Margin Of Fraud

A Quantitative Analysis of Decisive Vote Updates in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Georgia on and after Election Night;

In the early hours of November 4th, 2020, Democratic candidate Joe Biden received several major “vote spikes” that substantially — and decisively — improved his electoral position in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Georgia. Much skepticism and uncertainty surrounds these “vote spikes.” Critics point to suspicious vote counting practices, extreme differences between the two major candidates’ vote counts, and the timing of the vote updates, among other factors, to cast doubt on the legitimacy of some of these spikes. While data analysis cannot on its own demonstrate fraud or systemic issues, it can point us to statistically anomalous cases that invite further scrutiny.
 
This is one such case: Our analysis finds that a few key vote updates in competitive states were unusually large in size and had an unusually high Biden-to-Trump ratio. We demonstrate the results differ enough from expected results to be cause for concern.
 
[…]
 
In particular, we are able to quantify the extent of compliance with this property and discover that, of the 8,954 vote updates used in the analysis, these four decisive updates were the 1st, 2nd, 4th, and 7th most anomalous updates in the entire data set. Not only does each of these vote updates not follow the generally observed pattern, but the anomalous behavior of these updates is particularly extreme. That is, these vote updates are outliers of the outliers.
 
The four vote updates in question are:
 
An update in Michigan listed as of 6:31AM Eastern Time on November 4th, 2020, which shows 141,258 votes for Joe Biden and 5,968 votes for Donald Trump
 
An update in Wisconsin listed as 3:42AM Central Time on November 4th, 2020, which shows 143,379 votes for Joe Biden and 25,163 votes for Donald Trump
 
A vote update in Georgia listed at 1:34AM Eastern Time on November 4th, 2020, which shows 136,155 votes for Joe Biden and 29,115 votes for Donald Trump
 
An update in Michigan listed as of 3:50AM Eastern Time on November 4th, 2020, which shows 54,497 votes for Joe Biden and 4,718 votes for Donald Trump

h/t Petey

They Went From “Flatten The Curve” To “Put Your Hands Behind Your Back” So Fast We Didn’t Even Notice

Related.

Chinada

Fellow travelers;

Two Canadian MPs are taking part in a campaign to release Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou that cites “deteriorating relations with China and the rise of Sinophobia in Canada”.
 
The New Democratic Party’s Niki Ashton and the Green Party’s Paul Manly are both listed as speakers at the “Zoom to Free Meng Wanzhou” online panel discussion on Tuesday evening.
 
Manly’s participation is in line with the policy of the Greens, who have three MPs and in July called on Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s federal government to ask the US to drop its charges against Meng and its request to have her extradited.

Related: Irresponsible ‘tough talk’ with China is useless, says Canada foreign minister

Related: The Chief Justice of the Superior Court of Quebec, Jacques R. Fournier, tells Le Journal de Québec he was unaware of the ethical rules governing travel of judicial officials abroad when he accepted an all-expenses-paid trip to China last year:

Related: According to a disclosure filed with the US Justice Department, Canada’s Globe and Mail newspaper received $132,046 for a number of advertising campaigns that featured flattering coverage of China.

Round Two

66% GOP wants Trump to run in 2024, 79% say election ‘stolen’.

The belief among President Trump’s supporters that the election victory was “stolen” through fraud has surged anew, driving 66% to urge the Republican to run in 2024 if Joe Biden is certified the winner.
 
A new survey for the communications and messaging firm Seven Letter found that 79% of Trump supporters believe that Democrats stole the election from Trump, even more than a similar Rasmussen Reports survey last week that put the number at 75%.
 
And as a result, 66% of supporters want the president to run again in 2024, which he has privately vowed to do. In the survey, he outdistanced Vice President Mike Pence and his son Donald Trump Jr.

And there’s plenty to motivate them. Biden’s welcome back of Obama era swamp creatures combined with the Republicans new foothold on redistricting lays the groundwork for major gains in 2022.

And it is not too early to herald what might best be described, if not as a wave, as the Trump Undertow of 2020.
 
Because, like an unseen riptide, this year’s results just handed the GOP an advantage many never thought possible. And it carried far away from shore Democratic hopes and dreams.
 
“Wait,” you say, “Trump lost the presidency.”
 
Yes, he did. But Trump, even as he lost, engineered a huge win for the GOP this month, and one that will echo through American politics as our once-a-decade reapportionment fights begin.
 
“On the eve of reapportionment, Republicans are now in a better position than they were after 2010,” Noah Rothman noted in Commentary. “Following those elections, Republicans controlled 54 of 99 state legislative chambers.” (Nebraska’s legislature is unicameral.)
 
That number is now 61.
 
If anything, Rothman understates the impact of the GOP domination of state legislatures. After the 2010 election, congressional redistricting lived in the shadow of a Supreme Court suspicious of gerrymandering. In one 2015 case, the court upheld the redistricting maps of Arizona’s absurdly partisan “citizens’ commission” by a 5-to-4 margin. Today, two of the five justices in the majority on that case have left the court. State legislatures now may do their redistricting work free of fear of new “tests” invented by the court to strike at their maps. Indeed, commissions of the sort that design districts in California, Ohio and Virginia may not be long for the books — a never-very-popular, post-Watergate-era reform whose era is now long over.
 
The new Supreme Court may be revisiting its 2015 decision very soon.
 
In nearly two dozen states, the congressional district mapping is safely in the hands of the GOP. That’s because Trump generated huge turnout in red states as well as blue, and Republicans did well down a lot of ballots.
 
It is ironic that Trump’s narrow losses in Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin kept him from a second consecutive term. It wasn’t a conspiracy that cost Trump the White House but a terrible combination of bad timing — the vaccines he promised were announced a fortnight too late for them to impact voting — and bad polling. Polling directs resources, locates rallies, energizes or depresses turnout. If polling tells you Wisconsin is lost, Pennsylvania is competitive and other states are safe, when none of that is accurate, the consequences are disastrous.
 
The party Trump leads is reluctant to tilt at legal windmills, but it is eager for answers about why no one expected so many states to finish closely or projected House Republicans to pick up seats. The headline that read “Biden leads Trump by 17 points in Wisconsin” is what I’ll never forget, nor should the pollsters, the media or the experts.
 
Elected Republican leaders will rightly balk at asking state legislatures to overturn popular votes — as radical a “constitutional” innovation as packing the Supreme Court, and just as repugnant to rule-of-law conservatives. But the GOP nomination in 2024 will be very much Trump’s for the taking should his health and energy remain as they are now.
 
Whether he runs again, Trump has reset the stage for the decennial remaking of the maps on which lawmaking at every level of government depends. It’s a proper capstone for a first term — or a last.

More: “He is not going anywhere.”

Your Sniveling And Cowering Superiors

Via Instapundit;

The Times let itself become hopelessly slanted. Captive to organized feedback on social media. Beholden to irredeemably conflicted staff members. Consumed by internal demons.
 
Make no mistake: other media outlets are taking note. In this way, they are motivated to self-censor news and information, lest they draw the wrath of the mobs. One editorial figure at a major international publication who did not want to be identified recounted numerous pieces he has recently killed for fear of the organized backlash.
 
“They can bankrupt me,” he tells me. “Facebook, Twitter, Google — they can ruin you in a matter of hours. For somebody like us, they can destroy you. So what do we do? We pull our punches. To raise certain issues is to cut your own throat.” He continues, “The newsman in me says, ‘Tell the truth,’ and that sounds great. But if I do that and destroy [my publication] in the process, what kind of pyrrhic victory is that?”

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