Tag: oil production

With oil prices at $94 a barrel, why is industry activity akin to when it was half of that?

In the last week I’ve spoke to some of the most knowledgeable people I know in the Saskatchewan oilpatch, business owners all, from Weyburn, Lloydminster and several from Estevan. There’s a rising chorus of dissatisfaction amongst them. Things should be booming in this province’s oilpatch, but they aren’t. And this disquiet could threaten the governing Saskatchewan Party with the potential loss of a key portion of its base.

Watch for a Part 2 to this tomorrow.

The impact of CO2-enhanced oil recovery is huge

It turns out that carbon dioxide-enhanced oil recovery is more significant than even I thought, and I’ve been writing about if for 15 years. It accounts for a huge number of the top 100 conventional oil wells in Saskatchewan. Huge. And it proves out the significance and importance of CO2-EOR. Imagine what we could do across Saskatchewan with access to a lot more CO2? That’s going to have to be a column, methinks. 

Also, oil is over US$90/barrel for the first time in quite a while. That’s going to be pretty important for Saskatchewan, as I was made aware today that potash prices have tanked. They are down by half year over year.

Explaining the “inside baseball” on Crescent Point

This yellow rig, originally Eagle Drilling Rig 1, was built in large part because of the activity Crescent Point was doing. It often worked for Crescent Point. Dozens of people made a lot of money over the years off of this one rig alone. Photo by Brian Zinchuk

One commenter wondered what the post about Crescent Point yesterday was all about, and seeing by the lack of comments, he was right to suggest it might be a bit of “inside baseball.” So let me lay out some context for the average Saskatchewan resident:

  • The “Bakken Boom” of 2008-2014, which included over a billion dollars of land sales in 2008, was largely driven by Crescent Point. Most of that billion dollars in land sales that year, the year Saskatchewan paid off a huge chunk of debt, was directly from Crescent Point. Remember when the provincial government had that huge surplus in 2008? Crescent Point was a huge factor in that.
  • Their prodigious activity drove thousands of high paying jobs in Estevan, Weyburn, Carlyle, Carnduff, Midale, Stoughton, Torquay, Lampman, Benson, Arcola, Redvers, Gainsborough, Oungre and more, literally spending billions per year, mostly with oilfield service companies, who in turn paid wages. See, in Saskatchewan, the oilpatch isn’t really about the oil companies, but the hundreds of oilfield services companies who employ thousands of people that work for those oil companies. And those people then bought trucks, quads, boats, RVs, houses, Riders tickets, restaurant meals and more.
  • Millions of people across Canada, through mutual funds or direct stock ownership, or pension plans or other institutional investors, made billions off Crescent Point.
  • At one point, Crescent Point accounted for roughly one out of every four barrels of oil produced in Saskatchewan. And at that time, oil royalties were paying up to 20 per cent of the provincial budget’s revenues, while health care was consuming about 39 per cent of the budget’s expenses. That meant that oil was paying for roughly every single doctor, nurse, hospital, old folks home, Xray, MRI and more south of Lumsden – including Regina – and Crescent Point was paying for roughly one quarter of that.
  • On health care – it was Crescent Point that got the ball over the line in leading the fundraising to get STARS air ambulance finally going in Saskatchewan. While Potash Corp eventually donated more money, Crescent Point was the leader in that endeavor. If they hadn’t done that, it might have been several more years before getting a helicopter air ambulance here. If we had STARS in 1997 when my grandfather had a stroke, maybe he wouldn’t have turned into a vegetable and died a slow death. STARS responded the night my sister died. It matters.
  • Before they started selling off land in 2018, Crescent Point controlled huge swaths of land across southeast and southwest Saskatchewan. Over the course of something like 30 acquisitions, almost every one of those made the sellers rich, and those sellers often went on and reinvested a large portion of that money back into Saskatchewan.
  • They were really hard on oilfield service providers to cut costs when the 7-year downturn hit around Christmas of 2014. But when nearly all other oil companies pulled their horns in and stopped spending money, Crescent Point did not. They kept going, even if they were paying less. That kept a huge portion of the industry afloat for several years, even if begrudgingly. For several of those years, Crescent Point employed more drilling rigs in Canada then the No. 2 and No. 3 oil companies combined. They may have been lean times, but lean was better than starvation, which is what most of the rest of the oil business was doing. In February, 2018, Crescent Point employed 29 drilling rigs, 27 of which were in Saskatchewan. They kept the industry afloat when no one else was.
  • Despite being based in Calgary, Crescent Point, along with Husky, were our oil industry corporate champions – Crescent Point for a decade, Husky for decades.
  • And now, Crescent Point’s activity and involvement in Saskatchewan is a shadow of its former self. While Whitecap Resources has in a small way picked up where Crescent Point left off, at this point it’s nowhere close. And as a result, all those towns listed above, and the province as a whole, are feeling the difference.
  • You may not realize it, but without Crescent Point from 2008-2018, almost everyone in Saskatchewan, and Saskatchewan itself, would have been poorer as a result.

I hope that explains it a bit more.

Crescent Point is spending 70% of its CAPEX in Alberta. Not that long ago, it was more like 80+% in Saskatchewan

I’ve been saying for a long time now, Crescent Point has been increasingly losing interest in Saskatchewan. Monday’s CAPEX budget solidifies that, as they’re spending 70 per cent of a billion dollar budget in Alberta. They used to easily spend a billion in Saskatchewan per year, and often a lot more. So anyone who relies on Crescent Point should take note, including the province of Saskatchewan.

As recently has February, 2018, Crescent Point had 27 rigs drilling in Saskatchewan. Today that number is 4.

If you want to know why things are slower in Saskatchewan, even with higher oil prices, here’s your first clue.

Crown corporation Trans Mountain wants a blank cheque from shippers for pipeline cost overruns

Cenovus calls Trans Mountain’s desire for a blank cheque on cost overruns “commercially absurd” It turns out when you run a project something like 4 to 6 times the original budget (depending on what you consider the start and the original budget) the people expected to pay for it might balk a bit. In the letter quoted in the story, Cenovus basically tells Trans Mountain to, well, you figure it out.

9 times in 3 weeks: how many times Texans have been warned the lights might go out

Supper in Texas on Wednesday: for the 9th time in 3 weeks, the lights are in danger of going out due to high temperatures and low wind power generation.

Well, that’s what I initially wrote. Then the Texas grid literally went into “red alert,” as the frequency started to drop and reserves fell perilously low. If the frequency goes too low, generating plants would start to trip off in cascading failures, leading to massive blackouts. Thankfully, they got it under control.

Also: Pipeline Online editor Brian Zinchuk on John Gormley Live talking about oil prices, drilling activity, carbon capture, grid alerts, and dramatically more nuclear power generation possible in Saskatchewan.

And if you missed it, Enbridge snapped up three natural gas utilities in the US. Funny how they’re spending big money in the US, but not Canada…

 

SaskPower and Whitecap strike deal on CO2 sale and purchase

Good news for Weyburn Unit, Whitecap, SaskPower, Weyburn and Estevan:

Whitecap Resources to buy CO2 from SaskPower until 2035, providing market for SaskPower’s BD3.

I did some in-depth analysis on the broader picture on all this, especially how carbon pricing in the US and Canada affect the economics.

Remember, the CO2 is used for enhanced oil recovery, dramatically extending the life of an oilfield that has now been producing over 65 years. And FYI, my kid found work with a oilfield company that’s worked in the Weyburn Unit for 62 years, give or take. I hope she can make a career there as a heavy duty mechanic.

A while ago I pointed out on Gormley that lower oil prices were definitely going to have an impact on Saskatchewan’s finances. I was right, as finances are down a half billion from budget.

Also, the feds just dished out $30 million for 1500 EV chargers in Quebec. Because of course they did.

So let’s see here, the federal government, with our tax dollars, have dished out money for EV manufacturers, battery plants, rebates on the EVs themselves, and now chargers. Is there anything they’ve missed? Maybe you get a car! And you get a car! Might have to do a column on this.

And, on the topic of the feds, after slow walking its construction for years, all of a sudden there’s a serious panic to get the Trans Mountain Pipeline complete and operating. Well, from what I understand, good luck with that.

Saskatchewan could be going nuclear in a big way

First, Saskatchewan was considering four small modular reactors. Then the SaskPower minister said maybe as many as nine. Now Premier Scott Moe is floating the idea of large scale, 1000 megawatt reactors.

And the province just coughed up some money to help develop a domestic nuclear supply chain within Saskatchewan.

Also, Crescent Point Energy grew up in the Bakken, and at one point was briefly Saskatchewan’s largest oil producer. Well, they just sold all their North Dakota Bakken assets. Anyone want to start a pool as to when they will sell off remaining assets in Saskatchewan?

TC Energy is dumping Keystone Pipeline in spinoff

Keystone XL pipe, in 2011, that was never used. Photo by Brian Zinchuk

 

TC Energy, which I still think of as TranCanada, from back when I built pipelines for them, is spinning off its oil pipelines, which is principally the Keystone system.

I was searching for the best metaphor. “Like hot garbage,” kept coming to mind. I settled on dumping an ex-wife. My column on this: TC Energy dumping Keystone Pipeline like a despised, soon-to-be-ex-wife. The Keystone name is so verboten, it is barely mentioned in the press release or slide deck.

This is entirely because the anti-pipeline, anti-oil movement won on Keystone XL and Energy East. Can’tada and BANANAS USA won, and this is the result. (Build Absolutely Nothing Anywhere Near Anyone, Seriously, U Stup1d A@#$#@#)

How about more carbon capture?

That’s a whole lot of PhD students at Boundary Dam. Photo by Brian Zinchuk

Open letter: CCS is needed and ready to address climate change. This is from the Regina-based International CCS Knowledge Centre.

In response to some of the comments yesterday – carbon capture, as practiced in Saskatchewan, actually has a substantial benefit besides whatever climate issues one might be concerned about. The Weyburn Unit, one of the largest and most prolific oil plays in this country, has been in operation for 65 years. If it had no CO2 injection, it would probably be producing around 6,000 barrels per day. It’s currently doing around 24,000 as a direct result of CO2-enhanced oil recovery. That’s a gain of around 18,000 bpd. At $75/bbl., that’s about $1.3 million per day in gross revenue. It means hundreds of jobs in Weyburn, including my daughter, who started working as a heavy duty mechanic apprentice for an oilfield service company which has been working in the Unit for 62 years. If the CO2 continues to flow, that oilfield is expected to continue on likely for her entire career, if she stays there.

This can be applied on a much broader scale, dramatically extending the life of any oilfield it is applied to. CO2 increases recovery factors from around 20% to 40%+.

Just pumping CO2 into the ground – that’s another story.

There are two paths: one “accepts the scientific reality of climate change,” the other “is blind hope”

Jonathan Wilkinson. Photo by Brian Zinchuk

Here are the big pieces on Jonathan Wilkinson’s time in Saskatchewan last week. The Minister of Natural Resources came to Regina to speak about “just transition.” There’s still a few more to come from it for the rest of this week, including his faith that there will soon be electric tractors for our farmers (where will you charge them???)

Shorter version (if you can call it that)

Wilkinson says there are two paths: one “accepts the scientific reality of climate change,” the other is blind hope.

Long version:

Wilkinson’s full speech on “just transition,” verbatim.

Video of whole speech included with both.

The “just transition” report is nothing short of the utter transformation of Canada

Entitled “Creating a Fair and Equitable Energy Transformation,” The 56 page report outlines nothing short of the utter transformation of Canada, its economy and workforce, by way of transitioning away from fossil fuels to a largely electric economy, with the possibility of hydrogen usage as well. In doing so it means to largely do away with the fossil fuel industry which is one of Canada’s largest industries and contributors to GDP, exports and wealth. The report provides recommendations as to what to do with the people involved in that industry, but not so much the companies who employ them, create those jobs or that wealth.

On Thursday, I’ll have the detailed Conservative response from MP Shannon Stubbs.

Passing of a Southeast Saskatchewan oilfield legend

A few years ago the Weyburn Oil Show Board created a new honour called Southeast Saskatchewan Legends. There are a number of people who, over several decades, were key players in building the Saskatchewan oil industry. Many of them started and operated not one, but several oilfield service companies, and coincidentally, almost every single one of them farmed on the side. You could call them “serial entrepreneurs.”

Ron Wanner of Estevan was one of the first to be honored as a “Legend,” back in 2017. He started wheeling and dealing surplus oilfield equipment, and ended up having a trucking company, an oil company, a drilling rig and a service rig company. He passed away a few days ago. He also had a policy of buying long-term employees their own vehicle after a certain number of years. I remember around 2010 he bought a Hemi Challenger SRT/8 for the engineer who successfully built his oil company from nothing. This is his obituary, as published in Pipeline Online. They don’t make many like Ron Wanner anymore.

Cenovus CEO: Without cheap, abundant, affordable energy, life is brutal. Life is short

The new CEO of Cenovus, Canada’s second largest oil producer and Saskatchewan’s largest (after they bought Husky during the COVID pandemic), tells it like it is. There’s a healthy dose of reality in his comments, but Cenovus is also leading the charge for carbon capture in the oilsands. He also likes the idea of nuclear reactors usage in the oilsands.

Trudeau says we shouldn’t burn oil, but process it. And build lots of nuclear

Trudeau speaks of supplying natural gas to #Germany, despite his government killing Energie Saguenay. And he wants to build lots of #nuclear, too. And he wants carbon capture, but his government won’t allow enhanced oil recovery incentives. We shouldn’t burn oil, but process it. 
And he said all this in front of the German president, months after he told the German chancellor there was “no business case” for LNG.

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