Blog Notes

Blogging 12 Comments

Posting has been slow as we’ve been fighting some stubborn security issues. Lance is taking a deep dive into the problem, but should that fail, we’ll be forced into an upgrade of our security support (again). If it comes to that, I may hold a mini-fundraiser to cover the costs. Many thanks to the readers who donate to SDA around the year – your support is very much appreciated!

Sept 7 Update: I did bite the bullet and have purchased a higher level of security monitoring and support. With luck, the problems we’ve been battling for the past few weeks will soon be resolved.

Many thanks to everyone who stepped up with donations. As you know, there are no ad links here, no envelopes of cash from political operatives, and no paywall subscriptions – nor will there be any. (Most of the book ads have long ago expired, I leave them up to support the authors). The blog is a volunteer effort, supported only by readers who drop a few bucks in the tip jar.

In a few instances my “thank you” notes bounce back (especially to those using gmail), so if you haven’t received one, let me thank you again here!

The Sound Of Settled Science

climategate Unsettled Science 38 Comments

Daily Mail;

A climate change scientist has claimed the world’s leading academic journals reject papers which don’t ‘support certain narratives’ about the issue and instead favor ‘distorted’ research which hypes up dangers rather than solutions.

Patrick T. Brown, a lecturer at Johns Hopkins University and doctor of earth and climate sciences, said editors at Nature and Science – two of the most prestigious scientific journals – select ‘climate papers that support certain preapproved narratives’.

In an article for The Free Press, Brown likened the approach to the way ‘the press focus so intently on climate change as the root cause’ of wildfires, including the recent devastating fires in Hawaii. He pointed out research that said 80 percent of wildfires are ignited by humans.

Brown gave the example of a paper he recently authored titled ‘Climate warming increases extreme daily wildfire growth risk in California’. Brown said the paper, published in Nature last week, ‘focuses exclusively on how climate change has affected extreme wildfire behavior’ and ignored other key factors.

Brown laid out his claims in an article titled ‘I Left Out the Full Truth to Get My Climate Change Paper Published‘. ‘I just got published in Nature because I stuck to a narrative I knew the editors would like. That’s not the way science should work,’ the article begins.

Good for him.

The Libranos: It Takes A Potemkin Village

Shiny Pony The Libranos 47 Comments

…Judith Robertson, cabinet’s $285,000-a year Commissioner responsible for the Agency, refused an interview.

When Central Planning Fails

Democrats Great Moments In Socialism 5 Comments

Find someone else to punish;

New York City has begun enforcing a 2022 law that restricts short-term rentals like Airbnb, $ABNB.

This action is anticipated to result in the removal of numerous listings from these platforms. It marks the latest and potentially the most significant development in the ongoing dispute between major cities and home-sharing companies.

The city contends that the widespread availability of short-term rentals on platforms such as Airbnb has contributed to rising rents and exacerbated the housing scarcity in New York City.

Airbnb has characterized these new regulations as an “effective prohibition” on its platform, while critics argue that the city is yielding to pressure from the hotel industry and eliminating affordable lodging options for visitors.

Under the new system, rentals shorter than 30 days are only allowed if hosts register with the city. Hosts must commit to being physically present in the home for the duration of the rental, sharing living quarters with their guest.

Related: The Roosevelt Hotel in NYC has 1,025 rooms and American taxpayers are currently paying for every one of those rooms to be filled by illegal immigrants – At a cost of $6,000 per family of illegals, per month.

It’s Probably Nothing

Democrats Great Reset 18 Comments

Redfin;

Investor home purchases fell 45% from a year earlier in the second quarter, outpacing the 31% drop in overall home sales. That’s the biggest decline since 2008 with the exception of the quarter before, when they dropped 48%. The decline comes as this year’s relatively cool housing and rental markets makes investing in homes less attractive than it was during the pandemic-driven homebuying frenzy of 2021 and early 2022. […]

This marks a retreat from a boom in investor activity during the pandemic, which was driven by record-low mortgage rates and huge homebuying and rental demand, creating opportunities for investors to make a lot of money.

“Offers from hedge funds have dried up; I haven’t received an offer from one in a long time, except unrealistically low offers,” said Las Vegas Redfin Premier agent Shay Stein. “From mid-2020 until early 2022 when interest rates started going up, hedge funds bought up a ton of properties and immediately turned them into rentals, pricing out local buyers. Now a big portion of our homes are owned by investors, but they’re not adding to their portfolios.”

In dollar terms, the drop in investor purchases is almost as big. Investors bought a total of $36.4 billion worth of homes in the second quarter, down 42% from a year earlier. That’s still above pre-pandemic levels, but dropping closer to it: Investors bought a total of $34 billion in the second quarter of 2018, and a total of $31.9 billion in the second quarter of 2019. The typical home purchased by investors in the second quarter cost $470,120, comparable with the $467,885 median price a year earlier.

Via @Wallstreetsil: Without transactions, many jobs that are commission oriented are seeing huge declines in incomes. Real estate agents, mortgage brokers, title insurance, home inspectors. All of the various categories are entering a depressions from lack of transactions.

Meanwhile in Canada…

The aggressive pace of interest-rate hikes is hitting mortgage books at Canada’s biggest banks, leading to slowing loan growth, longer amortization periods and a rise in impairments. Higher borrowing costs cut into mortgage growth, with would-be homebuyers sitting on the sidelines. At the country’s five largest lenders, including Royal Bank of Canada and Toronto-Dominion Bank, residential loan growth slowed to four per cent in the fiscal third quarter, compared with annual growth of 9.8 per cent a year earlier.

The horse is gone….

entitlement generation Great Moments In Socialism 24 Comments

I don’t recall hearing anyone of Doug Ford’s stature complaining when interest rates fell to zero and sparked a massive and unsustainable runup in asset and real estate prices. Too bad, folks, because that’s one big load of toothpaste that won’t be going back in the tube.

“Your rate hikes have made it next to impossible for young people, newcomers, and first-time homebuyers to have any place to call home,” Ford said in his letter.

He argued that cooling inflation was a reason not to raise interest rates further.

After Killing Saskatchewan’s Horseracing Industry

Equine 12 Comments

A city run by incompetent losers, top to bottom:

Plans to develop a multi-million-dollar soccer stadium and bring an expansion Canadian Premier League franchise to Saskatoon aren’t moving forward, Prairieland Park Corporation, one of the parties involved, announced on Tuesday. […]

In an email to the StarPhoenix, Kemppainen said since they don’t have a definitive date for when this project will be initiated again, “one could say that it is on indefinite hold.”

He said the timing just doesn’t appear to be ideal for “such an ambitious project,” citing interest rates, inflation and construction costs that have increased significantly since the work was started years ago.

“The pandemic interrupted the soccer plans and everybody is aware of the financial strain that has been inflicted on most businesses and governments as a result of this,” Kemppainen said in the email.

He reiterated that current economic conditions are the reason the project has been “adjourned.”

Flashback: “Saskatoon is ready for it. Saskatchewan is ready for it. No longer should we be a fly-over for some stuff. It’s time.”

He Admires Their Basic Dictatorship

Basic Dictatorship Let Them Eat Taser The Deplorables 31 Comments

National Post;

“We do not expect this to be the trial of the Freedom Convoy,” Lich and Barber’s lawyers said in a joint statement Friday.

“The central issue will be whether the actions of two of the organizers of a peaceful protest should warrant criminal sanction.”

Lich told a federal inquiry last year that when she told supporters to “hold the line,” she wasn’t encouraging them to stay in the capital, but rather to “stay true to your values in the face of adversity.”

The trial is expected to last at least 16 days, and is likely to include hundreds of social media posts by Lich, Barber and others, including videos that were livestreamed throughout the protest. Organizers used the live videos to document their experience and share thoughts and updates to supporters.

The court will likely also consider Barber’s private text messages with Lich, which were obtained by Ottawa police and entered as evidence by the Crown during one of Lich’s bail hearings last year. There is a publication ban on any messages regarding anyone other than Lich and Barber.

Because there’s always a publication ban.

Y2Kyoto: Schadenfrozen

Great Moments In Socialism Y2Kyoto 27 Comments

CNBC;

Germany is once again the “sick man of Europe,” according to Hans-Werner Sinn, president emeritus at the Ifo institute, and the challenges that poses, particularly in terms of the country’s energy strategy, could serve to benefit increasingly popular right-wing parties.

The “sick man of Europe” moniker has resurfaced in recent weeks as manufacturing output continues to stutter in the region’s largest economy and the country grapples with high energy prices. The label was originally used to describe the German economy in 1998 as it navigated the costly challenges of a post-reunification economy.

“It is not a short-term phenomenon,” Sinn told CNBC’s Steve Sedgwick at the Ambrosetti Forum in Italy on Friday.[…]

But there are growing signs of public disenchantment in the shift to a more sustainable Europe, with a so-called “greenlash” emerging as people feel the cost impacts.

Sinn suggested there would be political ramifications as a result of the focus on sustainability.

“There is a backlash clearly … The population is now moving to the right,” Sinn said, referring to the popularity of the right-leaning Alternative for Germany party, which won a district council election for the first time in June.

“I am not moving to evaluate anything here, but … the policies which were, for ideological reasons, completely overdrawn … Pragmatism is a little bit missing in current policy,” he added.

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