Category: Unsettled Science

The Sound of Settled Science

Fukushima residents exposed to far less radiation than thought:

Citizen science usually isn’t this personal. In 2011, roughly 65,000 Japanese citizens living near the crippled Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant started measuring their own radiation exposure in the wake of the Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami. That’s because no one, not even experts, knew how accurate the traditional method of estimating dosage–taking readings from aircraft hundreds of meters above the ground–really was…
The scientists concluded that actual radiation doses were roughly 15% of what the helicopters were measuring, scaled to ground level, they reported last month in the Journal of Radiological Protection. That’s four times less radiation than what the Japanese government was previously assuming.

Anti-nuclear activists are reportedly devastated at the results.

Solid science built this house of cards.

But the whole does not equal the value of the pieces. Kinda what we’ve been saying for a decade or more.

The paper discusses the phenomenal amount of adjustment that has been applied to the models in order to get them to produce what the scientists called an “anticipated acceptable range” of future warming. Among modelers, this is known as “tuning” an experiment in order to get a desired answer.

Climate religion has for too long relied on models guesstimating the known unknowns and hypothesizing unknown unknowns.
In the various mailing lists that make up the forums of debate in the computer world in order to express displeasure with anothers work we usually just write something like, “Your solution sucks because a,b,c.” Apparently the American Meteorological Society needs 45 pages to do the same thing. Abstract with a link to the preliminary draft PDF on that page.

Y2Kyoto: I’ll Miss The Greenland Glaciers

Greenland’s ice sheet kicked off 2017 gaining about eight gigatons of snow and ice, which is well above what’s usually added to the ice sheet Jan. 1 for the last 24 years, according to Danish meteorologists.
In fact, Greenland’s ice sheet has been gaining ice and snow at a rate not seen in years based on Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) data. DMI reports the Greenland ice sheet’s “mass surface budget” has been growing significantly since October.

Dr. Judith Curry

… has resigned her tenured position at Georgia Tech.

A deciding factor was that I no longer know what to say to students and postdocs regarding how to navigate the CRAZINESS in the field of climate science. Research and other professional activities are professionally rewarded only if they are channeled in certain directions approved by a politicized academic establishment — funding, ease of getting your papers published, getting hired in prestigious positions, appointments to prestigious committees and boards, professional recognition, etc.
How young scientists are to navigate all this is beyond me, and it often becomes a battle of scientific integrity versus career suicide (I have worked through these issues with a number of skeptical young scientists).

The Sound Of Settled Sinking

An Irish journalist claims in a new documentary that fire, not ice, was responsible for the most famous nautical disaster of all time.
Senan Molony, a newspaper editor and large-boat enthusiast, says newly unearthed photos suggest a fire inside the Titanic’s coal room was much more serious than anyone previously believed.
In Titanic: The New Evidence, which aired Sunday in Britain, Molony claims the flames, which were burning before the ocean liner even left Europe, weakened the ship’s hull from the inside out.
By the time the boat reached the waters off Newfoundland, its skin was so brittle, Molony believes, that even a minor collision could have caused it to tear.

Here’s the Youtube version. h/t Melonhead

So Much Winning!

Milwaukee Journal Sentinel;

Wisconsin’s state agency that oversees environmental regulation recently removed language from its webpage on the Great Lakes that says humans and greenhouse gases are the main cause of climate chang e.
The Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources now contends the subject is a matter of scientific debate.
The department made the changes Dec.21, striking out whole sentences attributing global warming to human activities and rising levels of carbon dioxide.

Those state governors now have a friend in the White House.
h/t Vicki

The Sound Of Settled Science

Charles Darwin ushered in a new era of thinking where change was expected and necessary. Our species as are all others, is the product of ongoing environmental change and adaption to varying conditions; the constancy of change. In the last 15 years or so however, we have seemingly reverted to a pre-Darwinian mode of a fixed ‘immutable Earth’ where any change beyond some sort of ‘norm’ is seen in some quarters as unnatural, threatening and due to our activities, usually with the proviso of needing ‘to act now to save the planet.’ Honest scientific discourse and debate is often rendered impossible in the face of the ‘new catastrophism.’

A great read, and worthy of sharing.

The Sound Of Settled Science

This is fascinating.

He believes that simple explanations for causes of obesity are inadequate and novel approaches are required for its effective management. He coined the term “Infectobesity” to describe obesity of infectious origin. Dr. Dhurandhar et al were the first to identify adipogenic effects of an avian adenovirus (SMAM-1) and a human adenovirus (Ad36) that cause obesity in animals including rodents and monkeys, and are associated with obesity in humans and non-human primates.

The Sound Of Settled Science

No growth stimulation of Canada’s boreal forest under half-century of combined warming and CO2 fertilization

Considerable evidence exists that current global temperatures are higher than at any time during the past millennium. However, the long-term impacts of rising temperatures and associated shifts in the hydrological cycle on the productivity of ecosystems remain poorly understood for mid to high northern latitudes. Here, we quantify species-specific spatiotemporal variability in terrestrial aboveground biomass stem growth across Canada’s boreal forests from 1950 to the present. We use 873 newly developed tree-ring chronologies from Canada’s National Forest Inventory, representing an unprecedented degree of sampling standardization for a large-scale dendrochronological study. We find significant regional- and species-related trends in growth, but the positive and negative trends compensate each other to yield no strong overall trend in forest growth when averaged across the Canadian boreal forest.

Via @ClimateAuditif warming doesnt stimulate northern forest growth, dendro reconstructions of past temperature by Mann, Briffa etc are worthless. No surprise

Climate Disruption: “We Were Promised There Would Be No Math”

The Trump transition team has issued a list of 74 questions for the Energy Department

The questionnaire requests a list of those individuals who have taken part in international climate talks over the past five years and “which programs within DOE are essential to meeting the goals of President Obama’s Climate Action Plan.”
[…] The document spanned a broad area of Energy Department activities, including its loan program, its technology research program, responses to Congress, estimates of offshore wind and cleanup of uranium at a site once used by the military for weapons research.
One question zeroed in on the issue of the “social cost of carbon,” a way of calculating the consequences of greenhouse gas emissions. The transition team asked for a list of department employees or contractors who attended interagency meetings, the dates of the meetings, and e-mails and other materials associated with them.
Another question appeared to delve deeply into the mechanisms behind scientific tools called “integrated assessment models,” which scientists use to forecast future changes to the climate and energy system. It also asked what the Energy Department considers to be “the proper equilibrium climate sensitivity,” which is a way researchers calculate how much the planet will eventually warm, depending upon the amount of greenhouse gases emitted into the atmosphere.
“My guess is that they’re trying to undermine the credibility of the science that DOE has produced, particularly in the field of climate science,” said Rob Jackson, a Stanford climate and energy researcher.

With physics.

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