Could Iran be the next “Forever War?”

Drill, Baby, Drill 55 Comments

Weekend Watch: The Iran War Expert: I Simulated The Iran War for 20 Years. Here’s What Happens Next.

While watching this, consider if the Iran War does become a forever war, what will it’s impact be on oil production, delivery through the Strait of Hormuz or lack thereof, the world economy, Canadian and Saskatchewan oil production could be profound and last years? Could this lead to a global recession, but good times for our oilpatch? Remember the $147 WTI barrel of July, 2008, led to the global financial crisis that September. Some of us are still bearing the scars of that.

I know I am.

55 Replies to “Could Iran be the next “Forever War?””

  1. You Get a House, and You Get a House, and You Get a House.
    The global financial crisis was precipitated by home lending practices aggressively promoted in the US by Bill Clinton and Barney Franks; and by changes in US banking laws which facilitated the emergence of sub-prime lending, ie. awarding mortgages to individuals lacking appropriate income and credit histories that justified the loans.
    There were a host of other, contributing factors like the securitization of tranches of mortgage loans, but all of these were side effects of socialist policies on housing that were promoted by liberal Democrats.
    The price of oil is not mentioned in the article at the following link.
    https://www.britannica.com/money/financial-crisis-of-2007-2008

    1. Exactly right. Government intervention in free market economies has always been to blame for economic turmoil for at least a century plus now.

  2. IF that’s a scenario, one which the Panicans embrace, it won’t matter for the Canadian oil patch.
    Marx Carnage is keeping oil locked in the ground regardless.
    Read his book, “Values”.
    When somebody says who they are, BELIEVE THEM!
    Carnage is not your friend.
    And the MOU deal with Danielle? LOL. It’s a poison bill document. Carnage has washed his hands of the affair. He expects others to do the heavy lifting, despite the fact that heavy lifting IS leadership.
    Quid Pro Quo.
    Carnage is an insincere despot.

  3. I’ve always thought that the predictions for $200 a barrel oil are greatly exaggerated. The world economy will tip into serious recession when oil gets to $150 and demand destruction does its work. I don’t foresee regime change or unconditional surrender being a likely outcome of the Iran war either. We’re more likely to see ongoing civil war or some sort of negotiated settlement that allows the mullahs to remain in power. Either way, a more appropriate name for Operation Epic Fury would be Operation Epic Failure. There’s a reason why past American Presidents did not go after Iran in any major way: they did not want to risk the closure of the straits of Hormuz. At this juncture, Trump is merely channeling Lyndon Johnson. Good luck with that.

    1. “They did not want to risk the closure of the straits of Hormuz”. In other words give the keys to the planet to Iran. Iran is isolated and will be neutered. Only 2% of Iran’s oil goes to the U.S. whereas 40% goes to China. Simple matter to interdict all oil tankers from Iran heading through the straits of Hormuz to China. In other words shut down Iran completely. The Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline and the UAE’s Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline take the sting out of those countries.

      As for LBJ, he didn’t really want to win the Vietnam war. The U.S. had the Viet Cong on the ropes after the Tet Offensive which was a failure. The U.S. capitulation wasn’t a military one, it was a political one.

      1. If not for politics, the Vietnam war would never have happened. Ho Chi Minh worked with the US special forces embedded in his country against Imperial Japan, and admired the capitalist system. Right up until the Frogs decided they wanted their colony back and the US supported the Frogs.

        1. yupper dupper. its said uncle ho fashioned their constitution along the lines of the one from 1779 (+/-) the frogs must have reallllly wanted those rubber plantations.

          1. Charlie the Gaul is responsible for as many deaths as Stalin and Hitler, through a combination of incompetence, and colonial / political stupidity.

    2. “There’s a reason why past American Presidents did not go after Iran in any major way: they did not want to risk the closure of the straits of Hormuz. ”

      Yes, because they were cowards. The kind of cowards who made ‘deals’ with Iran whereby Iran would pretend not to be working on developing nuclear weapons and the US would pretend to inspect for them. You knew that, right? You knew that the ‘deal’ made with Iran was that Iran would only allow compliance inspectors to look *where Iran allowed them to look*, right? And not where they were actually doing the work?

      Seek help, Dennis. Stop allowing your TDS to embarrass you.

  4. The “forever” war has been going for 2 weeks. Try to keep your shirt on and a little bit of your sanity intact.

    1. STRAWMAN
      That was my thinking as soon as I saw it was a brain upchuck post, I usually never read his/her drivel.

        1. I’m not sure it’s entirely bullshit. I think there’s something to that part about how he usually never reads.

  5. “Forever War” desperation more likely. Desperate to claim everything Trump and America is doing is wrong. I expect nothing less from the Univ. of Chicago scholar *cough* *gag*

    Here, he tells you how EVERYTHING America does is wrong …
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Pape

    Yeah, right down Brian’s alley.

    Pssst … how are things going up there in America’s hat, Brian? How’s your anti-Trump economy coming along?

    1. No kidding Kenji.
      This country, under 11 years of Liberal malfeasance, aided and abetted by provincial socialist governments, have been busy regulating the resource industries into extinction.
      Just name one, and the same action and result is clear.
      Mining.
      O&G.
      Forestry.
      Fishing.
      Canada had it all and the offshoots were clearly observable and positive.
      High employment.
      A diverse tax base from the corporations, employees and contractors, employed directly and indirectly by these industries. I grew up with these, and have been watching these waste away over decades.
      End result today is no more tax base from any of these, nor employment.
      And what little left still produced by this country, is being minimized weekly/weakly.
      A country that produces little to nothing, yet over a quarter of jobs are taxpayer subsidized, working for government.
      This isn’t going to end well.
      Massive deficits forever, until the IMF goes all Greece on Canada. That will be a momentous moment. The socialist governments will have to cut spending and have massive cuts to government jobs.
      So yes, bring on the collapse, as Asshole Consulting used to advert on SDA, would say.

  6. I disagree that $147/barrel oil was the reason for the 2007 – 2008 financial crisis.
    It was the required lending practices brought in during the President Carter years which extended lending to those who had no business case for house ownership, and which spineless Republicans refused to change as it’s a race tilted problem. For awhile 65% of Cleveland Ohio’s houses were “under water” for overvalued mortgages and this tilt was worst in the black neighborhoods. There is video of President George Bush warning Congress to change this for at least 5 of his 8 years as President.

    If there’s a worldwide recession in this next medium term, I think the reason for that is much more leaning to governments being unable to say “no” to their electorate which is demanding ever increasing gov’t expenditures and, especially in tier 2 Canada, the leading debt holder amongst the group of 7 countries. It seems Canada’s gov’t only weapon to combat poor results is to increase taxation or regulation.

    There are daily reports of Iran’s airforce, and navy, being without equipment to fuel their reason for being, that is airplanes and boats. It’s very difficult to have a gun in Iran outside of the military or police, and difficult for those citizens to stage an effective gov’t turnover by any means. I do not see any indication of the Iran attack turning into a “forever war”. The current leaders of the US and in particular the Secretary of War are much different men than those who served while Biden, or Obama were in office.

    The attack on Iran has been ongoing for 15 days, and this is nowhere near to being forever, outside of high school girls relationships in grade 9-10

    Robert Pape, the man in the photo posted above routinely advises both sides of the aisle, though when paid for his opinions he has worked for Obama, which dovetails well with criticism of the current Administration’s chance to win a minor war in less time than Afghanistan or Iraq. Pape mentions the new leader of Iran being “way more aggressive” on the nuclear front. Iran’s new leader Khamenei appears to be missing at least one of his legs in the first days of his leadership and his nowhere near to being their visible leader.
    Perhaps he can hop over to where Iran’s nukes were being constructed and help them out?

    Leading the post with “Could” Iran be the next forever war? is similar to what climate hysteria has led with for 4 decades. “Could” this be the last snowfall? “Could the world’s crops all fail? “Could” Al Gore be the greatest Nobel Prize winner ever?
    Robert Pape knows well that his contrarian views get clicks, otherwise people would just tune into TruthSocial to see the updates, and that doesn’t keep dinner on the plate for him.

    1. “ It seems Canada’s gov’t only weapon to combat poor results is to increase taxation or regulation.”

      Indeed, and that would shatter the love affair that Liberal Boomers have with Marx Carnage. The long rumoured taxes on:
      -Cap Gains increase to 67%
      -Cap Gains on theoretical home values
      -GST increase
      -Means testing lowering OAS thresholds

      There are others, but these will finish off the hypnosis used to portray Carnage as the economic Jesus he’s been portrayed as.
      He”s an empty suit, loading up Brookfield’s assets and income off of our backs.

      1. Savaging the assets of citizens is always the result of Socialist/Communist governance. Right now we’re seeing it explode in California, Washington, and New York; and the governor of Colorado is bumping up against state law in an attempt not to return excess tax receipts to the citizens. The unique circumstance in the US, though, is that citizens can escape the liberal communist enclaves and move to states where freedom still exists.
        Stay tuned…

    2. “Could Sunday, Mar. 15, 2026 be the hottest Mar. 15 on record!?” … has screamed all the Bay Area weather girls for the last week. It’s positively BEAUTIFUL outside right now … 74 deg.F with a gentle breeze. I’m working hard outside and not even breaking a sweat.

      It could have been sweltering … or it could have been pleasant. But pleasant doesn’t inspire FEAR … so the obnoxiously erroneous “Hottest EVER on record!” was the forecast.

      Our “experts” are usually obnoxiously erroneous with their predictions of doom and gloom from any behavior … even the weather … they don’t like. Anything that doesn’t feed their narrative.

    3. If there were ever a time for the CIA to go all Hillary/Benghazi and smuggle weapons, now is the time.

  7. The war between civilization and Islam has been going on for 1400 years. That is the forever war. This is just the latest chapter. I suspect it won’t last too long, but there will be another chapter soon enough.

    2. “The war between civilization and Islam has been going on for 1400 years. That is the forever war. ”

      This!

      1. Pape might be an alarmist, but the prospect of islamist sleeper cells should be a major concern for the USG..that “religion of peace” insanity has not quite died yet in the US and unfortunately is alive and well north of the 49th. stay out of crowded venues

  8. By the time the Iran War is over Cuba is likely to surrender to democracy. The end of that conflict is so bizarrely simple they should have done it a couple generations ago. Hold free elections and pay American companies for the seizures of 67 years ago.

    A two week forever war? Israel is hitting street level targets in Tehran and I suspect the Iranian Army might decide to get rid of the Revolutionary Guard at some point. I wouldn’t write off the war in two weeks.

    1. What I’m reading on Twitter is that all that is left is the revolutionary guard. Most rank and file Iranian members of the normal military have already abandoned their posts if they weren’t killed.

  9. That was a good analysis. The conclusion is not unexpected – a prediction of civil war.

  10. Forever War?
    Two days in politics is a lifetime,especially if you are afflicted with TDS.
    Me thinks Rusty Shackleford nails it.

  11. Even if this war persists for more than a few months, Trump’s recent military excursions have proven that U.S. military technology is far superior to any Chinese garbage and so will keep the Chicoms from trying anything stupid like invading Taiwan. Plus, I like the idea of Iran finally getting their ass pounded after almost a half century of their Islamic mayhem.

    1. I think everyone knows that the US can kick serious butt when it comes to military tech. The problem is that their adversaries are throwing cheap crap up in the air which the US needs to use expensive tech to knock out. The mullah’s plan seems to be to make the Americans suffer by spending lots of money. While the US is rich, they don’t infinitely deep pockets.

  12. Professor Robert Pape has his own answer to the Iran problem. Kick the can down the road for 20 years and hope that something good happens. And buy his book.

  13. Pape sounds like a neo-con forever war kinda guy. I don’t agree with much of what he has to say. If this war , narrative or kinetic, goes past September, DJT is finished, imo, so his admin is definitely planning for a short conflict, doesn’t mean that will happen, just looking at the probabilities. Remember all of the news casts , Fox, CNBC, CNN, pretend conservatives like Megan Kelly, Candice Owens, etc. are promoting a long and protracted conflict. I have no idea as to what’s really happening over there, but it definitely isn’t what we are being fed, and that includes the WH.

  14. Just another RELIGIOUS war, 90% of wars are just that, and the other 10% have a huge religious component.
    Will this war last long, probably not, as Trump is fighting a war, not pussy footing around for political sake.

  15. Based on what was said in the beginning, Trump miscalculated on how hard it would be to take out the Iranian regime. The conflict has simply come down to a matter of will power, and the US versus Iran is a matter of will at this point. All the mullahs have to do is wait for the US and Israel to conclude that the war is too costly to continue and they win. What is needed is a way to break the mullah’s will and they will lose, and lose quickly. I thought someone starting rumours that the US was secretly tainting everything with bacon grease would be interesting. Or that the Mahdi was found and the mullahs were hiding him to maintain power. Something that would start internal turmoil and weaken the grip of the mullahs.

    Trump is right that the mullahs need to be dealt with, but I don’t think he reckoned on how hard it would be. That said, we’re not even at the end of the beginning yet.

    2. Oh c’mon.
      Nobody thought this was going to be a 3 day waltz. Nobody.
      Iran’s weaponry and terrorist support is well known, especially by intelligence services.
      You think Israel hasn’t been aware of their enemy’s actions, plans and weapon systems? Please.
      Even Trump has been quoted to say, a six to eight week window. Seems about right. Next up, securing Hormuz with a pounding of B52 visits.
      The only thing Iran is winning, is the production of AI SLOP and PsyOp garbage on social media. The Iranian citizens will have to endure more sacrifices of their infrastructure, to defeat the mullahs and the irrational guard.

      1. Trump was originally saying this would be over in a few days. He also claimed to have eradicated the Iranian military on several occasions yet the war continues. There is obviously no plan in place for dealing with the mining of the strait which means nobody thought of it. There is no plan in place for dealing with multiple terrorist groups which is what the Iraian military has become now that the head has been cut off the snake. The people who planned this war did not do their job. I still think Trump is right, Iran needs to be dealt with, but there are obviously gaps in the planning.

    3. Trump is well aware of “how hard it would be”. If there has been any miscalculation by anybody, it was made by Iran thinking they were dealing with Obama or Biden (or horror of horrors, Kamala Harris).

      1. Trump is now saying it’s going to be a 4 – 5 week war, which I still think is optimistic. I think the US and Israeli militaries should be getting awards for how few civilian casualties there are. The care they take to avoid injuring non-combatants impresses me more than anything else. Now if they could get the strait opened Iran would lose pretty much all of its leverage.

        1. Vis a vis the Straits of Hormuz: Whenever offensive military infrastructure is deployed by Iran it is promptly destroyed, so optimism is justified.

  16. The role of Zguv is Tax unt Spend.
    Install of Carney is worst by elbows-up crowd. Who luvs a banker?
    Gimme a paperboy anyday.

  17. Geez, the “forever war”. Nobody asked that question when we went over Yougoslavia or Libya. It’s been all of two weeks and the talking heads are all bringing out the forever war Bogeyman. I lost count of how many wars we had between Gulf War one and now. The US is running a textbook air campaign. Well, not really textbook: they are writing a few additions to the textbook with the use of new weapon systems and tactics. Give it some time. They will get everything. They can put a lid on that place and let it rot. Once there is nothing left it’s easy to monitor. You call mission accomplished, keep an eye on them and destroy anything bigger than a Honda. You make it safe so the navies of the slackers sucking the middle eastern oil tit can patrol the Gulf. If not, well their loss. If the Iranians want a regime change they better grab the chance. The administration will deal with whomever they find reasonable.

    1. “They can put a lid on that place and let it rot.”

      The U.S./Israel coalition doesn’t need Iran’s oil/gas. China does.
      Let China keep the Strait of Hormuz open. Let China fight the “Forever War”.

  18. You present a novel explanation of 2008, Brian. So please explain how the price of a commodity led to the collapse in availability of cash to banks and investment firms to meet their obligations. Did the collapse in value of mortgage-based assets have any effect?

  19. The forever war trope is being trotted out because certain political factions within the U.S. hope to use it for the midterms (and the primaries). It also serves certain foreign interests. My goodness, they certainly are nervous.
    This plan was created back during the Bush administration; the people who created it were of course not listened to. The reasons were multiple and not all of them good, honest reasons.
    Will it work? Remains to be seen, as no plan truly survives first contact in its pristine form. However, thus far it is going well, ahead of schedule even. There have also been other benefits to it that aren’t readily apparent at this time.

  21. Forever wars are what you make of them. If you need one to bash Trump with, well, you can find one. Diana Ross once said her forever came today, and yours can too. But consider: if one side fights a forever war, and the other fights a forever-and-a-day war, who wins in the end?

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