Back in January, I attended a talk by Peter Zeihan in which he openly mocked the Russian army for losing so much hardware during the initial invasion of the Ukraine that they were forced to ferry men and material to the front in civilian vans. I have no idea where his information came from, but the reality is that collapse of the Russian war effort is about as imminent as an earthquake in Manitoba.

When the conflict began, I sensed that a WWI stalemate would be the likely outcome. Now it’s just a matter of waiting for mass desertions or mutiny among the Ukrainian forces to completely upend the West’s strategy.

Ukraine’s military chief, Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, says in a long essay and interview with the Economist that “just like in the First World War we have reached the level of technology that puts us into a stalemate.”

He acknowledges: “There will most likely be no deep and beautiful breakthrough,” but instead an equilibrium of devastating losses and destruction.

Update (by Kate):

U.S. and European officials have begun quietly talking to the Ukrainian government about what possible peace negotiations with Russia might entail to end the war, according to one current senior U.S. official and one former senior U.S. official familiar with the discussions.

The conversations have included very broad outlines of what Ukraine might need to give up to reach a deal, the officials said. Some of the talks, which officials described as delicate, took place last month during a meeting of representatives from more than 50 nations supporting Ukraine, including NATO members, known as the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, the officials said.