The fed has a major problem. It must let rates rise to meet some termination point, which means above the rate of inflation. But in so doing, it creates the conditions that lead to a genuine decline in the supply of money itself, which creates serious upheaval of an unpredictable sort. There is no winner in this game.
Keep in mind that this is happening even as price inflation is still intolerably high, with the Fed’s favorite measure (the Personal Consumption Expenditures index) hitting records for the year. That was not supposed to happen. This is called stagflation.
It strikes me as impossible that we can avoid a serious recession with such monetary shocks going on. To be sure, we’ve never seen anything like this in the postwar period—either the pumping in or the sucking out of money—so this could be wrong. We’ll see. But generally, starving the economy of that on which it has come to rely will topple lots of illusions.
Related: “Commercial real estate is melting down fast. Home values next,” the Tesla and SpaceX chief tweeted on Monday.

