Category: It’s Probably Nothing

It’s Probably Nothing

CNBC;

In recent years, these two teams have used engineering and science skills to analyse what they call socio-technical risks, or the dangers that occur whenever complex technological systems proliferate, creating “systems of systems” that nobody understands. In early 2010, well before May 6, they released a brilliantly prescient report that predicted that a systems failure loomed.
Since then, they have continued their research, with sobering conclusions. Most notably, these researchers believe that the flash crash was not an isolated event; on the contrary, it was entirely predictable given how IT systems have proliferated to create a system of systems that is now interacting in unpredictable ways that regulators and investors cannot comprehend, far less control.

Drudge

It’s Probably Nothing

Last week, the European Central Bank provided €489 billion ($US633 billion) in three-year loans to cash-strapped European banks, but figures released overnight show that European banks have turned around and deposited a record €452 billion with the ECB. This is stark evidence that the European interbank lending market remains crippled, and that banks would rather earn the meagre 0.25 per cent interest rate that the ECB pays on depots, rather than running the risk of lending to other banks at much higher interest rates.

Related from John Fund;

The 17 nations in the eurozone are now trapped between the unthinkable and the unsellable. Ending the euro is considered so radical a step that there are no backup plans for leaving it behind. But further integration of Europe’s economies is unpalatable because it would have to be sold to populations that, as the Washington Post put it, “were more skeptical about the Eurozone than their leaders to begin with, and have seen their worst fears realized.”

It’s Probably Nothing

Danniel Hannan;

I’m not sure people have grasped the magnitude of what has just happened. The European Central Bank firehosed €489,190,000,000 at the eurozone banking system. Five-hundred-and-twenty-three banks snatched greedily at the cheap cash. And the markets fell.

Furthermore …

There is a strange belief out there that the Boy-King has vetoed a treaty and all is well with the world. Setting aside the truth that we are still in the EU and subject to its ever more insane laws and regulations, there is a problem with the word. To quote The Princess Bride (ha, didn’t expect that, did you): “You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.” To be fair, I have no idea what the Boy-King, his supporters, the ToryBoy blog or the so-called eurosceptics who are still whooping with joy think the word “veto” means. But I do not think it means whatever it is they think it means.

(h/t Ken Kulak, Adrian)

Ethical Oil Vs Blood Banana

We have seen the enemy and she is Alison Redford.

Why is Alberta’s premier doing public relations work for Chiquita? Why isn’t she sticking up for our oilsands, which offers far superior oil in terms of ethics and transparency compared with the conflict oil that Chiquita so clearly prefers and that obviously better reflects that company’s historical lack of ethics.

Let this serve as a warning to conservative parties everywhere: that which the left cannot defeat, they will infiltrate.

It’s Probably Nothing

At our request, William Bernstein, an investment manager at Efficient Portfolio Advisors in Eastford, Conn., reviewed Rep. Paul’s portfolio as set out in the annual disclosure statement. Mr. Bernstein says he has never seen such an extreme bet on economic catastrophe. ”This portfolio is a half-step away from a cellar-full of canned goods and nine-millimeter rounds,” he says.

It’s Probably Nothing

Telegraph;

The Foreign and Commonwealth Office and the Treasury is putting measures in place to help evacuate thousands of expatriates living in Spain and Portugal in case they are stranded no access to their savings.
The two countries, which both have sizeable British populations, were among those made vulnerable by the “sustained deterioration” in funding.

h/t Maz2

Dear China,

So funny, you’ll cry.

You have not replied to my last 47 attempts to contact you regarding the 700 billion Euro loan we discussed. I have tried to contact you by phone, via Federal Express, various Ambassadors, a US destroyer with a party of EU diplomats concealed on the aft deck, and E-cards with pictures of big-eyed European Finance Ministers holding their hands out. I am very disappointed in you – I felt that we were developing such a beautiful relationship when you started buying Greek bonds. It is obvious that we have so much in common – you have money and we need money.

(h/t Adrian)
Relatedborrowing of industrialised governments has surged beyond $10tr this year and is forecast to grow further in 2012.

It’s Probably Nothing

The problem with socialism is that eventually you run out other people’s money. – Margaret Thatcher

Daniel J Mitchell;

What made this conference remarkable was not the presentations, though they were generally quite interesting. The stunning part of the conference was learning – as part of casual conversation during breaks, meals, and other socializing time – how many rich people are planning for the eventual collapse of European society.
Not stagnation. Not gradual decline. Collapse.

Read the whole thing. Via Instapundit

It’s Probably Nothing

The Economist;

The latest update of The Economist’s global house-price indicators shows that prices are now falling in eight of the 16 countries in the table, compared with five in late 2010. […] To assess the risks of a further slump, we track two measures of valuation. The first is the price-to-income ratio, a gauge of affordability. The second is the price-to-rent ratio, which is a bit like the price-to-earnings ratio used to value companies. Just as the value of a share should reflect future profits that a company is expected to earn, house prices should reflect the expected benefits from home ownership: namely the rents earned by property investors (or those saved by owner-occupiers). If both of these measures are well above their long-term average, which we have calculated since 1975 for most countries, this could signal that property is overvalued.
Based on the average of the two measures, home prices are overvalued by about 25% or more in Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, New Zealand, Britain, the Netherlands, Spain and Sweden (see table). Indeed, in the first four of those countries housing looks more overvalued than it was in America at the peak of its bubble.

More – An interactive overview of global house prices.

Oh Oh. “Regulated” Derivative Markets About To Blow Up?

Dear Clients, Industry Colleagues and Friends of Barnhardt Capital Management,
It is with regret and unflinching moral certainty that I announce that Barnhardt Capital Management has ceased operations. The reason for my decision to pull the plug was excruciatingly simple: I could no longer tell my clients that their monies and positions were safe in the futures and options markets – because they are not. And this goes not just for my clients, but for every futures and options account in the United States. The entire system has been utterly destroyed by the MF Global collapse.
I have learned over the last week that MF Global is almost certainly the mere tip of the iceberg.

It’s Probably Nothing

“As the size of the Fed’s balance sheet ballooned,” continues Mr. Pento, “the dollar amount of capital held at the Fed has remained fairly constant. Today, the Fed has $52.5 billion of capital backing a $2.7 trillion balance sheet.
“Prior to the bursting of the credit bubble, the public was shocked to learn that our biggest investment banks were levered 30-to-1. When asset values fell, those banks were quickly wiped out. But now the Fed is holding many of the same types of assets and is levered 51-to-1! If the value of their portfolio were to fall by just 2%, the Fed itself would be wiped out.”

It’s Probably Nothing

Maxed Out Mama;

Well, now. After staring at this thing in dismay and sorrow I started thinking about Swedish movies. You know, the kind of thing where the people are just sitting around staring. Every once in a while they utter a word, and just when you are about to die of boredom they get up and look at a clock or break a mirror or something like that. It is supposed to be deeply symbolic. I don’t know what happens next because I never last that long.

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