Category: Unsettled Science

The Lesser Known Eisenhower Quote

Grab a coffee.

“The prospect of domination of the nation’s scholars by Federal employment, project allocations, and the power of money is ever present and is gravely to be regarded. Yet, in holding scientific research and discovery in respect, as we should, we must also be alert to the equal and opposite danger that public policy could itself become the captive of a scientific-technological elite.” *

The Sound Of Settled Science

Climate models versus climate reality

Everyone by now is familiar with the “pause” or “slowdown” in the rate of global warming that has taken place over the past 20 years of so, but few realize is that the observed warming rate has been beneath the model mean expectation for periods extending back to the mid-20th century–60+ years.
We demonstrate this fact with our comparison of the observed warming rate to that of the range of climate model-predicted warming rates for all periods from 1951 ending with the most recent available data.

David Suzuki, call your office.

Right before COP-21 too. That will leave a mark.

In a major speech setting out a new strategy, the energy secretary is expected to say that from now on, policies will balance “the need to decarbonise with the need to keep bills as low as possible”.
“Energy security has to be the first priority. It is fundamental to the health of our economy and the lives of our people,” she will say.

Funny, how seniors freezing to death tends to galvanize politicians who care more about their constituents than their “international reputation”.

But he said there should be a “break from the past” in order to “meet objectives in the most cost-effective way possible, with the government getting out the way and letting the market prevail where it can”.

Read: subsidies are going to stop.

The Sound Of Settled Science

CBC News;

The study published last week in BMJ Open [British Medical Journal] compared data from provinces like B.C. that have introduced mandatory helmet laws to those without them. Although helmet legislation was effective in getting more cyclists to wear helmets, it did not translate into fewer head injuries.
“Helmet laws didn`t make a difference to hospitalization rates for head and brain injuries,” said study author Prof. Kay Teschke.

The Sound Of Settled Science

Unexpected Honey Study Shows Woes of Nutrition Research

Almost everything we “know” is based on small, flawed studies. The conclusions that can be drawn from them are limited, but often oversold by researchers and the news media. This is true not only of the newer work that we see, but also the older research that forms the basis for much of what we already believe to be true. I’m not ignoring blockbuster studies because I don’t agree with their findings; I’m usually just underwhelmed by what I can meaningfully conclude from them.

h/t meatriarch (who may have a hidden agenda in passing this along)

The Sound Of Settled Science

Lucas Bergkamp (via Judith Curry);

In short, consensus is not necessarily irrelevant, but consensus needs to be understood to determine how much weight it should be given, and how it compares to other scientific opinions. Unthinkingly rubberstamping consensus science is not a good practice. In a court room, a claim that there is scientific consensus raises several questions. First, what is the basis for the claim that there is consensus? In other words, how do we know there is consensus at all, and how strong is the evidence supporting the consensus? Second, what is the nature and extent of the scientific consensus? This examination covers issues such as precisely on which findings and facts is there consensus and why, and on which findings and facts is there disagreement and why. Third, how was the consensus produced, i.e. in what kind of environment? Of course, consensus that is based not on persuasive argument, but on silencing dissent by inappropriate means, is not worth anything. Likewise, if an area of science is politicized, consensus may not signal the state of the science, but political dominance.

The Sound Of Settled Science

Junk Science: Not a single epidemiological study credibly links meat-eating with cancer

Consider the data presented for processed meat, which the AICR report claims to be too dangerous to eat.
Of the 17 study results concerning processed meat and colon cancer comparing high consumption to low consumption 15 are way below, and one is at the 100 percent-risk threshold. Thirteen studies aren’t statistically significant. Not only is the lone study claiming a risk above 100 percent (a reported 250 percent increase in risk) barely statistically significant, it has a margin of error four times the size of the reported risk.
Of the seven studies reporting a cancer risk per serving of processed meat, all reported risks are substantially below the 100 percent threshold. Four results are clearly not statistically significant and two are borderline insignificant.
On the basis of these dubious statistical results, the AICR report concludes that “processed meat is a convincing cause of colorectal cancer.” This is an appalling and unsupported conclusion.

That a lazy intellect and pathetic math skills are a direct cause of lousy journalism, however, is beyond dispute. (h/t nold)

The Sound of Settled Science

Matt Ridley on what the climate wars did for science:

For much of my life I have been a science writer. That means I eavesdrop on what’s going on in laboratories so I can tell interesting stories. It’s analogous to the way art critics write about art, but with a difference: we “science critics” rarely criticise. If we think a scientific paper is dumb, we just ignore it. There’s too much good stuff coming out of science to waste time knocking the bad stuff.
Sure, we occasionally take a swipe at pseudoscience–homeopathy, astrology, claims that genetically modified food causes cancer, and so on. But the great thing about science is that it’s self-correcting. The good drives out the bad, because experiments get replicated and hypotheses put to the test. So a really bad idea cannot survive long in science.
Or so I used to think. Now, thanks largely to climate science, I have changed my mind. It turns out bad ideas can persist in science for decades, and surrounded by myrmidons of furious defenders they can turn into intolerant dogmas.

Read the whole thing.

Don’t Worry

It’s really, really hard to catch;

A British nurse who was apparently cured of Ebola earlier this year is now in a critical condition, doctors have said, with experts expressing astonishment at the deterioration of her condition. […]
Doctors have said she is suffering an “unusual late complication” of her previous infection. Ebola virus can linger for months in survivors without causing serious ill effects or infection risk and is also known to cause long-term health problems in many patients.
However, medical understanding of the disease’s after-effect is limited due to the relatively low number of historic cases.

Nonetheless…

“The change in [Pauline Cafferkey’s] condition does not imply any increased risk to the general public…”

Never let a limited understanding get in the way of certainty, I say.

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