Comparing Communist Europe (USSR excluded) with the Arab world. In 1989 those living in European Communist countries had a clear and attractive alternative to their regimes: Western European social democracy of various types, an alternative that from any rational, moral, economic and indeed emotional view (hard-core believing Communists excepted but they no longer dwelled in that part of the world) was obviously superior to present realities.
The wave of popular unrest now moving around the Arab world has, to use the obvious phrase, uncanny similarities in the underlying sameness of repressive conditions being rebelled against. Could Libya be the new Romania?
What is strikingly different is the absence of an obvious alternative model for government, economy and society in Arab countries. Where is the Arab EU model? As for other possibilities…
Update: Anne Applebaum draws another historical comparison:
In the Arab world, it’s 1848 – not 1989
Where is the Arab EU model?
Iran.
That’s what they’ll get if their revolutions succeed.
Dirtman
Nailed it in one.
Caliphate.
The other option is Iraq.
Which would any of us choose?
Technically speaking Iran isn’t Arab. Central and southern Iraq is.
Good observation, the Arabs don’t realy have any alternative but Islam. They don’t have a set of basic principles as it relates to freedom of expression, thought and such, other than Islam. Of course Islam has no allowance for those.
Dubai is doing well, not much opression for the home crowd relatively speaking,though its the oil. No oil, no Dubai.
Perhaps I am more optomistic than must and perhaps foolish.
Tunisia going down was not really all that startling…..Eygpt…..genuinely surprising…..Dubai well….now even Qadafi isn’t safe????
The entire Mahgreb from Gibraltar to Gaza is in flames and revolution…..that is a game-changer much like the turmoil in Europe in 1848 didn’t follow and past example.
Bizarre perhaps but it seems the old order is breaking down and the same unrest in Iran may rule it out as a role model. However, Israel is constantly on these peoples mind and given that militarily Israel has always prevailed…it could become the model.
When you remove Saudi Arabia, Iran, Syria, Hamas and Hisb’allah from the running, only Turkey and Israel remain as successful role models. In fact this current unrest could return Turkey to Attaturk’s pattern.
The MB is discredited by it’s close association with Iran which is currently shooting demonstrators……
Because the eastern Europeans aren’t mad, there was a chance for them.
Not so much for mongrels who rape reporters.
I can’t remember who said it, but one pundit said the country with the best chance for a stable democracy in the middle east is Iran. I believe it. They have a highly educated population, a secular orientation amongst the educated majority and being Persian, no particular emotional connection to the arab world and any Caliphate.
Hopefully sasquatch and DrD are right, but I fear Dirtman will be right, as the history of good outcomes is rare. There is no Bismarck equivalent in the ME at the moment.
The Iranian people are trying to escape the mullah’s shackles, but they do not seem to be getting anywhere at the moment other than to go to funerals for their friends.
I’d agree with DrD about Iran. Having known a lot of Iranians, they’re the least fanatical about islam and seem the most westernized. I’ve never gone out drinking with Saudi medical residents but gone to bars with a lot of Iranians.
One thing I’ve gotten from Iranians is that they are quite insulted if you refer to them as “Arabs”. They view these as backwards religious fanatics who unfortunately happen to be located in close geographic proximity to Iran. It may be that all of the westernized Iranian’s have come to N. America but I suspect that their lack of affection for radical islam is shared by the majority of people in Iran.
What did Eastern Europe win anyway, people hovel around from one min wage job to the other.Going from Ressession/Depression and belt tightening.Western democracy is a farce, unelected officials in Brussels make all the decisions and they are nothing more then puppets of the corporate elite. There needs to be another option
I admire the Persians however they are not a free people, they are forced to live under Sharia Law and follow Wahhabi Islam as their retarded leader tries to rewrite history where Iran is actually an Arab Nation. Wishing Iran’s fate on any nations is just cruel. There will be civil wars in Africa and the ME, the Egyptians are going to want some of the lovely Libyian oil money the Palestinians are going to want to Allafy Egypt and the radicals are already on the group spreading their twisted form of Islam. Things are going to get ugly very quickly.
Peter, “There needs to be another option”. You mean like the gulags?
It is little remarked that West German governments and unions laid out a very cynical process when it was time to welcome their eastern bros to freedom en mass. All who chose to remain in their eastern former prisons were brought under high wage union regulations that effectively negated the two major advantages they had to offer German and foreign investors/employers during the transition: a highly skilled workforce that had modest expectations involving wages.
Instead of rapid integration, the process dragged on for a generation and a half of welfare assistance, union agitation, and “job retraining” BS with the tab picked up by west German and foreign taxpayers.
In other words: ‘It’s islam, stupid’.
I’m quite happy to admit I have no freakin’ idea where any of this is going, but given Michael Totten’s article it is extremely clear why its happening. Fascism doesn’t work, is why. Fascism plus Facebook/Twitter/Youtube equals people in the street burning down the cop shop.
Given the thing that created this situation is entirely new in history, my money says what’s going to grow out of it will be entirely new. The Muslim Brotherhood isn’t going to fare any better against ubiquitous communication than the dictators did. Religious fascism doesn’t work any better than secular fascism, the Roman Catholic Church proved that in pre-Reformation Europe. Religious propaganda is just as transparently a lie and secular propaganda.
So, I’m happily living in the uncertainty and waiting to see what happens. Best outcome, the PEOPLE of the Middle East realize that a government that takes ten years to clear a land title and works by baksheesh isn’t something worth keeping around.
Say, maybe that idea could spread to Ontario!
The EU model for the rebelling Arab states is the EU.
Failing that, it is Turkey.
There is a faint hope for a good outcome in general to this process but I fear that the result will be the rise of some virulent form of pan-Arab nationalism under one faction’s general leadership, allied with Iran and Syria (two states that will likely not be rocked to their foundations because of repressive governments) and ultimately seeking a scapegoat to unite both opinion and anger. We can all guess who that will be.
Trying to place this in a context more familiar to our own sense of history is pointless, this is neither 1848 nor 1989, but in dynamic terms could be a bit more like 1917. Weak moderate leaders can do the heavy lifting for a while, then the hard men will come out of the shadows and take over.
Iran is moving two warships through Suez to a port in Syria. This may be part of a longer-term plan to challenge the blockade of Gaza. In a region swept by change and aspirations that cannot easily be met, strong anti-Israeli leadership will become more attractive and I believe that western interests will be threatened by this as well. I doubt that the end result of these uprisings will be that good for anyone, if it had been confined to Tunisia and Egypt perhaps so, but as soon as it began to spread the regional dynamics changed — and some of the regimes being challenged could easily be replaced by even worse pro-Iranian radical groups over the next few months.
One thing I overlooked is the pragmatic reality that Eygpt could, with UN/world approval, over-run the eastern oil district of Libya under the guise of restoring order and interdicting a blood bath.
That would be a game-changer.