Category: It’s Probably Nothing

Another Zero Percent Interest Miracle!

Gradually Then Suddenly Great Moments In Socialism It's Probably Nothing 1 Comment

The purpose of interest rates is to align the supply of capital with the demand for it. When they fall to zero, that sends a false signal that capital practically self-replicates and that no one really needs to care about where capital gets invested. These “malinvestments” are starting to show up more and more these days.

Among other things, authorities are trying to determine whether Tricolor double-pledged—using the same set of subprime loans as collateral against multiple warehouse loans. This would be akin to a homeowner with a $500K mortgage on a $600K house taking a second mortgage for $500K without notifying—in fact, intentionally withholding relevant information from—the lender about the first mortgage.

Smelter Skelter

Gradually Then Suddenly Green Police 16 Comments

Reuters;

Glencore is planning to close its Horne smelter, Canada’s largest copper metal-producing operation, due to environmental issues and the millions of dollars needed to upgrade the facility, two sources with knowledge of the matter said.

The London-listed miner does not disclose copper metal production figures for its Canadian operation, but industry sources estimate annual output at more than 300,000 metric tons.

Meanwhile… REGULATORY RELIEF FOR CERTAIN STATIONARY SOURCES TO PROMOTE AMERICAN MINERAL SECURITY

Oil’s Well

Drill, Baby, Drill Gradually Then Suddenly It's Probably Nothing 3 Comments

An economy in recession doesn’t need as much oil as one that grows. Who knew? More evidence that the marginal consumer is throwing in the towel.

Investors and analysts have spent much of the year embracing the view that the oil market, which has been in oversupply mode, is heading straight for a glut through 2026 — and that glut could reach as high as 4 million barrels per day (b/d) and depress global prices even further along the way.

It’s Probably Nothing

Claws of the Panda It's Probably Nothing 12 Comments

Did China Down Two U.S. Navy Aircraft in South China Sea?

The incidents occurred amid President Trump’s tour of Asia, during which he is expected to meet a host of Asian leaders, including China’s leader, Xi Jinping, making it more suspicious, and embarrassing.

The South China Sea is an extremely sensitive geopolitical region, and potential flashpoint for conflict, where China asserts ownership over much of the region, despite an international court ruling rejecting Beijing’s claims.

Over the last two decades, China has bolstered its illegal claims by constructing military installations across the sea, including artificial militarized islands on reefs, challenging U.S. efforts to ensure freedom of navigation in these international waters.

The U.S. Navy’s operations in the region are part of a broader strategy to counter China’s maritime expansion and aggression.

Lacking Alternatives

Gradually Then Suddenly Great Reset It's Probably Nothing 18 Comments

Basically, Canada needs US markets a lot more than they need our markets, or anyone else’s for that matter.

Beaudry contrasted Canada’s dependence on global trade — roughly 40 per cent of the economy — with the U.S.’s much lower reliance at about 15 per cent. That difference, he said, helps explain why Washington can afford to use tariffs as a political and fiscal tool without triggering the same level of economic disruption seen elsewhere.

Dispatches from the Maple Gulag Truck Stop

Canada’s Bolsheviks Gradually Then Suddenly 15 Comments

 

But wait, there’s more.

 

Gord Magill has a book coming out…

Ghosts On The Grid

Alternative Subsidy It's Probably Nothing Little Known Facts 9 Comments

With the Feast of All Hallows rapidly approaching I thought it would be apt to explain how the grid is haunted by a concept that doesn’t really exist. A pre-occupation with a made-up concept risks the security of our power grids. In this blog I will explain how “vars” aren’t real, and treating them as if they are is creating existential risks on our power grids.

Not being able to properly explain reactive power is common in the energy industry – ask a dozen people to explain it and you’ll get twelve different answers. Most will reach for the beer-glass analogy where real power as the liquid and reactive power is the froth, or mutter something about “energy sloshing back and forth” on the grid. More sophisticated responses will mention capacitors “injecting vars” and inductors absorbing them. These phrases are repeated so often that they’ve become folklore. Unfortunately none of them describes what actually happens in power grids.

“Vars” in particular is an accounting fictions that obscure the underlying physics. And because we’ve replaced understanding of the physics with shorthand, we now incorrectly believe that anything producing current including batteries, solar inverters, or a clever algorithm, can perform the same stabilising role as the electromagnetic machines that built our power system.This misunderstanding could one day cost us the grid.

Go read it.

Elbows Down!

47 Art Of The Deal Gradually Then Suddenly It's Probably Nothing New Governor 11 Comments

I thought our new PM was just the guy we needed to stand up to the Americans. Oh, well…..

American truck maker Paccar Inc. is laying off 300 more factory workers in Quebec ahead of a 25 per cent import tariff to be imposed by the U.S. next month.

The factory in Sainte-Thérèse, a Montreal suburb, manufactures Kenworth and Peterbilt trucks and relies heavily on revenue from the United States.

Circling The Drain

entitlement generation Gradually Then Suddenly Great Moments In Socialism It's Probably Nothing New Governor 17 Comments

Voters want lots of free stuff, so maybe those things will just pay for themselves, right? Unfortunately, I don’t know of a political party with currently elected members which would make a serious dent in any of that spending.

For the 2025-2026 fiscal year, Desjardins is projecting a $70-billion deficit, although the report acknowledges some estimates from other sources have been as high as $100 billion.

“There is a lot to unpack in the run-up to what will be a truly unprecedented federal budget,” said the report. “Deficits could rise to levels not seen in decades outside of a recession or pandemic, and the debt-to-GDP ratio is likely to be headed in the wrong direction.”

 

Golden Opportunities

Gradually Then Suddenly Great Reset It's Probably Nothing 6 Comments

While monetary commodities like gold and silver continue to set new daily records in terms of their dollar price, it’s interesting to note that the dollar prices of non-monetary commodities like oil and copper continue to slide. That’s probably because economies tipping into recession don’t need as much oil and industrial metals as growing ones.

Gold prices rose by over 2% on Monday, buoyed by expectations of further U.S. interest rate cuts and sustained safe-haven demand, as investors awaited upcoming U.S.-China trade talks and inflation data out of the U.S. this week.

But zero percent interest rates ought to fix all those problems, right?

Meanwhile, traders are pricing in a 99% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next week, with another cut in December. Gold, a non-yielding asset, tends to do well in low-interest rate environments.

 

Wishful Thinking

Canada’s Bolsheviks Gradually Then Suddenly nannystate 28 Comments

At this point, I doubt that any measures are going to amount to anything other than flogging a dead horse.

Ottawa said the corporation is losing about $10 million per day, despite providing a $1-billion injection earlier this year to keep it operational. Since 2018, Canada Post has accumulated more than $5 billion in losses including more than $1 billion last year alone.

But Canada Post’s business model is meant to support communities across the country — especially those in remote locations who are hardest for private firms to reach — rather than chase profits, said Ann Armstrong, a professor at the University of Toronto’s Institute for Management and Innovation.

“There is something sacrosanct about a postal service,” she said.

“It seems to me the model is perfectly viable and needs to be preserved, if perhaps costs and so on need to be adjusted.”

 

Elbows Down!

Gradually Then Suddenly It's Probably Nothing There Goes The Narrative 4 Comments

For anyone who thinks that natural gas exports are going to magically replace job losses in the Canadian auto sector, think again.

Just five vessels sailed from the terminal in Kitimat, B.C. during the month of September, LNG Canada confirmed last week. It was short of the seven that had been expected, RBC Capital Markets said in note which pointed to a slower ramp-up of production at the Shell plc-led project since operations began in July.

Roughly 15 tankers per month will be required once the facility reaches full capacity, RBC noted.

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