Stephen Thompson (letter to the editor) in Ontario Farmer: Farmland bubble likely to burst
At this time of year farmers become giddy when talking about what people are paying to buy farmland, especially in recent years when prices have skyrocketed.
Agriculture’s talking heads try to normalize the situation by claiming things are fine, even as the excesses become ever-increasingly wretched. Particularly cringe-worthy is the claim by some lenders that they don’t have a problem because their farm borrowers have oodles of equity.
Unfortunately, this type of claim ignores the reality that this isn’t earned equity, but speculative equity based on land prices that aren’t tethered in any meaningful way to any earnings component for that land.
Astute investors pay heed to two long-standing investment ‘Bibles’ as well as one relatively recent book and even a movie. The first is the 1841 book by Scottish author Charles Mackay -‘Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds’ the second is the 1949 book – ‘The Intelligent Investor’ by legendary Wall Street investor Benjamin Graham; the third, published initially in 2000, is ‘Irrational Exuberance’ by US economist Robert Shiller and the movie is ‘The Big Short’ released in late 2015.
The common thread of all four references is the emphasis on the danger of investing in something that has either no earnings potential or an earnings profile completely estranged from the market price of that asset, as is presently the case with farmland.
Another common denominator is the significance of the fear of missing out, also a large part of today’s farmland price scenario.
That we are in the midst of a farmland speculative bubble is not open for debate or even discussion. In addition to having thrown any sort of price/earnings multiple restraint out the window, we farmers fundamentally believe “this time it’s different” (it never is) and we believe the talking heads when we should be paying no attention to them at all. The result, in too many cases, is that farmland is being bought as a ‘trophy’ simply because we can.
The worst part about being on the other side of the psychological mania inherent in any investment bubble, as was well demonstrated in the Big Short, is that you can be wrong for years and be widely ridiculed for being wrong, but bubbles always eventually burst or deflate rapidly when least expected.
Via Ian Cummings