Category: Gradually Then Suddenly

New Governor, Same As The Old Governor

And the return of our old friend, “unexpectedly”.

The Canadian economy lost the most jobs since January 2022, and excluding the pandemic, it’s the largest drop in seven years.

Employment fell by 40,800 positions in July, driven by decreases in full-time work, while the jobless rate held firm at 6.9%, Statistics Canada data showed Friday. The number of job losses surpassed even the most pessimistic projection in a Bloomberg survey of economists.

The monthly decline was concentrated among youth ages 15 to 24, who are usually among the first to experience a labor-market downturn. Their unemployment rate reached 14.6%, the highest since September 2010 outside of the pandemic. The employment rate for youth fell to the lowest since November 1998, excluding the years impacted by Covid-19.

The Canadian labor market failed to sustain its strong momentum from June, when it surprisingly added the most jobs in six months. The Bank of Canada held its policy interest rate at 2.75% for a third straight meeting last week, but said the labor market remains soft, with the unemployment rate rising from 6.6% at the beginning of the year.

That Sinking Feeling

Are the boom years in the housing market finally petering out? We’ll soon know for sure. One thing is for certain: the marginal home buyer is stepping away from the market in bigger and bigger numbers.

The Calgary Real Estate Board says home sales in the city declined 11.6 per cent in July compared with last year as inventory grew to levels not seen since before the pandemic.

There were 3,911 new listings on the market last month, up 8.6 per cent from a year earlier, as the city’s inventory reached 6,917 homes for sale — a 66.1 per cent surge.

Elbows Down!

The water carriers for the Trump Whisperer are out in full force today, blissfully unaware how stupid it looks to portray a stunning defeat as a victory. It’s notable that no one wants to mention the elephant in the room: the undue influence of the Canadian dairy lobby which is a major reason why these talks went nowhere.

Payne thinks Canada has leverage — aluminum, critical minerals, electricity, oil and potash — and should be using them to retaliate. She said she has repeated that message to Canada’s ambassador to the U.S. and the prime minister’s office.

“It’s important right now that we draw a line in the sand and understand that Canada has a lot of strength and a lot of leverage, and we’re going to have to use some of it.”

Rough Landing

If Canadians were going to “stick it to Trump” by offsetting a decline in travel to the US with an equivalent boost in domestic travel, apparently Air Canada didn’t get that memo. Canadian exceptionalism, it seems, is characterized by a mass of financially exhausted marginal consumers.

Shares of Air Canada (AC.TO) fell over 10 per cent on Tuesday, after the airline’s quarterly earnings missed expectations.

The airline continues to see lower demand for trips to the U.S., with revenue dropping 11 per cent on eight per cent less capacity, says president and CEO Michael Rousseau.

Elbows Down!

Thus far, the election of the man many said was just the ticket to stand up to Trump has garnered results that are a bit less than stellar.

The talks, said one Canadian government source, who spoke on condition of anonymity, “have been volatile.”

“By the end of May, before we even hit the 50 per cent tariffs, we saw a 30 per cent decline in production across the country,” said Catherine Cobden, president and CEO of the Canadian Steel Producers Association (CSPA). She doesn’t have the June numbers yet, but she expects it be “much worse.”

Bargains Galore

In an economy overloaded with exponentially growing debt, vendors actually have very little pricing power. If they try to raise prices the marginal consumer will just say no. What they can do, however, is lower their asking price, and that’s exactly what’s happening. It’s either that or fold the tent.

IKEA announced on Tuesday it’s cutting its restaurant prices in half for adults and children eat free from Monday to Friday.

That Giant Sucking Sound You’re Hearing

National Post- Canadian talent (and money) is fleeing to the U.S.

In fields ranging from engineering to law, the average Canadian professional can not only make more money in the United States, but face dramatically lower housing prices and cost of living expenses. The disparity has long been most obvious in the tech sector. In some years, the University of Waterloo’s software engineering department has immediately lost up to 85 per cent of its graduates to jobs in the United States.

Primacy of Consciousness

If you imagine an event will happen, is that a guarantee that it will? That certainly seems to encapsulate Doug Ford’s view of our current trade negotiations with the US.

I’ll take “bloviating sanctimonious blowhard” for $100, Alex….

“We have to negotiate through strength,” Ford responds, “and we really have to flex our muscles and make sure President Trump hears us.”

“(Americans) are going to feel the pressure,” Ford says. “They’re going to feel the pressure when Americans start losing their jobs because we’re going to start on-shoring everything, and once that happens, I told Lutnick, it’s hard to turn that tap off.”

Priced Out of the Market

The mechanism of Net Present Value can be a real bear sometimes. Particularly when interest rates fall for over forty years, housing costs soar and your wages don’t keep up.

In 1985, for example, the median home price was about $81,000, but rose by 406 percent to about $426,000 in 2023. Obviously, any taxes, insurance, and down payments that are proportional to the home price were far lower in 1985 than they are now. Moreover, as home prices quintupled from 1985 to 2023, median household income only increased by 241 percent, rising from about $23,000 in 1985 to $84,000 in 2023.

If Pulte really wanted to see homes become more affordable, he would push for less monetary inflation and for lower federal deficits. He would push for the Fed to reduce its balance sheet of mortgage backed securities.

Unemployment Enjoyment

Elbows up? Oh, wait…scratch that….

Four of the five highest unemployment rates in the country are in this region, with Windsor leading the way at 11.2 per cent.

The auto city is followed by Peterborough at 10 per cent, Oshawa at 9.3 and Toronto at 8.7. Canadian manufacturing has shed nearly 45,000 jobs since January — the largest employment decline of any sector  — and these regions make up almost a quarter of that workforce, said Battaglia.

Elbows Down

I’m sure the new PM will be able to fix all these problems, right? Perhaps a few more taxpayer bailouts with cute titles like the Ontario Together Trade Fund will do the trick.

The Canadian Federation of Independent Business released a report Wednesday based on a survey of 187 small-to-medium-sized businesses in the automotive sector, from parts suppliers to repair shops, and found that tariffs are already having an impact.

Their revenue has declined by 13 per cent, on average, and half of them reported that they have paused or cancelled investments due to uncertainty caused by the Canada-U.S. trade war, which could lead to billions in lost revenue or missed investments, the report said.

Elbows Up, Rates Down!

A recent addition to the news category of No Surprise There. Average Joe Voter would happily choose lower debt service costs and more free stuff from the government over unaffordable housing any day, since he cannot grasp the connection between those two phenomena in the first place.

Nearly two-thirds of Canadians (64 per cent) say they desperately need interest rates to fall, given the financial constraints they’re under. Over one-third (36 percent) report feeling anxious or stressed about their financial situation, while one-quarter say they’ve had to stall life plans (26 per cent) or are constantly putting out financial fires due to an endless stream of unexpected costs (24 per cent).

 

Cottage Country Bust

Higher interest rates coupled with rising unemployment are throwing the marginal consumer out of the cottage market in a big way.

One three-bedroom cottage sold for $735,000 in April — a 33 per cent loss for the previous owner who purchased it in 2021 for $1.1 million.

“You’ve got to be struggling financially to take a $300,000 loss,” Blenkarn said. “Nobody wants to sell for a loss like that.”

Blenkarn said he is also seeing cottages being leased out and up for sale at the same time, an indicator that the owner is having trouble affording the property in the interim.

 

No House For You!

Saddle the economy with enough debt and you’ll find that fewer and fewer people will have the means to afford a house. It’s all about the concept of Net Present Value.

Politically, however, the central bank’s efforts to force down interest rates—which has required monetary inflation—has been justified on the grounds that it “increases homeownership.” Moreover, Federal policymakers since 2008 doubled down on subsidizing home purchases with the bailouts of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in 2008.

Yet, none of this has produced more affordable homes. It has only led to price inflation. This has been great for Wall Street and those who already own assets. It’s been a disaster for younger people and first-time home buyers.

Circling The Drain

In addition to the many reasons why DOGE failed, I would add this: John Q. Voter likes deficit spending and he will punish nearly any politician who begs to differ.

“The federal government is not a business, and the executive branch has very limited authority with respect to spending,” explained Ditch. “While there is tremendous waste and dysfunction within the federal budget, the largest problem is the government doing too many things it shouldn’t and subsidizing nearly everything under the sun. Congress has primary responsibility for the size, scope, and spending of the federal government.”

Drilling For Debt

One measure of Canadian exceptionalism might be how much capital we insist on destroying in order to shove harmless trace gases deep into the earth.

He made his announcement at the site of Bow Valley Carbon Cochrane Ltd. northwest of Calgary, where emissions from a natural gas extraction plant are to be stored four kilometres underground. Bow Valley is a partnership between Inter Pipeline Ltd. and Entropy Inc.

It is to receive $10 million to add equipment to the plant, and Hodgson says its emissions reductions will equate to taking more than 12,000 cars of the road a year.

Elbows Down!

Didn’t Carney say we were going to make up for declining trade with the US by achieving closer ties with Europe? I guess our manufacturers didn’t get that memo.

The downturn in Canada’s manufacturing sector deepened in June as U.S. tariffs undercut demand, spurring the sharpest cut to output in five years, data on Wednesday showed.

The S&P Global Canada Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) edged down to 45.6 in June from 46.1 in May, registering the fifth straight sub-50 reading. A level below 50 indicates contraction in the sector.

Explaining Civilisation

To those seemingly unfamiliar with the concept:

The uninvited newcomers – chiefly, it seems, men of fighting age and all mysteriously unencumbered by identifying documents – are given helpful pointers on the customary use of pavements and pedestrian crossings, and are warned about the hazards of randomly strolling through moving traffic on busy roads. They are also introduced to the novel concepts of avoiding foul language in public and not abusing animals for amusement purposes.

Other teething problems have, it seems, arisen:

“The initiative by Northamptonshire Police followed community and parental complaints over young male asylum seekers loitering near a primary school in the county, including claims of filming.”

Not loitering at the gates of primary schools in order to film small children being another cultural subtlety requiring clarification.

Oh, there’s more. Much more.

New Governor, Same As The Old Governor

Toronto Sun;

Proactive disclosures filed after June’s G7 summit in Kananaskis show the round table world leaders huddled around last weekend cost taxpayers $258,300.

The table, designed and built by Calgary-based furniture maker Möbius Objects, consisted of a beige finish and included a number of surrounding desks for staffers.

According to the disclosure, Möbius Objects was awarded the Global Affairs Canada table tender in a two-bid competition, chosen on Jan. 15 by Public Services and Procurement Canada due to a “highest combined rating of technical merit and price,” with a June 4 delivery date.

Inquiries to Global Affairs Canada by the Toronto Sun went unacknowledged.

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