Jim Warren: Trump’s Venezuela oil ‘deal’ might not be all that and a bag of chips.
Trump’s Venezuela deal underlines the urgency of building new export pipelines to reach non-US customers: But that doesn’t mean the universe will unfold like Trump thinks it will.
Trump announces major Venezuela oil deal, and what it means for Canada
The timing of this, in the midst of a major trade dispute between Canada and the US, as well as the impending Alberta independence referendum, if likely no coincidence. Trump may have just played his trump card, as it were. If our biggest customer of our most valuable product no longer needs or wants it, what are we to do?
Moe: “We cannot in any way support the adding of export tariffs on a product like oil”
“Again, this is only a function of a flawed policy discussion that we have had in this nation over the course of the last decade or better, where we see those very, in all too often, those very same individuals that are promoting export tariffs on a product like oil, 10 years ago, were the very same individuals standing up and saying we should not build important energy security infrastructure like the Energy East Pipeline.” – Scott Moe
Think about this: The top three contributors to Saskatchewan’s GDP is oil, potash and ag, with oil and potash vying for top spot (usually it’s oil, but potash might beat it this year). If we put an export tax on any of those, we’re shooting ourself through the foot, floor, and neighbour’s ceiling in the apartment below us.
Jim Warren: Uncertainty abounds in our tumultuous times: It’s starting to negatively affect the quality of oil market analysis
NDP claim coal refurbishments will cost even more, while SaskPower minister tours Boundary Dam and Estevan mine
On a day when the Minister Responsible for SaskPower was touring the work done on the coal-fired Boundary Dam Power Station Unit 4 and the nearby Estevan coal mine, the Saskatchewan NDP was quoting another number, their highest yet, as an estimated cost of the coal refurbishments. But what are those numbers based on?
Pipeline Online digs into that analysis, and finds the scenarios each to have significant flaws.
Also:
Jim Warren: Why the biggest oil supply crisis in history hasn’t produced the highest crude prices in recent history
Digging deep: Smith and Ford announce Northern Shield Energy Corridor pipeline
Call it Energy East 2.0, but kinda sorta, not really. There’s no Moosomin on-ramp like Energy East. It doesn’t make it past the Quebec border, yet. But it could possibly have offshoots to Churchill and maybe James Bay. This is the Saskatchewan perspective story on this pipeline
Also:
Finding a side hustle on TikTok, young Estevan man brings old headlights back to life and saved me $493.80
TMX 2? Trans Mountain 3? West Coast Pipeline to parallel existing Trans Mountain route, foregoing northern ports. In a case where going with the devil you know, the newly proposed West Coast Pipeline is expected to follow most of the Trans Mountain Pipeline right of way – you know, the one that saw TMX go from $7.5 billion to around $34 billion.
Yes, I did stay up until 5 a.m. writing this.
Mark Carney’s video: Forward Guidance: Canada’s Energy Future
If you listen to the end, you’ll hear Carney essentially say Trudeau’s policies don’t work today.
Former government net-zero adviser ‘disappointed’ by Carney’s commitment to climate
Pipeline Online Podcast, Ep. 37: Andrew Scheer, federal energy update
Another European utility looks to lock down supply from Ksi Lisims LNG
International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers respond to NDP coal position: “A deliberate misrepresentation of costs”
It turns out if the NDP wants your job to disappear, they don’t get your support. Imagine that? As in, if they want your house to lose half or more of its value, you to lose your job, and would rather spend money on gas from Alberta or wind and solar, what would you think?
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Wait, isn’t this how it was done before?
Feds want pipeline projects reviewed by energy regulator instead of impact agency
Also
Pipeline company Enbridge unfazed by rival oil shipping projects
Brian Zinchuk: LNG, the NDP’s electrical plan and Spaceballs
End of series on NDP’s electrical plan:
Digging deep on the NDP’s “Grid & Growth” plan for Saskatchewan’ electrical grid, Part 3: Wind, Solar, Storage, Transmission & Interties
Digging deep on the NDP’s “Grid & Growth” plan for Saskatchewan’ electrical grid, Part 4: Governance, Labour, Carbon Taxes & Rates
SaskPower minister responds to NDP Grid and Growth Plan
Also:
SaskPower and Bruce Power sign memorandum of understanding to inform Saskatchewan large reactor technology assessment
Frontier Centre for Public Policy: Lee Harding: Canada is losing billions by holding back its oil and gas industry
Op-Ed: Del Mondor: Well…that was an interesting 39 days of people finding out about the Strait of Hormuz
Please name the last wind farm to do this:
Cenovus Energy Invests $2 Million in Lakeland College
Stampede Drilling is going to wildcat in Greenland – and that’s no joke
Stampede Drilling, originally founded in Estevan, is sending a drilling rig to Greenland, yes, Greenland, to drill for oil. This is about as wildcat as you can possibly get, in one of the most inaccessible and hostile places on the planet.
This is NOT an April Fool’s joke, either.
(For those unfamiliar with the term, wildcatting means drilling for oil or gas in an area not previously developed. It’s a highly risky venture.) https://glossary.slb.com/terms/w/wildcat
On coal refurbishments: NDP focus on cost, Sask Party focus on reliability
The Iran War is causing an energy crisis: Doomberg on Decouple and Soar Financially
Weekend Watch: The Iran War Expert: I Simulated The Iran War for 20 Years. Here’s What Happens Next.
While watching this, consider if the Iran War does become a forever war, what will it’s impact be on oil production, delivery through the Strait of Hormuz or lack thereof, the world economy, Canadian and Saskatchewan oil production could be profound and last years? Could this lead to a global recession, but good times for our oilpatch? Remember the $147 WTI barrel of July, 2008, led to the global financial crisis that September. Some of us are still bearing the scars of that.
I know I am.
Saskatchewan is the battleground between the AtkinsRealis (SNC-Lavalin/former AECL) CANDU reactor and the Cameco/Brookfield-owned Westinghouse AP1000 reactor. I’d digging as deep as I can to provide context for Saskatchewan decision makers who will be making this decision. In recent weeks I had two podcasts on the CANDU. This is the first on the Westinghouse. What’s really significant here is the Westinghouse ownership is now fully Canadian companies, even though the design is American. And in November or so, Trump’s administration said they’d build 10 of them.
Pipeline Online Podcast Ep. 31: Dr. Grant Isaac, Pres. & COO of Cameco on SK buying Westinghouse reactors. There were technical difficulties which shortened our time, so we’re going to take another run at it in the near future.
Also:
This is a really good discussion on LNG:
Decouple Media: The Terrible, No Good week for LNG
Black mark on industry (I hate it when this happens):
Alberta landowners take stand over years of missed payments by delinquent oil company
It turns out Pipeline Online isn’t the only one to use a Timbit as a unit of monetary measure. Maybe they got the idea from Pipeline Online? Here’s the Canadian Press story:
What will the carbon price cost the oilsands? A Timbit per barrel, one analysis says
Should Saskatchewan buy the CANDU reactor when it comes to building large-scale nuclear in this province? Carl Marcotte Senior Vice-President, Marketing & Business Development at CANDU Energy, part of AtkinsRealis, makes the pitch. Building large reactors will only be the largest, most expensive decision made by this province for generations.
Pipeline Online Podcast Ep. 29: Carl Marcotte, CANDU Energy
I’m hoping to get Westinghouse on in a future episode, as the main competitor.
Related: Cameco CEO on whirlwind Washington trip for talks on reactor deal
Also – Jim Warren: Critical questions about the Alberta-Ottawa pipeline MOU remain unanswered
Enbridge unfazed by prospect of more Venezuelan oil headed to Gulf Coast
TC Energy sets growth sights on U.S. data centre boom
Bronwyn Eyre: Why the fed-prov ‘MOU’ is ‘Mission Outstandingly Unlikely’
Things have been looking really bleak for southwest Saskatchewan’s oilpatch. If this were a medical drama, this would be where the doctor puts the paddles on the dying patient’s chest, yells, “Clear!” and shocks the patient.
We might have just seen a little blip on the heart monitor with this land sale.
Whew! Southwest Saskatchewan sees more interest in this land sale than in all of 2025 combined
And yes, it is that bad. Most oilfield services in that region have either shut down or are barely hanging on. I spent an hour yesterday talking to the owner of several businesses in that area.