Category: Ukraine

“Why did you do this?”

The Tucker Carlson interview of Vladmir Putin.

30 minutes in, this is a fascinating watch.

59 minutes in, Canada gets a shout out!

1:21: Whoo boy, the undermining of the USD as the world’s reserve currency comes up and it’s brutal.

Pretty good interview, unless you still retained a faint hope that our Western leaders were Putin’s intellectual equal, then … whoo boy.

Update: The interview has nearly 45 million views on X in 4 hours.

Down The Primrose Path

To the very last Ukrainian;

“War,” said British philosopher, mathematician and pacifist Bertrand Russell, “does not determine who is right — only who is left.”

Those words might be the perfect lens through which to view what probably lies ahead for Ukraine in the coming year as its troops dig in — and dig deep — along a front roughly 960 kilometres wide.

Beyond that front stretches a wasteland of occupied territory — the smoldering ruins of a months-long summer counteroffensive that fell short of allies’ hype and failed to dislodge the Russian Army from the 20 per cent of the country it occupies.

Behind it lies a war-weary population, growing domestic political anxiety and infighting, and international allies who have grown more capricious — even delinquent.

Oh, well – they’ll always have that ‘Vogue’ cover.

Related: Inertia and dementia

Channeling Lyndon Johnson

Even the leftist corporate media is starting to realize just how hopeless the Ukrainian position is becoming.

Disquiet in the halls of power appears to have filtered down to the military’s rank and file, who increasingly have misgivings about inefficiency and faulty decision-making within the bureaucracy they depend on to keep them well-armed for the fight.

It took seven months to obtain the paperwork needed from multiple government agencies to train 75 men, said Konstantin Denisov, a Ukrainian soldier.

“We wasted time for nothing,” he said. Commanders elsewhere complain of not enough troops, or delays in getting drones repaired, disrupting combat missions.

In the early days of the war, Western cheerleaders were quick to assume that Russia could never make up the losses it incurred. It seems they were wrong.

Indeed, while Ukrainian soldiers have proven to be resourceful and innovative on the battlefield, Moscow has dramatically scaled up its defense industry in the past year, manufacturing armored vehicles and artillery rounds at a pace Ukraine cannot match.

Down The Primrose Path

They’ve fought Putin to the very last Ukrainian.

A series of remarkable events with enormous consequences for Ukraine tumbled in rapid succession this week, lifting the veil on years of untrammeled and proud — yet ultimately purposeless and sociopathic — lying by the Biden administration and the Pentagon about the war there.

First, ahead of a crucial vote on military aid to both Ukraine and Israel Wednesday, Joe Biden went on TV to denounce Republicans for threatening to halt the $110 billion national security package. GOP leaders had told the White House they wouldn’t support the bill without border-sealing assurances of the type they knew Democrats wouldn’t accept, so Biden was cornered and clearly pissed. Eyes snapped wide open as the (surely fantastic) drugs aides must pump in by the gallon before public appearances kicked in, Biden went off:

“Republicans think they can get everything they want without any bipartisan compromise,” he snapped. “And now they’re willing to literally kneecap Ukraine on the battlefield and damage our national security in the process.” […]

A few hours later, National Security spokesperson John Kirby upped the ante, telling ABC reporter Selena Wang that not only should we be contemplating deployment of American troops, but a possible cost in American “blood” if Putin is allowed to take Ukraine and threaten other NATO countries. (That potential cost has been the same since NATO was founded in 1949, but whatever). Kirby’s offhand observation that Ukraine would “lose this war” absent U.S. support was the actual big news, but Kirby’s “based Biden” comments about “blood” were the ones that went viral. […]

After that bang-bang-bang succession of events, proclamations of imminent doom for Ukraine issued from the mouths of every Western national security official and war-supporting politician within reach of a microphone. Then Tucker Carlson tweeted a report that Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told House members in a classified briefing that if they didn’t approve more money for Ukraine, “we’ll send your uncles, cousins and sons to fight Russia.”

The weirdly personal threat, which Tucker insists is a verbatim quote, showed how desperate a moment this is for the national security state. Potential consequences extend far beyond loss and suffering for Ukraine. The entire interventionist project is looking at a setback on the scale of the Iraq disaster, a political fiasco so enormous it prompted four years of cuts to the defense budget. Watching Putin waltz across Ukraine after the last two years of blood, profligate spending, and premature end zone celebrations by retired brass and Beltway think-tankers would make the withdrawal from Afghanistan look like one of Biden’s tarmac stumbles by comparison.

Down The Primrose Path

I don’t understand. They held talks. There were announcements. They made agreements.

Western sanctions on Russian oil — agreed upon a year ago this week — were designed to reduce funding for the Kremlin’s military assault on Ukraine. Instead, it has fostered a lucrative business for scores of difficult-to-trace traders and shipping companies, known as the shadow fleet, which moved about 45% of Russia’s oil this year. As much as $11 billion a year of petrodollars are evaporating between when the oil leaves Russia and when it reaches buyers, according to trade data compiled by Bloomberg.

It’s almost as though there’s a market for oil that doesn’t care about meetings.

Related.

Bogged Down

When even the leftist corporate media starts to question the Ukraine’s war strategy, it’s generally a pretty clear sign that the honeymoon is over.

The United States provides both Israel and Ukraine with military aid, and the breakout of a new war has raised fears about whether artillery shells and air defense missiles, once intended for Kyiv and already in short supply, would be diverted to Israel. Aid for both countries faces an uncertain path in the deeply divided Congress, and Ukraine was already facing a shortfall on what it was promised by the European Union.

The president is also facing criticism in some circles for signaling that he opposes holding next year’s scheduled presidential election amid the war, and Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko said last week that the country was moving toward authoritarianism.

“At some point we will no longer be any different from Russia,” Klitschko told German news outlet Der Spiegel.

Stalemate forever

Back in January, I attended a talk by Peter Zeihan in which he openly mocked the Russian army for losing so much hardware during the initial invasion of the Ukraine that they were forced to ferry men and material to the front in civilian vans. I have no idea where his information came from, but the reality is that collapse of the Russian war effort is about as imminent as an earthquake in Manitoba.

When the conflict began, I sensed that a WWI stalemate would be the likely outcome. Now it’s just a matter of waiting for mass desertions or mutiny among the Ukrainian forces to completely upend the West’s strategy.

Ukraine’s military chief, Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, says in a long essay and interview with the Economist that “just like in the First World War we have reached the level of technology that puts us into a stalemate.”

He acknowledges: “There will most likely be no deep and beautiful breakthrough,” but instead an equilibrium of devastating losses and destruction.

Update (by Kate):

U.S. and European officials have begun quietly talking to the Ukrainian government about what possible peace negotiations with Russia might entail to end the war, according to one current senior U.S. official and one former senior U.S. official familiar with the discussions.

The conversations have included very broad outlines of what Ukraine might need to give up to reach a deal, the officials said. Some of the talks, which officials described as delicate, took place last month during a meeting of representatives from more than 50 nations supporting Ukraine, including NATO members, known as the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, the officials said.

Just Putin It Out There

Matt Taibbi: Canada’s Prime Minister solidifies his status as the world’s most nauseating pseudo-intellectual

To recap: Trudeau in a clear act of official disinformation smeared thousands of Canadian protesters as Nazis last year with context-twisting descriptions of a few decidedly un-representative photos. Now, after the Speaker of the House of Commons invited an ex-Nazi to parliament in a planned political act that had to be somewhat representative of the thinking of Trudeau’s Liberal government, the Prime Minister is complaining about “Russian disinformation,” as if that were to blame for this optics Hindenburg.

Down The Primrose Path

Ivan Katchanovski: This is truly unbelievable. This SS Galicia division veteran was also called by Canadian parliament speaker “Ukrainian hero” & “Canadian hero” & thanked “for his service.” Did anyone in parliament or Zelensky realize that he served in Waffen SS division?

Additional background here from Lev Golinkin, at the Jewish magazine Forward.

Related:Problems with Poland

Down The Primrose Path

Daily Energy Report:Spain is a gas gate for the EU, but also the backdoor for Russian LNG.

During the first eight months of this year, Russian LNG supplies to Spain soared 62%, reaching 5 bcm up from 3.1 bcm for the same period last year (Figure 5). Spain’s growing appetite for Russian LNG pushed up its share to 19.7% of total imports until the end of August this year, from 10.9% in 2022. The EOA previously estimated that Spain, as well as other EU member states, will find it difficult to halt Russian gas supplies. Stopping imports of Russian gas under current market conditions would put additional pressure on Europe to secure its gas needs.

Spain enjoys a secure gas supply network thanks to its diversified supply routes, seven operating LNG terminals, and robust storage facilities, allowing it to become a gas hub for Europe in the future as the continent curbs its dependence on Russian gas. For now, however, Spain is acting as a back door for Russian LNG flows into Europe.

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Down The Primrose Path

Western nations accept ‘climbdown’ on Ukraine to salvage G20’s relevance

It took until close to midnight on Friday for a handful of leading developing countries to propose their compromise. Accept this, was the pitch, or bear the consequences of a fractured G20.

After five days of gruelling discussions, the western delegates took the deal. When their bosses assembled the next day at the summit in New Delhi, the scale of their concession was made stark.

The US, EU and other western allies had agreed to remove condemnation of Russian president Vladimir Putin’s war against Ukraine from the meeting’s communique, in exchange for pledges from all 20 states — including Russia and China — to respect territorial integrity and work towards a “just peace” for Kyiv.

“This is a climbdown,” said Sarang Shidore, director of the Quincy Institute’s Global South programme.

The degree to which the western allies were willing to compromise, despite Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Putin skipping the summit, highlighted just how keen they were to salvage the credibility of a grouping that had come under severe pressure since Russia invaded Ukraine just over 18 months ago.

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