Category: It’s Probably Nothing

Ready For What? Defeat?

Canada’s top general might want to start a new career in standup comedy. She’s got a few one-liners that are guaranteed to get some laughs.

And like all the militaries in the world … especially when we’re looking at our allies, we’re going to be ready to go as-is.

All of our services right now are crafting and positioning themselves to be able to take the additional number of people coming in. …Everybody is all-hands-on-deck in doing that. It’s quite exciting, I have to say.

Delusional Advice

It’s probably not a good idea to “stand firm” when your feet are in quicksand.

As Canada approaches a review of its key free trade deal with the United States next year, Unifor national president Lana Payne says it’s important to stand firm for a good deal. Payne said it’s important to play hardball, and not allow tariffs to be legitimized in any form. Instead, Canada needs to hold out and let the “self-inflicted wounds” of tariffs create pressure instead.

“We’re seeing that now in the United States where their economy is suffering and worsening by the day,” Payne said in a Dec. 19 interview.

Elbows Down!

Way down. Might as well stick a fork in us. Since GDP is just a measure of all the borrowing and spending in an economy no matter who undertakes it, it’s disturbing that our economy is contracting despite record deficits for all levels of government. The real problem is shrinking private sector manufacturing.

The Canadian economy shrank by a greater-than-expected 0.3% in October, the largest drop in almost ​three years, on weakness in both the goods and ‌services sectors, official data showed on Tuesday.

The manufacturing sector dropped by 1.5%, partly reflecting a ‌6.9% plunge in machinery output. Wood product manufacturing dropped by 7.3%…

 

Elbows Down!

Since existing port facilities don’t have the capacity, I fully expect that someone will soon suggest that we access magical new export markets by shipping through Churchill. This is what Canadian exceptionalism actually amounts to: the stubborn insistence that we’re entitled to our dreams no matter how hard reality smacks us in the face.

But a recent announcement from one of Canada’s most successful natural resources exporters, saying that future exports will soon be shipped to overseas markets from a port in the state of Washington instead of Canada’s west coast, has raised fresh questions about whether some key Canadian ports even have the capacity to handle any more of those diversified goods. Any bottlenecks or other inefficiencies would only be magnified if exporters are able to hit Carney’s recent target that Canada will double non-U.S. exports over the next decade.

The Numbers Game

It’s pretty hard to believe that a deficit could be literally twice what you estimated in the space of a few months, but Wab’s got one thing one his side: average John Q. Manitoba voter probably couldn’t care less. They just want the free stuff to keep coming.

The Manitoba government’s deficit for the current fiscal year is expected to reach $1.6 billion, more than double the $794 million estimated in the spring budget, the province’s second-quarter report released Monday showed.

There Was Significant Shrinkage…

More evidence that the marginal consumer is tapped out as shrinking economies continue to experience declining demand for commodities like oil. Is the concept of an oil pipeline from Alberta to coastal waters even viable at this point?

Even with a recent decision by OPEC to hold production rates steady through the first quarter, the International Energy Agency said last week that it now expects 2026’s oil glut to reach 3.8 million barrels per day.

On the water, crude tankers at sea are now holding more than 1 billion barrels — a figure that has steadily risen over the past few months as sellers have had a harder time finding buyers willing to take the oil.

Who Cares?

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko freed 123 prisoners on Saturday, including Nobel Peace Prize winner Ales Bialiatski and leading opposition figure Maria Kalesnikava, after two days of talks with an envoy for U.S. President Donald Trump, an American statement said.

In return, the United States agreed to lift sanctions on Belarusian potash. Potash is a key component in fertilizers, and the former Soviet state is a leading global producer.

Job Shredding

As is typical of mainstream financial media reporting, you need to scroll to the bottom of an article to see a comment by David Rosenberg regarding Canada’s recent unemployment numbers. I suppose putting the comment at the top would have raised too many eyebrows.

While Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey is telegraphing a jobs boom, its Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours (SEPH) is telling a different story, said Rosenberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research & Associates Inc. In the latter report the number of employees receiving pay and benefits dropped by 58,000 in September. For the first time in five years payroll employment was “completely flat,” he said.

“In a sign that there is more slack in the Canadian jobs market than meets the eye … if we were to superimpose the SEPH employment trend on the LFS (household) survey, the unemployment rate would be 8.2 per cent, not 6.9 per cent — and that would be the highest since May 2021,” said Rosenberg.

 

Dispatches from the Maple Gulag Truck Stop

Bankruptcies abound, yet the Mark Carney’s job numbers show a huge increase in transportation and warehousing?  I am starting to think the job numbers are prepared by the same people who said Mark Carney would win by a landslide in AlbertaTrucking News reports on bankruptcies in Canada and Freightwaves reports on US bankruptcies, so any news of growth in the industry is highly suspicious.  Several months ago Gord Magill reported on the financial chinanery in the trucking industry

Sonar truck freight index shows an 11% decrease this year after several years of decreases.  Yet somehow we are supposed to believe the economy is adding jobs when trucking is failing, construction jobs are down and housing sales are flat?  Something stinks in the state of Denmark.

Trump’s New National Security Strategy

Zerohedge;

The Trump administration’s just published new National Security Strategy has generated a lot of ‘shock’ and discussion since it appeared online early Friday. One of its more ‘controversial’ elements is the stark contrast in outlook on Europe in comparison with prior years’ national security strategy documents.

It warns that some of America’s oldest allies in Europe face “the real and more stark prospect of civilizational erasure” as a result of unchecked immigration, as well as the erosion of democratic principles. Alongside calling out irresponsible unchecked EU immigration policies, it further cites the curbing of free speech – also with the support for EU censorship excesses by transnational elite institutions, describing that “should present trends continue, the continent will be unrecognizable in 20 years or less.”

Matt Gurney and Jenn Gerson discuss implications for a similarly compromised northern free rider.

Some of what the document lays out is simply true, and Canadian and other allied politicians, especially on the left, have ignored those realities at their peril. Some of it is debatable, or at least worth taking seriously. And some of it is outright nuts, pulled straight from the conspiratorial anxieties of America’s far-right social media ecosystem. But whether reasonable, arguable, or deranged, it is now official White House policy — and the rest of us are going to have to learn to live with it.

From there, the conversation turns to how Canadians are, or aren’t, learning to live with it. There is still very little evidence that anyone here grasps the scale of the threat or the urgency involved. Jen introduces a new theory: Canada as a nation is increasingly resembling the federal New Democrats — and that’s not good news for anyone.

Then they get angry that the document treats us like a bitter underachiever, before going full CBC derangement.

Money For Nothing

Yet another example of what happens when a bunch of politicians scream “emergency” and a gullible John Q. Public largely falls for it. This reminds me of a Seinfeld episode where Kramer tries to explain to Jerry what happens when a company makes a bad investment decision: “They just write it off, Jerry!”

Ontario wrote off more than one billion items of personal protective equipment at a cost of $1.4 billion since 2021 and is now burning expired products, the province’s auditor general found.

The province signed long-term contracts for PPE between October 2020 and April 2021 that locked it into buying 188 million surgical masks annually. Yet it only distributed 39 million of those masks last year, or 21 per cent.

Circling The Drain

The mainstream financial media is subtly acknowledging that a lot of the price action in Bitcoin was fueled by leverage. We seem to be in the process of finding out how leveraged bets on a rising asset price work in reverse. Hint: they don’t work very well.

Bitcoin, which was soaring around $125,000 in October, dropped below $86,000. That’s down roughly 7% from a day earlier.

Strategy, the company that used to be known as MicroStrategy and now raises money just to buy bitcoin, lost 10.3%. It said that it raised a fund of $1.44 billion in U.S. dollars, not in bitcoin, by selling stock to help pay for its dividends on preferred shares and interest on its debt.

Gradually, Then Suddenly


Ptomekin Village PM gets results.

➜ Ontario’s housing engine has stalled: Starts are collapsing across the GTHA and GGH. Condo starts are down 51%, ground-oriented homes are down 43%, and overall starts are down 34%, with only rental apartments keeping the sector on life support. The weakness is not confined to condos or to Toronto.

➜ Tens of thousands of jobs are vanishing: The construction slowdown now equals 35,377 lost person-years of employment in the first 9 months of the year, and the losses are accelerating quarter after quarter.

➜ The real crash is still ahead: Pre-construction sales have fallen off a cliff, condo pre-sales down 89%, ground-oriented pre-sales down 65%, guaranteeing an even deeper downturn in 2026 and beyond.

@harrisonlowmanOnly 25 new condos were sold in downtown Toronto last month. How is this possible?

Salt in wound: Housing Minister Gregor Robertson’s department spent more than $97,000 to send managers to a two-day conference on homelessness for “inspiration,”

Added Costs

It looks like someone forgot to tell John Deere that tariffs are a win/win proposition. Considering that companies like Deere are a perfect example of what most people would consider heavy industry, what’s the point of burdening them with extra costs?

Deere & Co on Wednesday flagged a bigger hit from tariffs in 2026 ​and forecast its annual profit below estimates on the back of weaker ‌margins on large tractors, sending the farm-equipment maker’s shares down 5%.

Caterpillar didn’t get the memo either.

Caterpillar now expects a tariff hit of $1.5 billion to $1.8 billion this year, up from its prior forecast of up to $1.5 billion.

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