Grab a coffee.

As I write in late October and the first days of November, Israel is yet again in a war for survival, which should not be surprising given that the objective of its enemies is its extermination. This early on, the war is paradoxically in a state of flux. That is, although the battle space in Gaza is subject to intense preparation as Israel degrades Hamas defenses and logistics, a full ground campaign has yet to begin, although as you read it may have begun and ended. At present, lines have been established to cut Gaza in two, the plan being, apparently, to work slowly and methodically, as if Israel has all the time in the world, which because of international pressure, it does not. Optimally, however, a full campaign should not begin “now,” and this is why.

In May of this year, the president of Iran met with senior members of Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and said, “We consider the collapse of the Zionist regime [and, as he stated later, “the end of Israel”] to be very close.” Though Israel’s enemies routinely call for its destruction, a confident prediction of the timeline is unusual and cannot have failed to impress experienced observers—in fact, to have stopped them short. But as his remarks fit nicely with the progress and purpose of Iran’s increasingly rapid nuclear strides, it is doubtful that all but a few analysts associated them with a more complex and hidden strategy.

To wit, that strategy, much simplified: Hamas prepares for and executes the ISIS-style attack of October 7. The sheer, Holocaust-reminiscent barbarity galvanizes Israel, which, spurred by emotion and necessity, decides upon the destruction of Hamas at whatever cost. If Israel bogs down in fighting through the dense urban rubble of Gaza—or even if it doesn’t, but has dangerously concentrated its resources on the southern front—Iran instructs Hezbollah to fire its more than 100,000 missiles at Israel’s cities, its closely concentrated critical infrastructure, and its military targets (Hamas has done this routinely, but its missiles are much less capable), and to let loose its formidable armed forces upon Israel’s north. Simultaneously, Iran launches hundreds of ballistic missiles at the same exposed and essential concentrations. A combination of Hezbollah, Syrian, and Iranian forces resident on the Golan front mounts an attack from the northeast. A carefully prepared rising on the West Bank occurs in conjunction with parallel operations (such as in the July 2021 trial run) by Israeli Arabs within Israel itself. If Israel appears to be tottering, the Arab street may force now coldly friendly, apparently neutral, or merely gun-shy Arab states to join in the frenzy, much as they did in 1948, 1967, and 1973.