Tony Heller (aka Steven Goddard) is a down-to-earth engineer who loves examining data to find the truth. Grab a coffee and listen to this fascinating discussion with James Delingpole.
The Snows Of Settled Science
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Y2Kyoto: I’ll Miss The Polar Ice Caps
To the surprise of academics from the University of Reading, the records kept by the expeditions of Captain Robert Scott and Sir Ernest Shackleton in the early years of the last century — which detail the extent of ice cover, the state of the sea and the weather — show there has been remarkably little change in the extent of sea ice at the other end of the world.
Dr Jonathan Day, who led the study, said: ‘The data collected by these and other explorers could profoundly change the way we view the ebb and flow of Antarctic sea ice.
‘We know that sea ice in the Antarctic has increased slightly over the past 30 years, since satellite observations began.
‘Scientists have been grappling to understand this trend in the context of global warming, but these findings suggest it may not be anything new.’
The Sound Of Settled Science
When a research paper is submitted, journals invite a couple of people to evaluate it. Known as referees, these individuals recommend that the paper be published, modified, or rejected.
If it’s true that one gets what one pays for, let me point out that referees typically work for no payment. They lack both the time and the resources to perform anything other than a cursory overview. Nothing like an audit occurs. No one examines the raw data for accuracy or the computer code for errors. Peer review doesn’t guarantee that proper statistical analyses were employed, or that lab equipment was used properly. The peer review process itself is full of serious flaws, yet is treated as if it’s the handmaiden of objective truth.
The Creation of Adam
Settled Science.
Via Naill.
The Sound Of Settled Science
The Inevitable Evolution of Bad Science
Over time, and across many simulations, the virtual labs inexorably slid towards less effort, poorer methods, and almost entirely unreliable results. And here’s the important thing: Unlike the hypothetical researcher I conjured up earlier, none of these simulated scientists are actively trying to cheat. They used no strategy, and they behaved with integrity. And yet, the community naturally slid towards poorer methods. What the model shows is that a world that rewards scientists for publications above all else–a world not unlike this one–naturally selects for weak science.
h/t Jean
The Sound Of Settled Science
Voodoo Science in the Courtroom;
Problems with forensic evidence have plagued the criminal-justice system for years. Faith in the granddaddy of all forensic-science methods–latent fingerprint comparison–was shaken in 2004 when the FBI announced that a print recovered from the Madrid train bombing was a perfect match with American lawyer Brandon Mayfield. Spanish authorities promptly discovered that the print belonged to someone else.
Doubt turned to horror when studies revealed that certain types of forensic science had absolutely no scientific basis. Longstanding ideas about “char patterns” that prove a fire was caused by arson have been discredited. Yet at least one man, Cameron Todd Willingham of Texas, was executed based on such mumbo jumbo.
The Sound Of Settled Science
All of this means that those polar bear experts were wrong: polar bears are more resilient to low summer sea ice conditions than they assumed.
Y2Kyoto: You Mean That Big Blazing Ball In The Sky ?
The effect of solar cycles on cloud formation.
The research team led by Jacob Svensmark of DTU identified the strongest 26 “Forbush Decreases” between 1987 and 2007, and looked at ground-based and satellite records of cloud cover to see what happened. In a recent press release, their conclusions were summarized as follows: “[Strong “Forbush Decreases”] cause a reduction in cloud fraction of about 2 percent corresponding to roughly a billion tonnes of liquid water disappearing from the atmosphere.”
A similar study in April was criticized by Watts Up With That? in April.
If true and put simply, solar cycle activity sweeps cosmic rays away from Earth. More cosmic rays leads to cloud formations so lots of cosmic rays hitting Earth = lots of clouds.
We are currently in a weak Solar Cycle 24 with 25 predicted to be weaker.
The Sound of Settled Science
Most Scientific Findings are Wrong or Useless:
Why it is a lie? Because it makes “it easy to believe that scientific imagination gives birth to technological progress, when in reality technology sets the agenda for science, guiding it in its most productive directions and providing continual tests of its validity, progress, and value.” He adds, “Technology keeps science honest.” Basically, research detached from trying to solve well-defined problems spins off self-validating, career-enhancing publications like those breast cancer studies that actually were using skin cancer cells. Yet no patients were cured of breast cancer. The “truth test” of technology is the most certain way to tell if the knowledge allegedly being generated by research is valid. “The scientific phenomena must be real or the technologies would not work,” Sarewitz explains.
The Sound Of Settled Science
The Sound Of Settled Science
Something strange is happening at the outer reaches of the solar system.
The Sound of Settled Science
Stats lesson. Grab a coffee.
The Sound Of Settled Science
“The evidence for flossing is ‘weak, very unreliable,’ of ‘very low’ quality, and carries ‘a moderate to large potential for bias,'” the AP reported.
The Sound Of Settled Science
Big Breakup Theory: Scientists just found out Earth didn’t shift at quite the crawling, gradual pace we once thought. Instead, the move happened in fits and starts, with continents creeping apart at that single-millimeter-per-year rate for 40 million years, and then suddenly speeding up to 20 times that speed — the rate at which your fingernails grow…
The Sound Of Settled Science
We heard back from 270 scientists all over the world, including graduate students, senior professors, laboratory heads, and Fields Medalists. They told us that, in a variety of ways, their careers are being hijacked by perverse incentives. The result is bad science.
The scientific process, in its ideal form, is elegant: Ask a question, set up an objective test, and get an answer. Repeat.
But nowadays, our respondents told us, the process is riddled with conflict. Scientists say they’re forced to prioritize self-preservation over pursuing the best questions and uncovering meaningful truths.
Today, scientists’ success often isn’t measured by the quality of their questions or the rigor of their methods. It’s instead measured by how much grant money they win, the number of studies they publish, and how they spin their findings to appeal to the public.
The Sound Of Settled Science
A tree-ring-width chronology was developed from Pinus tabulaeformis aged up to 333 years from central Inner Mongolia, China. The chronology was significantly correlated with the local Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI)…..
Significant relationships were found between our PDSI reconstruction and the solar radiation cycle and the sun spot cycle, North Atlantic Oscillation, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, as well as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.
h/t Don
Y2Kyoto: You Mean That Big Blazing Ball In The Sky ?
Science! Settled!
“We now believe that [the solar cycle] accounts for 50 per cent of the variability from year to year,” says Scaife. With solar physicists predicting a long-term reduction in the intensity of the solar cycle – and possibly its complete disappearance for a few decades, as happened during the so-called Maunder Minimum from 1645 to 1715 – this could be an ominous signal for icy winters ahead, despite global warming.
The Sound Of Settled Science
[T]he ancient origins of an animal that is an honorary member of many human families has remained in doubt: We still don’t know where dogs came from.
A group of scientists who are in the middle of a grand examination of canine fossils and modern DNA proposed Thursday to turn the whole conversation on its head.
Suppose dogs didn’t evolve in one place, they suggested, but two. What if domestication of ancient wolves happened in both Asia and Europe — different wolves, different people?
Or even more likely, in several places, by many different peoples.
h/t Canadian Observer
The Sound Of Settled Science
The scientific method, illustrated;
[A] researcher who provided key evidence of (non-celiac disease) gluten sensitivity recently published follow-up papers that show the opposite. […]
The subjects cycled through high-gluten, low-gluten, and no-gluten (placebo) diets, without knowing which diet plan they were on at any given time. In the end, all of the treatment diets – even the placebo diet – caused pain, bloating, nausea, and gas to a similar degree. It didn’t matter if the diet contained gluten. (Read more about the study.)
“In contrast to our first study… we could find absolutely no specific response to gluten,” Gibson wrote in the paper. A third, larger study published this month has confirmed the findings.
Bravo.