COVID-19 has cracked open the vulnerabilities in Canada’s beef supply chains, exposing some disturbing realities about the challenges faced by this workforce so important to the success of Canada’s beef sector.

Related.

Yet currently, deaths in the US are dropping: Scott Gottlieb MD: New projections from CDC in documents obtained by New York Times shows steady rise in number of cases and deaths from #covid19 over next several weeks, reaching about 3,000 daily deaths on June 1st and about 200,000 new cases each day by end of the month. (pdf)

Update: The study above “obtained by the New York Times”? The researcher who developed a model predicting a steep surge in the country’s coronavirus cases and deaths has said that he was not aware that his work, which “was not in any way intended to be a forecast,” had been drafted into a government report. OH.

Click to enlarge.

Just leaving the ER.

For the first time in nearly two months, the number of non-COVID19 patients outnumbered the number of #COVIDー19 patients I saw today.

Certainly better.

But definitely not over.

— Craig Spencer MD MPH (@Craig_A_Spencer) May 4, 2020

Meanwhile, in a Texas seniors home: Armstrong doesn’t call the Hydroxychloroquine a cure and is aware of all the recent reports that say the drug shouldn’t be used to treat COVID-19. But he points out only one of the nursing homes COVID-19 patients has died…

Thread is open for related links.

1/ 2147 close contacts of 157 #COVID19 cases were followed up: Overall infection rate was 6%, higher infection rate among friends (22%) and household (18%), and main risk factors include contact in household (13%), transport (11%), dining (7%). https://t.co/QBSZVSjylU (4/3/20) pic.twitter.com/sh6hH0WjTw

— Dr Muge Cevik (@mugecevik) May 4, 2020

Finally, some solid data on transmission risks. It’s mostly good news, meaning that mitigation can be more accurately targeted. It largely explains the infection clusters — high density populations, nursing homes, plant workers living in close quarters. Read the full thread.

On reopening — “Everybody has a plan until you get punched in the mouth.”

h/t Ron

For May 4th, 101 days since Canada’s first diagnosed case and we record the biggest yet one day jump (+2,760) in new cases.

@DrZoeHyde (add her to your follows)

Latest #COVID19 forecast from team at Imperial. Epidemic likely declining in 4 countries (inc. France, Italy, & Spain), stabilising or growing slowly in 23 (inc. Germany, Netherlands, UK, & USA), and growing in 9 (inc. Brazil, Canada, India, & Russia).

Dr Matt Strauss : The underground doctors’ movement questioning the use of ventilators

With our modern insistence on evidence-based medicine, we would never significantly invest in medical infrastructure that has not been proven beneficial by a randomised control trial. Except of course we have, and we continue to do so. No area of medicine is immune to these lapses. But it is my own specialty of life-support medicine where this has recently been thrown into the sharpest relief.

 

As I previously reported in the Spectator, there has never been a randomised control trial to show that sedating people with severe pneumonia in order to put a breathing tube down their throat (the process known as intubation), in order to hook them up to a mechanical ventilator is lifesaving at any particular point in their illness. Neither has there been such a trial in chimps, dogs, sheep or rats. Yet it is a firmly entrenched belief that intubation and ventilation are necessary once a patient requires a high level of supplemental oxygen. Or it was.

THE US SECRETARY OF STATE IS ALWAYS THE LAST TO KNOW: ‘Enormous evidence’ connects coronavirus outbreak to Wuhan lab

University of Texas under investigation for possible ties to Wuhan biolab: Suspicions arose that UT neglected to report all gifts and exchanges between itself and the Chinese state-owned institutions. 

Belgium is a hot zone for COVID-19 and nobody knows why.

Your related news and morning developments can be shared in the comments.

Update: Related

A worthwhile read from Michael Yon, on how the famously combative Thais approach different challenges with different societal solutions.

“The disease itself appears to be shape-shifting before our eyes.”

We are now almost six months into this pandemic, which began in November in Wuhan, with 50,000 Americans dead and 200,000 more around the world. If each of those deaths is a data point, together they represent a quite large body of evidence from which to form a clear picture of the pandemic threat. Early in the epidemic, the coronavirus was seen as a variant of a familiar family of disease, not a mysterious ailment, however infectious and concerning. But while uncertainties at the population level confuse and frustrate public-health officials, unsure when and in what form to shift gears out of lockdowns, the disease has proved just as mercurial at the clinical level, with doctors revising their understanding of COVID-19’s basic pattern and weaponry — indeed often revising that understanding in different directions at once. The clinical shape of the disease, long presumed to be a relatively predictable respiratory infection, is getting less clear by the week. Lately, it seems, by the day. As Carl Zimmer, probably the country’s most respected science journalist, asked virologists in a tweet last week, “is there any other virus out there that is this weird in terms of its range of symptoms?” […]
 
In a fantastic survey published April 17 (“How does coronavirus kill? Clinicians trace a ferocious rampage through the body, from brain to toes,” by Meredith Wadman, Jennifer Couzin-Frankel, Jocelyn Kaiser, and Catherine Matacic), Science magazine took a thorough, detailed tour of the ever-evolving state of understanding of the disease. “Despite the more than 1,000 papers now spilling into journals and onto preprint servers every week,” Science concluded, “a clear picture is elusive, as the virus acts like no pathogen humanity has ever seen.”

“Doctors at New York City's Mount Sinai Hospital say a growing number of recovered COVID patients are developing heart disease, lung disease, blood clots and kidney problems. All issues they did not have before.” https://t.co/cMloxZsoEi

— fred walton (@fredwalton216) May 1, 2020

The blood clot issue — “The virus is acting as if its primary target is the endothelium”

Watch This Before It’s Removed by YouTube:

#FollowTheMoney

A morning sampling.

This is insane: In a memo this week, Dean Lett, director of long-term care for the city [of Ottawa], asked families to stop visiting their loved ones at windows “to help ensure that physical distancing remains in place for all our residents.”

Practicing communist De Blasio’s stubborn refusal to take the coronavirus seriously may have caused thousands of deaths.

Ask him about Taiwan: The WHO refuses to clear WHO official Dr. Bruce Aylward to speak at the Parliamentary Health Committee. The committee may take the unusual step of issuing a summons, which would force Aylward to testify.

At Instapundit:

Patterns of COVID-19 Mortality and Vitamin D: An Indonesian Study. A Facebook friend’s succinct summary of the findings in this study: “Just under half (49.7%) of cases had normal vitamin D status, and only 4% of them died. Just over a quarter (27%) had insufficient vitamin D status, and most of them (88%) died. Just under a quarter (23%) had deficient vitamin D status, and almost all of them (99%) died.”
 
The study calls anything over 30 ng/ml as normal Vitamin D; my doctor prefers in the neighborhood of 60. No guarantee from these data, though, that more is better, but I wouldn’t be surprised if that were the case. On the other hand, you’d expect lower death rates in Italy and Spain than Germany, then, wouldn’t you? Or are that many Germans going on winter holidays in the Greek islands?

Cardiac risks are not getting nearly enough attention: Retrospective study of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest in Lombardy, Italy, during first 40 days of #COVID19 outbreak. There was a 58% increase compared with same period in previous year. Of the extra cases, 77.4% suspected or confirmed to have Covid-19.

Hydroxychloroquine by the state: Cases vs Recoveries

Please let this be true: Tests in recovered patients in S. Korea found false positives, not reinfections

Your related links in the comments. Off topic will be deleted.

China's puppet, the WHO, "accidentally" published negative (and presumably untrue) data about remdesivir while China was actively stealing Gilead's IP by trying to patent it in China. #DecouplefromChina https://t.co/93fNfc1tU7

— Scott Adams (@ScottAdamsSays) April 29, 2020

Update: It seems the @WHO is doing its part to combat Fake News by removing its own January press conferences from YouTube so @YouTube wouldn’t have to.

Your morning grab bag.

This earns a gold star: NYC mayor Bill De Blasio to start rounding up Jews

Is hydroxychloroquine helping in New Brunswick? Maybe. It didn’t prevent serious disease in a small study of Lupus patients. So, results remain mixed.

Trump signs an executive order on Tuesday invoking the Defense Production Act to keep meat processing plants open, a senior White House official told CBS News. Plants owned by some of the country’s largest food companies have struggled with outbreaks of the coronavirus among workers and a growing death toll.

Consumer activity has yet to return in China, despite an economic re-opening.

Nothing to hide: Australia will continue campaigning for an inquiry into the origins of the coronavirus outbreak despite a furious reaction from Beijing

Alex Baldwin gives his Stamp Of Approval: Wash. State Came One Vote Away From Releasing Green River Serial Killer So He Wouldn’t Get Wuhan Virus

Better news;

A new antibody test to check whether someone has been infected with coronavirus which claims to be 99 per cent accurate has been certified for use across Europe. Global diagnostics specialists Abbott, which has a UK base in Maidenhead, has said it is expecting to have shipped millions of the laboratory based lab tests across Europe by the end of May.

…accumulating data on Remdesivir suggests it’s active against covid and there’s now enough data to support consideration of access under an emergency use authorization by FDA. The data from NIAID study should push this firmly over the line.

Your related links in the comments.