Category: Gradually Then Suddenly

Elbows Down!

Gradually Then Suddenly It's Probably Nothing New Governor 21 Comments

Way down. Might as well stick a fork in us. Since GDP is just a measure of all the borrowing and spending in an economy no matter who undertakes it, it’s disturbing that our economy is contracting despite record deficits for all levels of government. The real problem is shrinking private sector manufacturing.

The Canadian economy shrank by a greater-than-expected 0.3% in October, the largest drop in almost ​three years, on weakness in both the goods and ‌services sectors, official data showed on Tuesday.

The manufacturing sector dropped by 1.5%, partly reflecting a ‌6.9% plunge in machinery output. Wood product manufacturing dropped by 7.3%…

 

Elbows Down!

Gradually Then Suddenly It's Probably Nothing New Governor There Goes The Narrative 21 Comments

Since existing port facilities don’t have the capacity, I fully expect that someone will soon suggest that we access magical new export markets by shipping through Churchill. This is what Canadian exceptionalism actually amounts to: the stubborn insistence that we’re entitled to our dreams no matter how hard reality smacks us in the face.

But a recent announcement from one of Canada’s most successful natural resources exporters, saying that future exports will soon be shipped to overseas markets from a port in the state of Washington instead of Canada’s west coast, has raised fresh questions about whether some key Canadian ports even have the capacity to handle any more of those diversified goods. Any bottlenecks or other inefficiencies would only be magnified if exporters are able to hit Carney’s recent target that Canada will double non-U.S. exports over the next decade.

The Numbers Game

Canada’s Bolsheviks entitlement generation Gradually Then Suddenly It's Probably Nothing 13 Comments

It’s pretty hard to believe that a deficit could be literally twice what you estimated in the space of a few months, but Wab’s got one thing one his side: average John Q. Manitoba voter probably couldn’t care less. They just want the free stuff to keep coming.

The Manitoba government’s deficit for the current fiscal year is expected to reach $1.6 billion, more than double the $794 million estimated in the spring budget, the province’s second-quarter report released Monday showed.

There Was Significant Shrinkage…

Gradually Then Suddenly Great Reset It's Probably Nothing 7 Comments

More evidence that the marginal consumer is tapped out as shrinking economies continue to experience declining demand for commodities like oil. Is the concept of an oil pipeline from Alberta to coastal waters even viable at this point?

Even with a recent decision by OPEC to hold production rates steady through the first quarter, the International Energy Agency said last week that it now expects 2026’s oil glut to reach 3.8 million barrels per day.

On the water, crude tankers at sea are now holding more than 1 billion barrels — a figure that has steadily risen over the past few months as sellers have had a harder time finding buyers willing to take the oil.

Job Shredding

Gradually Then Suddenly It's Probably Nothing New Governor 11 Comments

As is typical of mainstream financial media reporting, you need to scroll to the bottom of an article to see a comment by David Rosenberg regarding Canada’s recent unemployment numbers. I suppose putting the comment at the top would have raised too many eyebrows.

While Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey is telegraphing a jobs boom, its Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours (SEPH) is telling a different story, said Rosenberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research & Associates Inc. In the latter report the number of employees receiving pay and benefits dropped by 58,000 in September. For the first time in five years payroll employment was “completely flat,” he said.

“In a sign that there is more slack in the Canadian jobs market than meets the eye … if we were to superimpose the SEPH employment trend on the LFS (household) survey, the unemployment rate would be 8.2 per cent, not 6.9 per cent — and that would be the highest since May 2021,” said Rosenberg.

 

Dispatches from the Maple Gulag Truck Stop

Canada’s Bolsheviks Forward! Gradually Then Suddenly Great Moments In Socialism It's Probably Nothing 11 Comments

Bankruptcies abound, yet the Mark Carney’s job numbers show a huge increase in transportation and warehousing?  I am starting to think the job numbers are prepared by the same people who said Mark Carney would win by a landslide in Alberta.  Trucking News reports on bankruptcies in Canada and Freightwaves reports on US bankruptcies, so any news of growth in the industry is highly suspicious.  Several months ago Gord Magill reported on the financial chinanery in the trucking industry

Sonar truck freight index shows an 11% decrease this year after several years of decreases.  Yet somehow we are supposed to believe the economy is adding jobs when trucking is failing, construction jobs are down and housing sales are flat?  Something stinks in the state of Denmark.

Money For Nothing

Gradually Then Suddenly It's Probably Nothing nannystate 5 Comments

Yet another example of what happens when a bunch of politicians scream “emergency” and a gullible John Q. Public largely falls for it. This reminds me of a Seinfeld episode where Kramer tries to explain to Jerry what happens when a company makes a bad investment decision: “They just write it off, Jerry!”

Ontario wrote off more than one billion items of personal protective equipment at a cost of $1.4 billion since 2021 and is now burning expired products, the province’s auditor general found.

The province signed long-term contracts for PPE between October 2020 and April 2021 that locked it into buying 188 million surgical masks annually. Yet it only distributed 39 million of those masks last year, or 21 per cent.

Circling The Drain

Gaming Gradually Then Suddenly It's Probably Nothing There Goes The Narrative 9 Comments

The mainstream financial media is subtly acknowledging that a lot of the price action in Bitcoin was fueled by leverage. We seem to be in the process of finding out how leveraged bets on a rising asset price work in reverse. Hint: they don’t work very well.

Bitcoin, which was soaring around $125,000 in October, dropped below $86,000. That’s down roughly 7% from a day earlier.

Strategy, the company that used to be known as MicroStrategy and now raises money just to buy bitcoin, lost 10.3%. It said that it raised a fund of $1.44 billion in U.S. dollars, not in bitcoin, by selling stock to help pay for its dividends on preferred shares and interest on its debt.

Gradually, Then Suddenly

Gradually Then Suddenly New Governor 21 Comments


Ptomekin Village PM gets results.

➜ Ontario’s housing engine has stalled: Starts are collapsing across the GTHA and GGH. Condo starts are down 51%, ground-oriented homes are down 43%, and overall starts are down 34%, with only rental apartments keeping the sector on life support. The weakness is not confined to condos or to Toronto.

➜ Tens of thousands of jobs are vanishing: The construction slowdown now equals 35,377 lost person-years of employment in the first 9 months of the year, and the losses are accelerating quarter after quarter.

➜ The real crash is still ahead: Pre-construction sales have fallen off a cliff, condo pre-sales down 89%, ground-oriented pre-sales down 65%, guaranteeing an even deeper downturn in 2026 and beyond.

@harrisonlowman – Only 25 new condos were sold in downtown Toronto last month. How is this possible?

Salt in wound: Housing Minister Gregor Robertson’s department spent more than $97,000 to send managers to a two-day conference on homelessness for “inspiration,”

Added Costs

Gradually Then Suddenly It's Probably Nothing 28 Comments

It looks like someone forgot to tell John Deere that tariffs are a win/win proposition. Considering that companies like Deere are a perfect example of what most people would consider heavy industry, what’s the point of burdening them with extra costs?

Deere & Co on Wednesday flagged a bigger hit from tariffs in 2026 ​and forecast its annual profit below estimates on the back of weaker ‌margins on large tractors, sending the farm-equipment maker’s shares down 5%.

Caterpillar didn’t get the memo either.

Caterpillar now expects a tariff hit of $1.5 billion to $1.8 billion this year, up from its prior forecast of up to $1.5 billion.

Car Loan Blues

Climate Cult Gradually Then Suddenly It's Probably Nothing 30 Comments

Yet more evidence that the marginal consumer, in this case the marginal car buyer, simply can’t afford that shiny metal anymore.

Scott Terrio, manager of consumer insolvency at Hoyes, Michalos & Associates, says that in his 17 years on the job, this is the first year he’s seen people contacting the firm with the intention of returning their vehicles.

“It’s very non-typical,” he said. “They’ve recognized that their car is killing them financially.”

Not to worry. I’m sure that tweaking EV mandates from 100% of new car sales to 90% will fix all of that.

Talkin’ Bout My Generation…

entitlement generation Gradually Then Suddenly It's Probably Nothing 10 Comments

The more pressing question is: can most retirement funds generate sufficient capital to sustain themselves for such a long period? I’ll hazard a guess that most government plans don’t have nearly enough. Speaking from personal experience, I’d go crazy if I stopped working completely.

Not only is retirement coming faster, Canadians are also living longer. Since 2023, life expectancy in Canada has risen two years to 83, and since 2001 the number of people over 100 has doubled, said the study. Globally, the number of centenarians is expected to grow by 800 per cent by 2050.

Instead of the 20 to 30 “golden years” of earlier generations, workers today are potentially looking at retirements that span 40 years or more.

 

Money For Nothing

DigitalCurrency Gradually Then Suddenly It's Probably Nothing 26 Comments

That’s 600 billion, with a ‘B’. How much of the melt-up was driven by leverage, and who’s left holding the bag for those loans?

After topping $126,000 in October, Bitcoin has fallen sharply, briefly wiping out its 2025 gains before stabilizing on Monday.

With gold and stocks near all-time highs, Bitcoin is the “tip of the risk-assets iceberg and melting,” said Mike McGlone, senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence. “I expect Bitcoin and most cryptos to keep falling.”

Nothing Burgers

Gradually Then Suddenly It's Probably Nothing 8 Comments

When the marginal consumer can no longer afford Wendy’s, you just know things are going downhill.

There are currently about 6,000 Wendy’s locations in the U.S. Locations that are “consistently underperforming” will close in late 2025 or at some point in 2026. The number of stores affected could be up to around 350. Nation’s Restaurant News noted that Cook indicated they were “acting with urgency” to reverse the negative trend.

As CNN detailed, Wendy’s sales in the last quarter were down nearly 5 percent.

New Governor, Same As The Old Governor

Gradually Then Suddenly New Governor The Libranos 23 Comments

Fitch ain’t having any of it.

Persistent Fiscal Expansion Underscores Canada Rating Pressures

Canada’s (AA+/Stable) proposed budget, announced in Parliament on Nov. 4, underscores the erosion of the federal government’s finances, says Fitch Ratings. While Canada’s rating is broadly stable, persistent fiscal expansion and a rising debt burden have weakened its credit profile and could increase rating pressure over the medium term. This may be exacerbated by persistent economic underperformance caused by tariff risks and structural challenges, including low productivity. […]

Combined with sizable non-budgetary financing needs (mainly support of enterprise crown corporations), the higher deficits will substantially increase general government gross debt (GGGD), which we forecast to reach 91.8% of GDP in 2025 from 88.6% in 2024, before accelerating to 98.5% by 2027, nearly double the forecast ‘AA’ median of 49.6%.

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