Softbank CEO Masayoshi Son famously said “Those who rule data will rule the entire world.” He was talking about computer chips but might as well have been referring to integrated assessment models (IAMs) used in climate science and policy.1
A new paper — van de Ven et al. 2024 or vdV24 — analyzes thousands of climate scenarios produced by IAM modeling groups over the past three decades as the basis for three recent IPCC reports (AR5 2013/2014, SR1.5 2018, AR6 2021/2022). Today I summarize the significance of the data collected by vdV24 for understanding important biases in climate research.
Specifically, the new paper provides insight into how Europe — with less than 10% of global population and about 15% of global GDP — has come to quietly dominate climate science and policy. It turns out that IAMs are an incredibly important base of soft power. Let’s have a look.
Y2Kyoto: Going Green Coal
Will Wade, for Bloomberg;
Something strange is happening with utilities.
For decades, electricity usage in the US has been mostly flat. Even with more people starting to use more power for more things, much of that has been offset as buildings, factories and appliances become more efficient.
But suddenly that’s changing, and the industry isn’t ready. Big tech companies need lots of electricity, for data centers and especially for artificial intelligence. Homes are using more electricity for heating and cooling. Factories need more electricity to shift away from fossil fuels.
And when faced with this sudden increase of load on the power grid, utilities are going to rely heavily on natural gas, and even coal.
“It will be a struggle to meet load growth,” said Rob Gramlich, president of Grid Strategies, a Washington-based research company that’s been tracking this trend. He expects US demand to for electricity to climb almost 16% over the next five years, more than triple his estimate from a year ago. Utilities are expecting customers to need as much as 128 gigawatts of new capacity in 2029.
That’s really going to disrupt the green transition. Power providers that have made pledges to cut back or eliminate carbon emissions are now starting to reverse course. Duke Energy Corp. plans to extend the life of its largest coal-fired power plant, which would push aside its goal to exit coal by 2035. Duke has said that its resource plans are not final decisions and are revised regularly.
FirstEnergy also will operate a pair of coal plants, stepping back from an earlier pledge to stop using the fuel by 2030. And energy companies in the US are planning new gas plants at the fastest pace in years.
And all of that is before Donald Trump returns to the White House next month. The president-elect is well-known for his support of fossil fuels and his skepticism of climate policies.
Only Suckers Pay Their Way
On fare-dodging progressives, who freeload altruistically:
“I don’t pay,” said a 35-year-old man wearing an orange puffy vest and clutching a beige shoulder bag and a banana. The man said he earns $75,000 working for an Oakland-based climate nonprofit. “Muni should be free, to make it accessible.”
Or, my activist lifestyle should be subsidised by others, the less important.
A 25-year-old research associate for a Google-owned subsidiary who also earns $75,000 a year said she almost never pays the fare. “I’d say 99% of the time, I just walk on,” she said, adding that she saw everyone else doing it when she moved to the city three years ago. “It’s like a San Francisco thing, I guess.”
Ah, that community spirit, a triumph of fairness over selfishness, in a city of good people. Good people who steal as a matter of routine. Because when it comes to paying their way, well, they’d rather not.
Y2Kyoto: Blunder Down Under
Via Doomberg;
If there is a place on Earth where wind and solar technologies should work, it is Australia. The country’s vast coastline and diverse geography bestow nearly ideal conditions for wind energy turbines, and the sun shines brightly and consistently. According to a detailed country-by-country analysis by the World Bank Group, Australia ranks near the top in global solar potential, and some of its largest commercial solar farms can achieve capacity factors in excess of 40%—roughly four times Germany’s average annual performance. By further comparison, similar facilities in the US average about 25%. […]
Alas, as sure as night follows day, wherever renewable sources of electricity penetrate a grid to any meaningful extent, skyrocketing prices and electricity shortages are sure to follow. No country — not even Australia — holds veto power over the laws of physics.
Sky News documentary (1hr): The shocking truth of the renewable energy push
We Don’t Need No Flaming Sparky Cars
We Don’t Need No Flaming Sparky Cars
Whirl with me back in time all the way to September 2023, when the federal and Quebec governments announced that they would be partnering with Swedish battery maker Northvolt to plunge headlong into the bright green future. Canada and Quebec would be laying out about $2.7 billion in capital, and more in downstream subsidies, to facilitate the construction of a vast, hypermodern battery plant in the province’s hinterland to help meet the world’s unlimited appetite for electric vehicles, creating thousands of jobs and contributing to global environmental health. “It’s a win-win-win — for workers, for communities, and for the environment,” trumpeted the prime minister. What could go wrong?
Brussels Signal: EU taxpayers set to lose more than €300 million over ‘green’ darling Northvolt’s bankruptcy
Porsche is backing off its most aggressive electrification plans. The legendary German automaker recently said it would continue developing internal combustion engines across its catalog to satisfy customer demand as EV sales take a hit.
Money For Nothing
You’d think a lame duck President would be a little less eager to plant landmines for an incoming administration, but it seems that nothing is off the table at this point.
On Tuesday, the US Department of Energy announced it would offer a direct loan of up to $6.57 billion (including $5.975 billion of principal and $592 million of capitalized interest) to finance Rivian’s EV factory in Stanton Springs North, near the City of Social Circle, Georgia.
As of Monday’s close, [Rivian] shares were down 50% year-to-date, with about 18% of the float short, equal to about 135 million shares.
We Don’t Need No Flaming Sparky Cars
While the company believed it could get out ahead of the competition, the reality was that it was digging its own grave. Bloomberg goes into great detail about how an out-of-touch executive class was utterly convinced that they were ushering in an entirely new way of renting an automobile. Management was positive Certares could solve Hertz software and cloud issues while likewise integrating the many travel agencies it owned into novel money making ventures. Leadership simultaneously touted a keyless future where customers could simply use their phone to locate, unlock, and then drive rental vehicles away. Hertz was even renting EVs to Uber drivers as part of a new partnership program.
There was a lot going on at the time.
But the above ignores the fundamental problems the company was already facing and didn’t make all-electric vehicles any easier for people on vacation to use. The fact of the matter is that not all trips or parts of the country actually work with EVs. Whether on business or pleasure, absolutely nobody wants to take time out of their itinerary to charge an electric car. However, they’re effectively forced to when they’re renting since they cannot charge at home.
It turned out that just getting the EVs into the right regions was a tall order for the company. Many places saw extremely low demand for Tesla and Polestar vehicles, with customers refusing to take them since they didn’t want to go out of their way to charge them. But the places where they became popular likewise became problematic, as customers would often return them low on battery power. Locations often did not have enough charging stations present to ensure the vehicles would be ready for the following day — enraging the limited number of renters who actually wanted an EV.
Tesla rentals were also involved in more accidents (per capita) because those new to all-electric vehicles weren’t familiar with how they operated. Peppy cars that the company originally thought saved them on long-term maintenance (e.g. oil changes) ended up costing more because the repairs were so much more costly and common.
We Don’t Need No Stinking Giant Fans
Why can’t I remember how to spell that stupid prick’s name when I need to?
Zero wind, zero solar and zero storage at 20:24 this evening. pic.twitter.com/T3z7I02I2r
— Reliable AB Energy (@ReliableAB) November 16, 2024
Y2Kyoto: Beginning Of The End
Trump’s remarks about energy during the campaign were unmistakable. When he quipped about wanting to be dictator for a day it was to close the border and “drill, drill, drill.” When asked how he would reduce the cost of living he said he would rapidly expand energy production with a target of cutting energy costs by at least 50 per cent. And on election night he said again: the United States has the oil, the liquid gold, and is going to use it.
Soon U.S. climate policy will no longer be a thing. The Biden administration delivered extravagant green energy subsidies under the Inflation Reduction Act. They were easy to bring in and will be just as easy for Trump to eliminate, especially the ones targeted at Democratic special interest groups. Trump 2.0 will not settle for merely stalling on new climate action; it’s more likely to try to dismantle the entire climate bureaucracy.
In 2016 Trump did not understand how Washington could thwart a president’s plans. But he learned many hard lessons merely trying to survive lawfare, resistance and open insubordination. It took three years for him to install people in senior positions in the climate area who could begin to push back against the vast regulatory machine. But at that late stage they had neither time nor capacity to get much done.
This term should be different. Trump’s team has spent years developing legal and regulatory strategies to bring full executive authority back to the Oval Office so it can execute plans quickly and efficiently. His top priority is hydrocarbon development and his team is in no mood for compromise. As for climate, Trump recently remarked “Who the hell cares?”
That’s the reality. Now our own policy-makers must decide what to ask of Canadians in terms of shouldering the costs of climate policies.
We Don’t Need No Stinking Giant Fans
Shares in wind energy firms plunged on Wednesday as a presidential victory for Donald Trump would mean that the US will likely prioritize fossil fuels over renewables.
Shares in two leading Danish firms led the rout, with developer Orsted A/S dropping as much as 14% and turbine maker Vestas Wind Systems A/S sliding 13% in Copenhagen before paring losses. Other firms, including Germany’s RWE AG and Nordex SE, also declined.
Trump has vowed to end the country’s offshore wind efforts as one of his first measures after taking office. During campaigning, he also promised to lift restrictions on domestic energy production.
A second Trump term would be a stark contrast to the presidency of Joe Biden, who set an aggressive target to decarbonize the country’s power grid and introduced sweeping climate legislation that favored renewable energy.
From Anas Alhajji’s Daily Energy Report;
If the Republicans end up controlling all three houses, the likelihood of repealing the Inflation Reduction Act, or parts of it, is very high. Repealing parts of it will cause a sea change in the energy markets, especially in two areas: electric vehicles and offshore wind. The impact is global and not only limited to the US. While the Trump Administration will emphasize US energy supremacy, it will also focus on lowering energy prices. It remains to be seen how companies and the oil producing countries will react to lower oil prices. If Trump delivers on his promise that he will end the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, oil prices will decline.
We Don’t Need No Flaming Fire Engines
An electric emergency vehicle belonging to a fire department in Germany caught fire and burnt down the new fire station.
The fire, which occurred on Oct. 16, according to Euro News, started from a vehicle that “contained lithium-ion batteries and an external power connection.” The blaze destroyed nearly a dozen emergency vehicles and caused between $21.5 million and $25.9 million in damage. No one was injured.
The stations, which opened a year ago, didn’t have a fire alarm system, Euro News reported because “experts considered it not necessary.”
“Mayor Jyoti Gondek” Is Not A Character In A Tim Burton Movie
But she should be.
The company Calgary ordered its electric buses from for a pilot project has gone tits up without delivering a single bus after years of waiting.
A comms flack from the mayor’s office has finally addressed the issue somewhat by saying the city dropped the contact with Vicinity “earlier this year” when it realized the buses are never coming. Earlier this year is a way to sugarcoat saying a few weeks ago. At the end of August even, the city website still just said it was waiting for Vicinity to deliver despite some “supply chain” issues.
On the bright side, the city says they never gave any money to Vicinity.
On the downside, the city spent a lot to build charging stations for buses that don’t exist. They haven’t disclosed how much has been lost there.
Further, the city is saying it is sourcing more electric buses for a pilot despite the first pilot being a total failure.
We Don’t Need No Shattered Giant Mirrors
We Don’t Need No Stinking Giant Fans
Because it’s a scam and voters are catching on.
The future of the clean energy transition is cloudy. It’s well-known that there are disagreements—wide disagreements—between Republicans and Democrats about our energy future. But less well-known is the bedrock of public opinion on America’s energy supply, the importance of a rapid transition away from fossil fuels, and the general salience of the climate change issue.
Findings from a new YouGov survey indicate that most voters’ views differ quite a bit from those of rapid energy transition advocates. These views constitute an ineluctable reality that any transition, on any timetable, will have to deal with. At the same time there is political opportunity here to better align policy priorities with voter preferences.
We Don’t Need No Flaming Sparky Cars
The auto industry is big business in Michigan, and a major round of layoffs is revving the election into high gear for industry workers in the critical swing state — who blame the Biden-Harris administration’s heavy-handed electric-vehicle mandates for the painful job losses.
Stellantis, which manufactures Chrysler, Jeep and Dodge vehicles, announced last month it will lay off 2,450 workers at its Warren plant. While industry jobs in the state have been declining since 1990, Michigan autoworkers explained to The Post why Team Biden’s green-energy rules are at fault this time.[…]
“Listen, you wanna buy an EV car? Great,” she continued. “But the autoworkers, the automakers know that we can’t survive because the infrastructure isn’t there on EVs. Nobody wants to buy them.”
Ford slashed more than 1,000 jobs at its Rouge Electric Vehicle Center in Dearborn after drastically scaling back its production of the F-150 Lightning, an all-electric pickup truck.
“It’s the way that the government now wants to go,” Gordon said of the transition to EVs. “And they completely made the wrong decisions on it because if you look, Ford has lost a lot of money.”
Ford reported a $132,000 loss in the year’s first quarter on each of the 10,000 electric vehicles it sold — which was 20% fewer EVs than sold in the same period last year.
Showdown At Volkswagen
Zerohedge;
As discussed earlier today, Germany’s economy is slowly but surely sinking, whether or not Mario Draghi’s proposal to flood Europe in new debt is eventually accepted, and nowhere is the pain more tangible than Germany’s iconic carmaker, Volkswagen, which we reported last week was considering its first-ever factory closure amid a dire economic backdrop, and which today took the shocking – for Germany – decision to end job protections for German auto workers as part of its cost-cutting push, setting up a calamitous showdown with unions as the country’s most important industry fights for its future.
This morning, the world’s largest automaker by sales canceled several agreements linked to a three-decades-old pact that was supposed to safeguard employment until 2029, V. […]
VW’s main target is its underperforming namesake passenger car brand, whose profit margins are getting squeezed amid a sputtering transition to EVs and a consumer spending slowdown. Carmakers in Europe are also struggling to compete with Tesla and new entrants from China led by BYDl, which have been selling cars at dumping prices, infuriating Brussels.
Cutbacks at VW are harder to push through than at other companies, especially since half the seats on the company’s supervisory board are held by labor representatives, and the German state of Lower Saxony — which owns a 20% stake — often sides with trade union bodies. The automaker, which employs almost 300,000 Germans, last week defended its plant closure plans, saying flagging car sales have left it with about two factories too many.
h/t MelindaPrevious.
“Mayor Jyoti Gondek” Is Not A Character In A Tim Burton Movie
Calgary is dumping over $500 million into electric buses.
There was supposed to be a pilot program starting in 2022 with a handful of community shuttles. The purchase was done, but they still haven’t been delivered.
Meanwhile, the city said to hell with the pilot and committed to blowing half a billion on this. They felt that they didn’t need a pilot program because it worked so well in Edmonton. This was shortly before Edmonton’s electric bus fleet fell apart.
This is the next big boondoggle folks.
We Don’t Need No Flaming Sparky Cars
Volvo has announced it will abandon its ambitious plan to sell only fully electric cars by 2030.
The Swedish company announced on Wednesday it is now aiming for 90-100 per cent of its global sales to be either pure electric or plug-in hybrid at that point.
It said this will “allow for a limited number of mild hybrid models to be sold, if needed”.
Showdown At Volkswagen
H/T to Melinda, “I think this is a really big deal. If you read between the lines, a tipping point of union power vs ongoing Corporate viability has been passed, and he’s doing something about it. Come hell or high water.”
Volkswagen boss Oliver Blume, already battling slowing demand for electric cars and Chinese rivals, must now put aside his mantle as team player to tackle yet another tough opponent, Germany’s powerful labour unions.
The pressure on Europe’s top carmaker was laid bare this week when Volkswagen disclosed it was not only planning to scrap a 30-year old job security scheme but weighing the closure of plants in Germany.
Moritz Kronenberger, portfolio manager at Volkswagen shareholder Union Investment, dubs these the company’s “two holy cows”.
By taking them on, Blume sets a collision course with one of Germany’s mightiest stakeholder groups, the IG Metall union, whose main goal is to protect jobs and sites and safeguard the favourable working conditions in Europe’s biggest economy.
VW works council head Daniela Cavallo said unions would “fiercely resist” the plans, ruling out any factory closures on her watch. She said a staff meeting on Wednesday, where management will face workers, would be “very uncomfortable”.
Volkswagen has not closed a plant since 1988 when it shut its Westmoreland site in Pennsylvania. In July it said it might close an Audi factory in Brussels citing a sharp drop in demand for high-end electric cars.