One possible reason why gold is setting new records in dollar terms is fear of default; i.e. a growing realization that some governments are on the verge of stiffing their creditors. Today, default is becoming a possibility not just for third world backwaters, but for large economies such as France. The reasons are simple enough, as this video explains. France is spending itself into oblivion thanks to pensions that pay out more in benefits than a working person earns.
Elbows Down!
What did anyone think was going to materialize out of this trip? All that remains is for the new governor’s water carriers to invent some positive spin for what is really another political loss.
Prime Minister Mark Carney is set to return to Ottawa today with no deals to remove U.S. tariffs from Canadian goods, but he’s leaving his key minister on Canada-U.S. trade behind to keep pressing the Canadian case.
Seismic Shifts
Despite all the hoopla about debt-driven GDP growth as a sign of a booming economy, the real economy apparently didn’t get that memo from the Keynesians. Shrinking business investment means less demand for basic commodities like oil.
They were about to get some life-changing news. Their employer, a major oil producer almost as old as Canada, was going to reveal a dramatic shift in strategy. Imperial would be selling its sprawling headquarters in Calgary, cutting hundreds of jobs and potentially outsourcing many of those positions overseas.
One worker said they had suspected something was up, but nothing that seismic.
Get Ready for the Firehose of Prosperity…
Canada to avoid recession in 2025; economist predicts ‘firehose of monetary and fiscal policy support’ https://t.co/0j2aZsF08X
“After a steep decline, we’re coming back a little bit,” Desjardins told Yahoo Finance Canada in an interview. “We’re in this period of slow growth, just treading water.”…
“While not an economic rebound to write home about, it does suggest that a 2025 recession in Canada isn’t a foregone conclusion,” he wrote in a report earlier this month. “The Canadian economy isn’t out of the woods yet.”
The federal government is due to release its fall budget in November. Prime Minister Mark Carney has said it will feature “the biggest investment in this country’s future in a generation.”
“A leak from a senior official [suggests] that the Government of Canada’s deficit could reach $100 billion this year when the long‑overdue federal budget is released on November 4,” Bartlett wrote.
Maybe it’s tent sales that will bring Canada out of this recession?
That Sinking Feeling
Not to worry. I’m sure this thing will pay for itself.
Canada recorded a slightly higher C$7.79 billion ($5.59 billion) budget deficit for the first four months of the 2025/26 fiscal year as government expenditures grew faster than revenues, the finance ministry said on Friday.
By comparison, the deficit in the same period a year earlier had been C$7.30 billion, it said in a statement.
The Cheque Is In The Mail
Our family farm used to have mail delivery to the top of our lane but that was discontinued sometime in the early 1960s. After that, we picked up our mail in a small town. In 1970, that post office closed and we used a community mailbox which is still in service to this day. Miraculously, the sky didn’t fall.
The Canadian Union of Postal Workers went on strike Thursday after the government announced door-to-door mail delivery would end for nearly all households within the next decade.
Canada Post said the strike will mean mail and parcels will not be processed or delivered for the duration of the strike and no new items will be accepted.
Barista Blues
Here’s more evidence that the marginal consumer is finally saying no to $6 lattes.
The Seattle coffee giant will notify employees whose positions are being eliminated early Friday and said that it plans to close an undetermined number of stores in North America in the coming days.
A review of Starbucks locations revealed that many are falling short of financial performance targets or are failing to create the environment customers expect, according to a letter sent by Starbucks CEO Brian Niccol on Thursday.
It’s Probably Nothing
Melinda, via email – Something I now have on my radar, due to the high % of Toronto residents now on the dole.
Grocer Metro’s Toronto distribution centre has been shut down since Sep. 12 due to what the company calls a “refrigeration failure.” Stores remain stocked through contingency plan, no reopening date announced.
Is this really just about a “refrigeration failure”?#cybersecurity
— The Food Professor (@FoodProfessor) September 23, 2025
Going For Broke
When the mainstream financial media starts to use the terms “alarm” and “collapse” in the same sentence, it’s probably too late to do anything about it.
The report from University of Ottawa’s Missing Middle Initiative compares housing starts and sales in 34 municipalities across the Greater Toronto Area and neighbouring Southern Ontario cities for the first six months of 2025 with the same period from 2021–2024. It found starts are down 40 per cent relative to that four-year average, with pre-construction condo sales plunging 89 per cent and other homes 70 per cent.
Golden Era?
The mainstream financial media is looking at this the wrong way. It’s not gold that’s going up, but rather the dollar that is going down. For the most part, all the derivative currencies are doing even worse. The main reason is not imminent hyperinflation but rather fear of default as the fiat debt burden continues to rise exponentially.
Gold futures surged to around $3,750, while bullion for immediate delivery traded above $3,700 per ounce.
Luxury Items
The jump to 15% minimum suggested tips is probably playing a role, but even without that the restaurant industry is struggling with the pandemic hangover and a marginal consumer who cannot afford to eat out.
Three in four Canadians are eating out less, often because of the high cost of living, a Restaurants Canada report published Monday found. That share is even higher among those aged 18 to 34 at 81 per cent.
Restaurants Canada chief executive Kelly Higginson said it’s an “alarming” trend for the foodservice industry.
Repeat Offenders
It’s not like this incident happened in the core area of Winnipeg, but rather a quiet suburban neighborhood. Any bets on how long it will be until this guy is back on the street?
A 23-year-old man with a lengthy rap sheet is accused of barging into a northwest Winnipeg home Monday evening and randomly assaulting two elderly residents as they relaxed in their living room.
George has numerous prior convictions for possessing weapons and breaching court orders. He’s also been convicted of uttering threats, obstructing a police officer and assaulting an officer. George was barred from owning weapons for life after pleading guilty in August 2024 to several firearms possession offences he committed in November 2023.
Racing To Zero
Why is it that no one in the mainstream financial media ever asks, “Whatever happened to higher for longer?”
The Bank of Canada reduced its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points on Wednesday, a move observers had almost universally expected amid various signs of economic weakness.
The Bank cited the “weakening economy and less upside risk to inflation” in its decision to cut.
Gradually, Then Suddenly
Look at what Trudeau govt did to Canada. My God. And we re-elected the same govt. h/t @MichaelAArouet pic.twitter.com/4b3Vi4aNzt
— Martin Pelletier (@MPelletierCIO) September 17, 2025
Race to the bottom: WTF is happening in Germany?! Germany announced 125,000 industrial job cuts in 6 weeks.
Headed For A Bust?
Inquiring minds want to know: can the Bank of Canada cut interest rates quickly enough to avoid a collapse of the housing market?
Butler says clients who locked in around 1.7 per cent in 2020 and 2021 are now renewing closer to four per cent, pushing payments up 20 to 25 per cent.
Even if the BoC cuts this week, affordability challenges will persist. “You cannot solve something that has taken 20, 30 years to build up in five minutes,” Tal said.
Same As The Old Boss
The list of what the Liberals consider to be “infrastructure” projects continues to boggle the mind. The main criteria apparently is that they be money-losing boondoggles.
Some of the projects identified for further development include enhancements to the Port of Churchill in Manitoba, a high-speed rail line between Toronto and Québec City, a 50-gigawatt wind energy project in Nova Scotia and an Alberta-based carbon capture and storage project.
The R Word
So the mainstream financial media is finally waking up to what most of us on SDA acknowledged long ago.
The job market is exhibiting some other recessionary characteristics, too. Desjardins Economics, in a report last Thursday, said the current youth unemployment rate “is now at a level more commonly seen during a recession.”
The unemployment rate for those aged 15 to 24 in August was 14.5 per cent, according to Statistics Canada, compared to nine per cent in July 2022.
Elbows Way Down!
Is rising unemployment part of Canadian exceptionalism too? I’m sure this can all be fixed with zero percent interest rates in any case.
Canada’s labour market shed a net 65,500 jobs in August and the unemployment rate jumped to 7.1 per cent, according to Statistics Canada data released on Friday.
The unemployment rate is now at its highest point outside of the pandemic since May 2016, and has risen 0.5 percentage points since the start of this year.
Just Accept It!
We seem to be having more contractions than a woman in labor, but I’m sure all the buy Canadian campaigns will make up for it, right?
Canada’s manufacturing sector contracted in August, clocking seven monthly reductions in a row, as manufacturers grappled with low export demand due to U.S. tariffs, along with logistical and pricing pressures, data showed on Tuesday.
Elbows Down!
Canada’s economic decline is getting noticed south of the border. Too bad many Canadians don’t appear to care.