Wuhan Flu

Wuhan Flu 39 Comments

For May 4th, 101 days since Canada’s first diagnosed case and we record the biggest yet one day jump (+2,760) in new cases.

 

@DrZoeHyde (add her to your follows)

Latest #COVID19 forecast from team at Imperial. Epidemic likely declining in 4 countries (inc. France, Italy, & Spain), stabilising or growing slowly in 23 (inc. Germany, Netherlands, UK, & USA), and growing in 9 (inc. Brazil, Canada, India, & Russia).

 

 

Dr Matt Strauss : The underground doctors’ movement questioning the use of ventilators

With our modern insistence on evidence-based medicine, we would never significantly invest in medical infrastructure that has not been proven beneficial by a randomised control trial. Except of course we have, and we continue to do so. No area of medicine is immune to these lapses. But it is my own specialty of life-support medicine where this has recently been thrown into the sharpest relief.

 

As I previously reported in the Spectator, there has never been a randomised control trial to show that sedating people with severe pneumonia in order to put a breathing tube down their throat (the process known as intubation), in order to hook them up to a mechanical ventilator is lifesaving at any particular point in their illness. Neither has there been such a trial in chimps, dogs, sheep or rats. Yet it is a firmly entrenched belief that intubation and ventilation are necessary once a patient requires a high level of supplemental oxygen. Or it was.

THE US SECRETARY OF STATE IS ALWAYS THE LAST TO KNOW: ‘Enormous evidence’ connects coronavirus outbreak to Wuhan lab

University of Texas under investigation for possible ties to Wuhan biolab: Suspicions arose that UT neglected to report all gifts and exchanges between itself and the Chinese state-owned institutions. 

Belgium is a hot zone for COVID-19 and nobody knows why.

Your related news and morning developments can be shared in the comments.

 

39 Replies to “Wuhan Flu”

  1. Now overlay a timeline of testing on that…
    We’re testing in earnest now, sending teams from the hospitals and Public Health out to retirement homes, long term care, shelters, etc… as of this morning, results are taking 17 days…

  2. The Hong Kong flu cases were over in a week in an individual person, this disease takes three weeks to a month to play out for people hit hard by it, and a couple weeks for mild to no symptoms when a person is spreading it and likely has no idea he or she has it. How do you develop “herd immunity” when half the people catching it turn into Typhoid Mary types seeking out the weakest links in the population?

    The big problem seems to be that it plays out too slowly for people to handle psychologically so when it doesn’t follow forecasts immediately, people think they have been lied to. At least smallpox or the plague got it over with.

    Plus its impossible to calculate the impact of countermeasures accurately, you can only guess and then measure as the controls are in place, and that takes weeks because of the pace of infection to death and the problems with accurately testing the whole population, which make political polling look like child’s play.

  3. This just in, because the government is testing more people, they’re finding more people have the virus.
    Film at 11.

    In other news, Conservatives are still the problem and once they’ve all been disarmed, the government plans to take action against this dangerous group.
    No government official was available for comment.

    1. So that’s the increase in deaths? Or is it a worldwide conspiracy to pretend that there is a serious pandemic? I am genuinely curious how this works.

  4. The Belgium video is of what is coming to Canada after the gun ban succeeds.

    Do not let it happen.

    You will regret it when your 12 YO granddaughters or nieces will be raped.
    You will regret it when your neighborhood will turn into a no-go zone for the whites.
    You will regret it when the nearest church will convert into a mosque and install loudspeakers to blast 5 times a day prayers at 100 megawatts.
    You will regret it but it will be too late.
    You have been silent and complacent for 100 years. Enough is enough.

    I have been fighting it for 20 years. I have spent a fortune on donations and postal supplies. I have spent tons of printer toner. I have spent man-years on the phone. I cannot do it alone. Somebody get off your butt and do something, finally!

  5. The daily world wide death watch continues, so far 247,531 as of this am. Unfortunately 306,848 died in the last two days, averaging out the annual world wide death toll.

    1. You could use that same justification to kill your neighbor to take his stuff.

      1. tim, I think you have lost your tiny mind. Who the hell is doing anything except informing you of specific numbers? You want to hide, hide, no one is stopping you or anyone else.

        1. The “tiny mind” jibe is pretty funny coming from you. Why would you make that comment if you weren’t trying to make some kind of point that the deaths are irrelevant in the grand scheme of things. If that wasn’t your point, I am happy to hear from you.

          1. You need to expand your horizons and the information you take in.

    1. Thanks for adding that, I was going to post a link to a CTV story, same idea. Quebec’s case increase announced Sunday was 892 plus 1327 cases that were “missing” from the Montreal, Laval and the Monteregie regions due to some computer error.

  7. Yes, the US president and the government knew and know. They have the spy system and they know.
    Now wait the massive offensive of “racism” in all pronouncements to be heaped on the head of Pompeo and Trump by the propaganda foreign and domestic, after reading the paragraph beginning with:
    “Martha, there’s enormous evidence that that’s where this began. We’ve said from the beginning that this was a virus that originated in Wuhan, China” …..

    It appears that the U of T are full of useful idiots. While probably well meaning, dealing with communists is never a straight line. Dealing with them is always one sided in favor of communists, no exceptions.

    Looks like the crowds of cultural enrichers in Brussels are feeling just like being at home in the shitholes where they came from.

  8. The number of active cases outside of Quebec is dropping every day. Quebec is the problem. Noticeable trend change after Easter. I doubt that is a coincidence. The French always think the rules dont apply to them.

    They currently have 70% of Canadas active cases. However they seem to be slow to report recovered cases so that could account for some of the difference.

    1. It’s a good thing they turned the spigot back on for Haitian refugees who were living in NYC!

  9. Deaths from Covid in the UK have been declining since March 8. Since they had to be infected before they died infections must have started declining a fortnight before that. Of course since testing is being increased more cases are being found.
    It’s a pity that treatment for other ailments, including cancer and heart disease have been put on hold, otherwise all cause fatalities might have declined as well.

  10. Tim in Vermont writes:

    How do you develop “herd immunity” when half the people catching it turn into Typhoid Mary types seeking out the weakest links in the population?

    The short answer is “More quickly than otherwise”.   You seem to be confused as to how “herd immunity” works.   Regardless of the infectivity/lethality of a disease, the longer it takes to spread through a population, the longer it takes to develop herd immunity.   If the problem with “herd immunity” is that the GenPop isn’t developing it fast enough to protect the truly vulnerable, then isolate the vulnerable, and then bless all that’s holy that the super-spreaders are causing the infective agent to spread quickly through the remaining population.

    I’m much more interested in why certain areas are hot-spots.   Why are Montreal and Calgary such places?   Part of it is that the virus “took hold” in group elder-care facilities first (in other words, plain ol’ “bad luck”), but there’s a lot we don’t know.   I’d be interested to see if the particular mutations of the virus had been isolated and sequenced from these vulnerable groups.

    1. “The short answer is “More quickly than otherwise”. “

      I just don’t think you guys understand how herd immunity works. It never develops with measles because it is so highly contagious. When a small percentage refuses vaccine, it flares up again, not just infecting the people whose parents refused the vaccine, but that small and unfortunate number of people for whom the vaccine didn’t work, who were counting on nearly 100% compliance with the vaccinations. Absent controls, this is a highly contagious disease, not as high as measles, but much higher than the flu.

      It’s fine if that’s your strategy, and you should admit that a large number of people are going to die getting there instead of denying it and claiming that it’s “no worse than the flu.”

    1. Yes, layoffs caused all of the excess deaths in NYC plus many that they are counting as COVID! That’s some world class denial right there.

      1. A big cause of the spread in New York was the subways, the only way for a large portion of New Yorkers to get around,. plus they were late to respond.
        I heard there are not many cases is Manhattan, but the Bronx was hit hard. If you live in Manhattan you probably don’t take the subway. Regardless, the COVID-19 is contagious and deadly to a small subset of the population with underlying health issues. Less than 1% of COVID deaths are from COVID alone. Healthy adults and kids are relatively immune. To pretend that anyone can get it and die is disingenuous and a lie.

        https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/

        End the lockdowns NOW.

        One thing for sure, nursing home regulations are going to be changed to the better for the residents.

        1. “COVID-19 is contagious and deadly to a small subset of the population with underlying health issues.”

          Like anyone older than 60.

          “To pretend that anyone can get it and die is disingenuous and a lie.”

          And yet it does happen.

          1. Did you read the link?
            Guess not.

            ” “To pretend that anyone can get it and die is disingenuous and a lie.”

            And yet it does happen.”

            Not enough to justify shutting down the economy.
            Leaders initially got seriously bad info, that forced them to make the wrong decisions.
            Those people need to answer for the bad advice. It may have been criminal.
            Now real data says a lock down was over reacting.
            My point is reverse the lock downs now to stop the damage to the economy from continuing, it’s bad enough.

  12. As to the country of Belgium being hit particularly hard, I am very Old Testament and truly believe that the “sins of the father” are visited even unto the seventh generation. King Leopold II of Belgium was an absolute brutal dictator on the continent of Africa, especially the Republic of Congo. Belgium is the epicenter of the European Union. You definitely “reap what you sow”.

    FYI – this is also why the Kennedy family in the United States are only half-way through the curse brought on by Joe Kennedy back in the 1920’s and the 1930’s. John and Robert Kennedy were second generation, John Jr. and Caroline Kennedy are third generation – by my reckoning, we are only at the 5th generation now. There will be another 40-60 years of the curse to unfold.

    1. I disagree with your interpretation as does every major biblical scholar, Jewish or Christian, I have ever read. Sins of the fathers being visited upon the children does not mean innocent children are punished by God with a curse. It means when fathers (or mothers) do stupid things like drink or abuse or squander their possessions and wealth, it’s not just the father who suffers. The children suffer too and the suffering can go on for generations. Your version of God is a capricious uncaring monsters who throws curses on innocent people for no reason. My God does not behave like that. Belgium has been cursed with very high levels of coronavirus because of a high number of noncompliant individuals choosing to not stop spreading the virus. I believe that is the point of the image of rioting migrant youth. Saying ‘no one knows’ why is obviously sarcasm. It’s obvious that which must never be pointed out or named, i.e. problems in the migrant Muslim community, is the obvious cause but we can’t say the obvious due to fears of being accused of Islamophobia.

      1. “I believe that is the point of the image of rioting migrant youth.”

        Actually the point is to slander immigration by tendentiously linking coronavirus and immigrants. There’s no data, and the xenophobes are down to throwing everything at the wall.

    2. God Help us then Momma…we are only in the 3rd Generation (I believe), of the TRUDEAU Disease…the fourth currently being shepherded by Sophie.

  15. Well, at least we can comfort ourselves with the knowledge that we aren’t those anti-Chinese racists like Trump.

  16. I don’t understand why we’re putting any credence in time-series data.

    A virus doesn’t spread because of time. It spreads because of the number of current cases.

    Look at this graph: https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?location=Canada&location=France&location=Germany&location=Italy&location=Netherlands&location=Spain&location=US&location=United+Kingdom

    Canada plus a bunch of countries named as shirking and slowly growing.

    When you look at the number of new cases per week (because there is too much daily fluctuation to be meaningful) vs the number of current cases, Canada is well below the “two day doubling time” that has everyone worried. It’s not getting dramatically better, but it’s far from exponential growth. very similar to the UK and the US, all three are on an approximately 20-25 day doubling time and the trend is for that time to get longer and longer and longer.

    Regionally you can see it as well – https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?region=Canada&location=Alberta&location=British+Columbia&location=Manitoba&location=New+Brunswick&location=Newfoundland+and+Labrador&location=Nova+Scotia&location=Ontario&location=Quebec&location=Saskatchewan&doublingtime=45. QC,AB, SK are all faster than 30 day doubling, ON BC and NS are far slower than 30.

  18. Another perspective from unrelayable source. Pretty much common sense expressed on the pages of SDA practically every day.
    This guy has a mouthpiece, that’s the only difference.
    Of course he must end it with a blurb of nonsense that is typical of those that suffer severe case of TDS.

    New Rule: Immunity Booster | Real Time with Bill Maher (HBO)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=28I5WyLp15o

  19. Re the Imperial projection of expected deaths in Canada for week starting 27 Apr 2020: I checked PHAC website for daily reported deaths. They totalled 1,122 for 27 Apr to 3 May. Peak day was 207 deaths, but every other day that week was below 200 [compare that to the upward swing of the pink chart — showing mostly over 200 and well over 200]. So: Imperial was correct in putting Canada into the “more than 1000 deaths” category for that week, but projection trend was wrong — we had much flatter trend of deaths that week (range of 116 to 188 deaths in the 6 other days that past week).

  20. The use of daily reported cases and deaths is not an accurate portrait of the virus. If you delve into the pdf file attached you will see that the province of Ontario is doing this correctly by then placing the cases into their proper perspective by date of onset, not just date reported. Also you will find that the daily death toll is actually a number of cases that have been registered over the past number of days. You will therefore find that both the number of cases per day, and the number of deaths per day, are on the decline in Ontario.

    https://files.ontario.ca/moh-covid-19-report-en-2020-05-04.pdf

    Ontario Total deaths 1300
    Deaths reported in ages: 19 and under 0 – 0% of reported deaths
    Deaths reported in ages: 20-39 7 – .005% of reported deaths
    Deaths reported in ages: 40-59 57 – 4.38% of reported deaths
    Deaths reported in ages: 60-79 327 – 25.15% of reported deaths
    Deaths reported in ages: 80 and over 909 – 69.9% of reported deaths

    In the three provinces that report deaths with ages attached no one under 19 has died. In Quebec no one under 30 has died. In Alberta 4 people under 59 have died, 1 in the 20-29 range, 1 in the 30-39 range, 1 in the 40-49 range, and one in the 50-59 range. The worst hit age group is 60+. Perhaps it is time to acknowledge that and allow people to go back to work, kids to go to school, and ask 60 plus folks to utilize their own good common sense to decide what is best for themselves.

    1. People with virtually no information desperate to believe they are in good hands.

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