That’s Her Husband’s Job

The Captain believes the Republicans will win the presidency in ’08;

He may be onto something. But wait! Get a load of this;

“I want a long term relationship,” she said. “I don’t want to just have a[1] one night stand[2] with all of you.”

That’ll wow ’em in Iowa.
Footnotes:
[1] It depends on what the definition of ‘a’ is.
[2] Sorry about the visual.
Update – “When Did Scott Ott Become Hillary Clinton’s Campaign Manager?”

The Sound Of Settled Science

Exerpts: Memorandum by Professor Paul Reiter, Institut Pasteur. “specialist in the natural history and biology of mosquitoes, the epidemiology of the diseases they transmit, and strategies for their control. “

I wonder how many of your Lordships are aware of the historical significance of the Palace of Westminster? I refer to the history of malaria, not the evolution of government. Are you aware that the entire area now occupied by the Houses of Parliament was once a notoriously malarious swamp? And that until the beginning of the 20th century, “ague” (the original English word for malaria) was a cause of high morbidity and mortality in parts of the British Isles, particularly in tidal marshes such as those at Westminster? And that George Washington followed British Parliamentary precedent by also siting his government buildings in a malarious swamp! I mention this to dispel any misconception you may have that malaria is a “tropical” disease. […] In fact, the most catastrophic epidemic on record anywhere in the world occurred in the Soviet Union in the 1920s, with a peak incidence of 13 million cases per year, and 600,000 deaths. Transmission was high in many parts of Siberia, and there were 30,000 cases and 10,000 deaths due to falciparum infection (the most deadly malaria parasite) in Archangel, close to the Arctic circle.

Re: IPCC Second Assessment Report, Chapter 18, Human population health;

12. The scientific literature on mosquito-borne diseases is voluminous, yet the text references in the chapter were restricted to a handful of articles, many of them relatively obscure, and nearly all suggesting an increase in prevalence of disease in a warmer climate. The paucity of information was hardly surprising: not one of the lead authors had ever written a research paper on the subject! Moreover, two of the authors, both physicians, had spent their entire career as environmental activists. One of these activists has published “professional” articles as an “expert” on 32 different subjects, ranging from mercury poisoning to land mines, globalization to allergies and West Nile virus to AIDS.
13. Among the contributing authors there was one professional entomologist, and a person who had written an obscure article on dengue and El Niño, but whose principal interest was the effectiveness of motor cycle crash helmets (plus one paper on the health effects of cell phones).

Re: The IPCC Third Assessment Report;

24. The third assessment report listed more than 65 lead authors, only one of which—a colleague of mine—was an established authority on vector-borne disease. I was invited to serve a contributory author on the health chapter
25. My colleague and I repeatedly found ourselves at loggerheads with persons who insisted on making authoritative pronouncements, although they had little or no knowledge of our speciality. At the time, we were experiencing similar frustration as Lead Authors of Health Section of the US National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change (US Global Change Research Program). After much effort and many fruitless discussions, I decided to concentrate on the USGCCRP and resigned from the IPCC project. My resignation was accepted, but in a first draft I found that my name was still listed. I requested its removal, but was told it would remain because “I had contributed”. It was only after strong insistence that I succeeded in having it removed.

IPCC Fourth Assessment Report;

31. It will be interesting to see how the health chapter of the fourth report is written. Only one of the lead authors has ever been a lead author, and neither has ever published on mosquito-borne disease. Only one of the contributing authors has an extensive bibliography in the field of human health. He is a specialist in industrial health, and all his publications are in Russian. Several of the others have never published any articles at all.
[…]
33. When I contacted IPCC personnel (at the Meteorological Office in Exeter) to see whether my nomination had been accepted, I initially received the message: “The IPCC received over 2000 government nominations during this process and most, such as yours, were of a very high standard. Unfortunately the IPCC Working Group Two Bureau did not pick you to be an author, although all nominations were scrutinised and assessed”.
34. I replied with a question about the two Lead Authors that had been selected:“It is often stated that the IPCC represents the worlds top scientists. I copy to you the bibliographies of (the two lead authors), as downloaded from MEDLINE. You will observe that (the first) has never written a single article, and (the second) has only authored five articles. Can these two really be considered “Lead authors” with experience, representative of the world’s top scientists and specialists in human health?”
35. I also pointed out that one Lead Author is a “hygienist”, the other is a specialist in fossil faeces, and both have been co-authors on publications by environmental activists.

Written in 2005, this is a “read the whole thing” item.
Flashback: Hurricane expert Chris Landsea withdraws from IPCC, citing misrepresentation of the research.

Y2Kyoto: Not Dead Enough

Greenpeace is displeased;

Average annual deaths from weather-related events in the period 1990-2006 – considered by scientists to be when global warming has been most intense – were down by 87% on the 1900-89 average. The mortality rate from catastrophes, measured in deaths per million people, dropped by 93%.
The report by the Civil Society Coalition on Climate Change, a grouping of 41 mainly free-market bodies, comes on the eve of an international meeting on climate change in Bali.
Indur Goklany, a US-based expert on weather-related catastrophes, charted global deaths through the 20th century from “extreme” weather events.
Compared with the peak rate of deaths from weather-related events in the 1920s of nearly 500,000 a year, the death toll during the period 2000-06 averaged 19,900. “The United Nations has got the issues and their relative importance backward,” Goklany said.
The number of deaths had fallen sharply because of better warning systems, improved flood defences and other measures.

Based on the -29C windchill here tonight, I’d include central heating among them.

A Step Back From The Abyss?

Keep your fingers crossed. Caracas Chronicles;

Quico says: Multiple sources inside CNE now confirm it. Chávez’s constitutional reform proposal has been defeated at the polls. An official announcement is imminent.

Live blogged at Venezuela News and Views, plus extensive coverage at the Miami Herald.
Update: Chavez has conceded;

The changes would have created new forms of communal property, let Chavez handpick local leaders under a redrawn political map, permit civil liberties to be suspended under extended states of emergency and allow Chavez to seek re-election indefinitely. Now, Chavez will be barred from running again in 2012.
Other changes would have shortened the workday from eight hours to six, created a social security fund for millions of informal laborers and promoted communal councils where residents decide how to spend government funds. The reforms also would have granted Chavez control over the Central Bank and extended presidential terms from six to seven years.

Your Constitutional Rights

Depreciate with age;

The provincial gun regulator will begin inspecting the homes of older gun owners in Toronto to ensure they are storing their firearms safely, an initiative one sporting association said amounts to “harassing” seniors.
Ontario’s Chief Firearms Office says it is responding to concerns raised by Toronto police, which have in the past been called to the homes of gun owners who had either died or been hospitalized and did not have their registered firearms securely stored. In some cases, the guns were found lying around. Authorities worry they could get into the wrong hands.
[…]
“For the drug gangs they have to get a warrant before they go into their houses, and yet the Firearms Act allows them to come into our house when we’ve never committed a crime in our life. In fact if we did, we wouldn’t have a firearms licence,” said Larry Whitmore, executive director of CSSA.
The organization has advised its members to refuse entry, and also outlined exactly what the Firearms Act allows inspectors to do.
He said members have experienced a “creative interpretation” of storage regulations, and he worries inspections will turn into a “fishing expedition to lay charges against a very vulnerable part of our population.”

We told you so.
(Ed note – This is probably covered under the same constitutional amendment that permits Saskatoon by-laws officers to enter private homes without a warrant – to search for unlicensed dogs.)

Ooops

Nov 5;

China’s biggest company, the state-owned oil giant PetroChina, has become the largest in the world and the first to exceed $1trillion (£500bn) in value after its shares almost trebled on their first day of trading in Shanghai.
The milestone, which saw PetroChina surpass Exxon Mobil, the US oil company, adds another notch to the belt of corporate China as it flexes its muscles on the global stage.

Dec. 1;

The newly floated oil giant PetroChina has lost a third of a trillion dollars in nominal value in just three weeks, plummeting to a fresh low yesterday as angst gripped the Shanghai stock market.
The benchmark CSI 300 index of Chinese stocks has dropped 18pc in November, the worst one-month fall in more than a decade. The bourse has tumbled 22pc since peaking in mid-October after a wild speculative boom that saw prices triple in a year – much like the final phase of Japan’s Nikkei frenzy in 1989. It now qualifies as an official “bear market”.
[…]
But US investor Warren Buffett earlier cashed in his minority holding for a 600pc gain of $3.5bn (£1.7bn), warning that the Shanghai boom had become unstable. The Shanghai market still remains expensive with an average price to earnings ratio of 55.

The Baghdad Fictionalist, Updated

In a 10 page mea culpa The New Republic finally cuts Scott Beauchamp loose;

When I last spoke with Beauchamp in early November, he continued to stand by his stories. Unfortunately, the standards of this magazine require more than that. And, in light of the evidence available to us, after months of intensive re-reporting, we cannot be confident that the events in his pieces occurred in exactly the manner that he described them. Without that essential confidence, we cannot stand by these stories.

How could this happen?

“…we were reluctant to call Army public affairs to review his claims.”

Oh. I guess it happened the way it usually happens.
Lots of link rich goodness at Michelle Malkin’s– “In an act of grace, the magazine has thanked its critics and apologized to the military. …. No, just kidding about the thanking and apologizing part.”
Previous – TNR’s Canadian connection.
Update: TNR vs NRO – a contrast.

Y2Kyoto: Harper Fiddles While Plummeting Babies Burn

From the Goracle’s lips…

“The planet has a fever, If your baby has a fever, you go to the doctor. If the doctor says you need to intervene here, you don’t say, `Well, I read a science fiction novel that told me it’s not a problem.’ If the crib’s on fire, you don’t speculate that the baby is flame retardant. You take action.” – Nobel Peace Prize Winner Al Gore

To the Chilliwack Progress ear;

It was with embarrassment and sadness that I watched the recent Commonwealth Summit, to see Canada standing alone as the only member unwilling to agree to binding targets in the curbing of climate change and its dire consequences for our children and, for many of us, our old age. Furthermore, our P.M. promotes “aspirational targets”, concocted by the Bush government, further tarnishing the Canadian image rather than becoming a global example.
Imagine our prime minister on a tall building and passively watching a young baby crawling towards the edge. When criticized the P.M. says, ‘Well, the laws of physics say that crawling off the edge will not certainly lead to the death of this baby’. However, the science community says it is almost certain. Would Canadians find his action acceptable? No, and they would be justifiably horrified, probably demanding legal action against him.
Turning this scenario to global warming, the P.M. has decided not to implement a ‘baby-saving’ tax shift away from wages and towards carbon-emission. Logically, this is equivalent to losing all of Canada’s newborns off a tall building. With the subsidies doled out to the oil lobby, it could be suggested that Mr. Harper is giving them a little surreptitious kick as well. Scientists now say there is little uncertainty with their understanding of climate change.
So why would we want to prosecute the P.M. for allowing the death of one infant, when many are unmoved with him allowing the suffering/death of them all?
The difference here is that in the case of the building, we have all seen things fall, so are familiar with the Law of Gravity. Carbon dioxide, however, is odourless, tasteless and invisible, so we have to rely on the knowledge of experts. Do we have a tradition in Canada of believing politicians over our scientists as these experts?
In university, I discovered the comforting fact that scientists question; they question the work of their peers relentlessly and mercilessly. They must be able to unequivocally show that their work is sound and reproducible. Results obtained under these circumstances are accepted by the scientific community, whether they like them or not. This is the closest the human mind comes to objectivity.
The babies are plummeting. There is just time to catch them (with a tax shift to carbon). As a nation, I’d like to see us either save this generation, or at least stop pretending we care about them.

(I’ll refrain from commenting on this, as the writer is university educated and I’m not.)

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