Category: Science

The Sound Of Settled Science

Nature;

When a team of cosmologists announced at a press conference in March that they had detected gravitational waves generated in the first instants after the Big Bang, the origins of the Universe were once again major news. The reported discovery created a worldwide sensation in the scientific community, the media and the public at large. […] Now, serious flaws in the analysis have been revealed that transform the sure detection into no detection. The search for gravitational waves must begin anew. The problem is that other effects, including light scattering from dust and the synchrotron radiation generated by electrons moving around galactic magnetic fields within our own Galaxy, can also produce these twists.
[…]
The BICEP2 incident has also revealed a truth about inflationary theory. The common view is that it is a highly predictive theory. If that was the case and the detection of gravitational waves was the ‘smoking gun’ proof of inflation, one would think that non-detection means that the theory fails. Such is the nature of normal science. Yet some proponents of inflation who celebrated the BICEP2 announcement already insist that the theory is equally valid whether or not gravitational waves are detected. How is this possible?
The answer given by proponents is alarming: the inflationary paradigm is so flexible that it is immune to experimental and observational tests. First, inflation is driven by a hypothetical scalar field, the inflaton, which has properties that can be adjusted to produce effectively any outcome. Second, inflation does not end with a universe with uniform properties, but almost inevitably leads to a multiverse with an infinite number of bubbles, in which the cosmic and physical properties vary from bubble to bubble. The part of the multiverse that we observe corresponds to a piece of just one such bubble. Scanning over all possible bubbles in the multi­verse, every­thing that can physically happen does happen an infinite number of times. No experiment can rule out a theory that allows for all possible outcomes. Hence, the paradigm of inflation is unfalsifiable.

It’s like climate science on a universal scale.

Climategate: Tortured Temperatures

Continued…

In 2007 I started monitoring a few GISS stations. Amundsen-Scott, Vostok, Halley, Davis in Antarctica. Then a few more over the years. It was just to check some of the claims of data changing. Also to see if I could plot the temps over time. Some small changes at first, but nothing of concern.
In 2008 I added more stations such as Nuuk, to check more claims. It is easy to save the temp files for each station. Picking a few stations at random points around the GISS globe, up to about 12.
Goddard was right. Past data points were changing. Usually small amounts on a monthly basis. Some station data did not change at all, but only the new monthly data were added.
In 2009 I was saving monthly data for 15 stations.Every month the most recent data is added to the end of each file. But, scanning past data it became apparent that some historical station data was being “revised” almost completely. That means that a time plot shifted by enough to notice on a temperature plot. Usually the “new” plot showed that the past became cooler. Small amounts, maybe one tenth of a degree. When I got to 20 stations, I noticed that one or two sets of data were being extensively revised every month. At the end of 2009 there was a sudden revision of more stations by larger amounts. Almost always the data before 1960 was getting cooler.
By 2010 I was up to 30 stations, plus the Antarctic four.
Akureyri, Bartow, Beaver City, Concordia, Crete NE, Ellsworth, Franklin, Gothenburg, Hanford, Honolulu, Hilo, Jan Mayen, Kodiak, Kwajaalein, La Serena, Loup City, Minden, Nantes, Nome, Norfolk Island, Nuuk, Red Cloud, St. Helena, St. Paul, Steffenville, Thiruvanantha, Truk, Wakeeny, Yakutat, Yamba.
Downloading 30 sets of temperature data to save. Then putting all data into an excel file to make plots. Then comparing time plots to see where individual data points had changed. It became clear that a regular revision of about 10 percent of all GISS stations was taking place on a monthly basis.
Every month in 2010, three of the 30 stations has changes to past data points that were visible by plotting. Looking at every point for every station is not possible, but scanning at random shows that many stations have small changes. 2011 was about the same, but at the end of 2011 was another substantial change to many stations.
In early 2012 my 10 year old hard drive died. I had a separate backup, but it was found to be virus infected to the extent that I could not save all data. I still have the drive and can open some files but can’t copy files to another drive.
In 2012 GISS began making larger changes to more past data. Some stations were showing monthly changes that could only be described as “erratic” with some large shifts for a couple months, followed by data returning to values from months earlier. Sometime in December 2012 was a very large change in past data for many stations. Some stations showed data that stopped in 2007 or 2008. In March 2013 those stations were suddenly “restored” and resumed showing complete data up to March 2013.
Every month GISS changes past data by small amounts to some historical data. Some stations are being selected for larger revisions at random times. For some stations, portions of data from decades ago vanishes completely. The numbers are replaced with “999.9″ indicating no data. Months later those same past data points re-appear, just as they were before, sometimes with small adjustments. If what is happening to a sample of 30 stations is any indication of the entire GISS data set, then I’d say that there is an Orwellian plot to manipulate the past.
There is no record of these past changes, it would be impossible to verify or reproduce those changes. Over the years, the past keeps getting colder.

h/t John Groves

The Sound Of Settled Science

New York Times;

“We’ve had a rebound that we haven’t seen in many, many years,” said Gene Clark, a coastal engineer with the University of Wisconsin Sea Grant Institute in Superior, Wis. “We’ve been historically below average, and now we are finally back to above-average water levels.
[…]
The International Joint Commission, a group with members from the United States and Canada that advises on water resources, completed a five-year study in April 2013 concluding that water levels in the lakes were likely to drop even farther, in part because of the lack of precipitation in recent years brought on by climate change.

A good news story at odds with climate alarmist predictions? That’s what page A16 is for!
h/t Don

The Sound Of Settled Science

New solar model predicts imminent global cooling;

As we head to the UNFCCC meeting in Paris 2015 where global bureaucracy beckons, a sharp cooling change appears to be developing and set to hit in the next five years. Yet consortia of five-star politicans are not preparing for climate change, only for global warming. Around the world a billion dollars a day is invested in renewable energy, largely with the hope of changing the weather.

The Sound Of Settled Science

Oops;

His case is one of dozens around the U.S. to come under scrutiny because of entrenched but now-discredited beliefs about how arson can be detected. The Arson Research Project at the Monterey College of Law in California has highlighted at least 31 convictions based at least partly on debunked fire investigations, including that of a Texas man executed in 2004, and experts believe there are many more.
“There was just no science behind” the old assumptions about arson, said Paul Cates of The Innocence Project, a group that works to overturn wrongful convictions, primarily through the use of DNA. “A lot of this was just guesswork and voodoo.”

Flashback: The FBI’s Bullet Lead Analysis Used Flawed Science

Not Waiting For The Asteroid

The sound of censored science;

Unlike their coverage of the political establishment or the corporate establishment, journalists will rarely be skeptical of the scientific establishment. Perhaps these ­unskeptical journalists don’t question scientists out of a belief that scientists’ pronouncements are free of the self-interest that taints politicians or corporations. Or perhaps these journalists, who are themselves rarely scientifically literate, blindly accept the views of scientific authority figures because they lack the training to assess rival views. Or perhaps these journalists fear being subjected to ridicule if they buck politically correct views. Whatever the reasons for journalistic deference to dogma in science, the victim is the information-consuming public, which at best is kept in the dark, at worst is duped.

All of which boils down to “lazy and stupid”.
h/t Ken (Kulak)

Some Workers Are More Equal Than Others

Really:

The $474,000 GM job

Update: Plus:

The strange budget priorities of Obama: Subsidizing car purchases for the 1% over poor children and airline safety

Meanwhile non-luxury Euro car makers are in trouble, especially Fiat (the proud owner of Chrysler which is in effect saving the Italian parent); VW–“slightly premium”–is however doing well, Ford is surprisingly not mentioned:

Too many cars, too few buyers

Nice charts. And note that Peugeot…

…is also worryingly dependent on selling cars in kit form to Iran, which account for 13% of Peugeot’s sales (compared with around 6% for Renault), and which would be vulnerable to any conflict over Iran’s nuclear programme…

The End Is Nigh

Sooner and sooner:

Who had the worst week in Washington? BlackBerrys

Capitol Hill, the center of the BlackBerry universe and a symbolic Alamo standing against an overwhelming iPhone army, ground to a halt…
…perhaps most impactfully, for many BlackBerry users, those of us who have long fought the good fight against the cultural coolness of all things Apple, the outage amounted to a final indignity. That, and the fact the new iPhone 4s came out on Friday [Oct. 14], of course…

Earlier:

Why the Berry’s Future May be Black

Those Wacky Education Profs, or…

…why Dick and Jane aren’t numerate. Margaret “Privileged” Wente:

Too many teachers can’t do math, let alone teach it

Unfortunately, the people who educate the educators sound like the wacky wing of the NDP. Here’s Fern Snart, the dean of education at the University of Alberta: “To educate students beyond the superficial,” she writes, “we must engage them in transformational processes and deep thinking such that they understand the Western position of privilege that is often reflected in issues of diversity, power, and justice, and that they move to an internalization of responsibility related to this privilege.”
No wonder little Emma doesn’t know her times tables. She’s way too busy learning how her Western position of privilege entrenches gender relations. Or something like that…

More on modern, er, educators:

Rhizomatic?

We Don’t Need No Stinking Giant Mirrors/Fans, or, What Frackin’ Peak Oil?

Well, well, well–this story from the Gray Lady, which hates the Canadian “tar sands“:

New Fields May Propel Americas to Top of Oil Companies’ Lists
RIO DE JANEIRO — Brazil has begun building its first nuclear submarine to protect its vast, new offshore oil discoveries. Colombia’s oil production is climbing so fast that it is closing in on Algeria’s and could hit Libya’s prewar levels in a few years. ExxonMobil is striking new deals in Argentina, which recently heralded its biggest oil discovery since the 1980s.
Up and down the Americas, it is a similar story: a Chinese-built rig is preparing to drill in Cuban waters; a Canadian official has suggested that unemployed Americans could move north to help fill tens of thousands of new jobs in Canada’s expanding oil sands; and one of the hemisphere’s hottest new oil pursuits is actually in the United States, at a shale formation in North Dakota’s prairie that is producing 400,000 barrels of oil a day and is part of a broader shift that could ease American dependence on Middle Eastern oil.
For the first time in decades, the emerging prize of global energy may be the Americas…

Meanwhile Bret Stephens of the Wall St. Journal looks across the sea with a rather dystopian lens:

What Comes After ‘Europe’?
The riots of Athens will become those of Milan, Madrid and Marseilles. Border checkpoints will return. Currencies will be resurrected, then devalued…

Gray Lady/WSJ predate:

Frack Whom?

Someone please tell Ontario Premier…

Dalton McGuinty about this shocking revelation from Spiegel Online:

Electric Car Revolution Remains a Distant Prospect

Update: Equal opportunity Publius for his part piles also on Timmy the Hudak:

The Incredible Mendacity of Dalton McGuinty
…The proposition to the voters of Ontario is vote out the generic looking lying bastard and replace him with another generic looking possibly lying bastard. I know what I’m voting against. What on earth am I voting for?..

Persichilli, or, who needs les Québécois?

Paul Wells of Maclean’s unearths some clear thinking from Stephen Harper’s former associate, Tom Flanagan:


…his big post-election analysis for the June Policy Options magazine (.pdf) is all about what we might now call the Persichilli phenomenon:


The Conservatives would still have a majority in 2011 even if they had won no seats at all in Quebec
francophone nationalists always present a problem, even when they can be brought to offer support to the Conservatives. They tend to have an instrumental orientation toward the federal government, seeing it primarily as a source of benefits for Quebec. This raises resistance among other Conservatives, who fear they will have to pay for these benefits to Quebec. …
In practice, French support in Quebec for the Conservatives was always fragile. Think how easily the issue of ‘culture cuts’ dislodged Conservative supporters in Quebec in 2008, even after the Conservatives had built a beachhead into the province in 2006. By comparison, the support of ethnic voters in Toronto and other metropolitan areas seems more likely to be stable, precisely because the Conservatives have attracted those ethnic voters who were already most like themselves in terms of demographics and politics.”..

Sweet Crude Vagaries…

…of oil prices:


In a competitive market, the price of oil would be linked to the marginal cost of the next barrel. In other words, the price for the first 88 barrels would be affected by the cost of producing the 89th barrel, in effect the cost of replacing each barrel used.
But in the world of oil, it’s hard to say what that replacement cost is. Producing oil is not like churning out computer chips, where costs are similar everywhere.
In Canada, it costs somewhere between $40 and $60 a barrel to mine and melt the viscous goo known as tar sands that environmentalists would rather leave in the ground. Yet in the Gulf of Mexico, where giant drilling rigs plumb deep waters, the cost of finding and developing oilfields can be relatively modest. Chevron, for example, has a $7.5 billion platform that will tap into a half-billion-barrel field at an average cost of about $15 a barrel. In Iraq, it’s even cheaper…
…There is no free market. There are obstacles everywhere. Pipelines. Politics. Oil spills. Warfare. They make it hard to figure out a marginal price for the next barrel of oil because it’s not clear whether the cheapest barrel can get anywhere near a tanker, refinery or consumer.
Then there’s the demand side, where needs and habits are so ingrained that we don’t respond quickly to rising prices…
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is devoted to the idea of managing — or manipulating — oil markets.
Though Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi emerged from the cartel’s cantankerous June meeting and declared it the worst one ever, when it comes to oil prices, OPEC is having its best year ever…
Some argue that an era of limits has begun. Yes, there is a peak to world oil production out there somewhere, because we’re gobbling up the plants and plankton that have been simmering for millions of years in the sedimentary cooker faster than the Earth can replace them. But we keep postponing that peak — by finding new fields, getting more oil out of old ones or clamping down on consumption.
Still, supplies could remain tight because of fast consumption growth in China, where every year it’s increasing by more than half a million barrels a day, and in India. The world has about 3 million to 4 million barrels a day of spare capacity right now, but prices edge up when that cushion shrinks.
The only way to restore balance in coming years will be through higher prices…

1989 vs 2011

Comparing Communist Europe (USSR excluded) with the Arab world. In 1989 those living in European Communist countries had a clear and attractive alternative to their regimes: Western European social democracy of various types, an alternative that from any rational, moral, economic and indeed emotional view (hard-core believing Communists excepted but they no longer dwelled in that part of the world) was obviously superior to present realities.
The wave of popular unrest now moving around the Arab world has, to use the obvious phrase, uncanny similarities in the underlying sameness of repressive conditions being rebelled against. Could Libya be the new Romania?
What is strikingly different is the absence of an obvious alternative model for government, economy and society in Arab countries. Where is the Arab EU model? As for other possibilities…
Update: Anne Applebaum draws another historical comparison:

In the Arab world, it’s 1848 – not 1989

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