Surely, no one meant this literally: Can a Butterfly in Brazil Really Cause a Tornado in Texas?
Almost everyone has heard the claim that a butterfly can flap its wings in one part of the world and cause a chain reaction of events that ultimately results in a major event on the other side of the world. For example, a butterfly wing flap in Brazil could cause a tornado in Texas. Indeed, this concept has permeated popular society. . .
In academia, the concept of the butterfly effect apparently first appeared in an article in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society by J. Smagorinsky in 1969, but the specific question “Does the flap of a butterfly’s wings in Brazil set off a tornado in Texas?” was introduced by Ed Lorenz at the 1972 Meeting of AAAS Section on Environmental Sciences.
Good Lord, it seems some do.
. . . existing numerical models cannot accommodate a disturbance as small as the flap of a butterfly’s wing, meaning we cannot accurately predict the resulting weather phenomena using numerical models.
But despite the lack of scientific evidence supporting the idea that a butterfly wing flap could create a tornado in Brazil, the prevailing opinion, even among many in the atmospheric science community, continues to be that it is, indeed, possible.