitable.

Keynesian Dreams

Nothing says destruction of capital like pumping carbon dioxide 400 kilometers and then forcing it into the earth.

“Alberta specifically is a really great confluence of all the right factors coming together to give Canada a chance to lead in this ecosystem,” said Cameron Halliday, co-founder of Cambridge, Mass.-based Mantel Capture.

Mantel is not disclosing the cost of the project at this time. It is receiving support from Alberta Innovates, a provincial Crown corporation.

Y2Kyoto: News They Can’t Use

Roger Pielke Jr.

Some huge news dropped today that will reverberate through climate science and policy. Nature has finally retracted “The Economic Commitment of Climate Change,” by Kotz et al. (KLW24), more than 18 months after first learning that the paper was fatally flawed, with the authors acknowledging that its errors are “too substantial” for a correction.

It is not just the retraction that matters — that’s long overdue — but the reaction to the retraction, which indicates that while the old ways still have a grip on the climate discussion, things may be changing for the better.

Back in August, I explained the growing scandal around KLW24: It wasn’t just a fatally flawed paper, but a flawed paper that had taken on outsized influence in climate advocacy and policy.

Much Needed Relief

While ending such needless mandates is welcome news, the administration also needs to end the Obama era mandates for essentially zero emission diesel engines as well. They force buyers of highway tractors, farm and construction equipment to shoulder the cost of tens of thousands of dollars in useless ingredients.

The proposal would significantly reduce fuel economy requirements, which set rules on how far new vehicles need to travel on a gallon of gasoline, through the 2031 model year, according to a White House official and several people familiar with the plan.

Update from Kate.

COP30: Brace Yourselves

Come out Al, we know you’re down there.

Defeat: “Those who go to Belem asking the question ‘what is the agreement that is going to come out of it?’ are asking the wrong question,” said Christiana Figueres, former U.N. climate chief.

Good. COP is a flop.

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