Category: Y2Kyoto

Y2Kyoto: Damned If They Do

Western Producer;

Companies that have paid to source agricultural produce that complies with the European Union’s anti-deforestation law would lose out if the EU decides to delay implementing the legislation by a year, industry groups and traders said.

Deforestation is the second largest source of the greenhouse gas emissions that cause climate change after the burning of fossil fuels, according to the European Commission. The EU had planned to ban the import of commodities from suppliers unable to prove their goods were not linked to deforestation.

The EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) would have impacted imports of cocoa, coffee, cattle, soy, oil palm, timber, rubber and related products such as chocolate and leather.

It was scheduled to come into effect Dec. 30, but the EU Commission recently proposed a 12-month delay, under pressure from industries and governments who said it would cause supply chain disruptions, exclude poor, small-scale farmers from the EU market and drive up the cost of basic foodstuffs because many farmers and suppliers were not ready to comply.

The EU’s vegoil and oilmeal group Fediol said its members, which include trading giants such as Cargill and food processors such as AAK, will suffer losses from a delay after paying premiums to secure raw materials that comply with the law.

“It’s a financial loss they are making by having been ready on time,” Fediol director general Nathalie Lecocq said.

Cocoa processors and chocolate makers face the same scenario with traders saying they had sold deforestation free beans to them at a premium of up to six per cent.

The premium will now likely fall to zero because consumers won’t be willing to pay more for cocoa that complies with a law that has been pushed back.

Related: Trudeau’s Anti-Growth Agenda Chokes the Life Out of Local Economies

Y2Kyoto: “These results contradict the previously published work”

Roger Pielke Jr:

A new paper is just out claiming that climate change is increasing the damage associated with U.S. hurricanes:

“US hurricane damage, normalized for changes of inflation, population, and wealth, increases approximately 1% per year. For 1900–2022, 1% per year is equivalent to a factor of >3 increase, substantially but not entirely, attributable to climate change.”

As they say — Big if true.

Alas, it is not true.Stop me if you’ve heard this before — some researchers found a fake Excel “dataset” online and decided to use it in a peer reviewed paper, favoring the fake dataset over data in the peer reviewed literature of known provenance and subject to decades of scrutiny.

We Don’t Need No Stinking Giant Fans

Because it’s a scam and voters are catching on.

The future of the clean energy transition is cloudy. It’s well-known that there are disagreements—wide disagreements—between Republicans and Democrats about our energy future. But less well-known is the bedrock of public opinion on America’s energy supply, the importance of a rapid transition away from fossil fuels, and the general salience of the climate change issue.

Findings from a new YouGov survey indicate that most voters’ views differ quite a bit from those of rapid energy transition advocates. These views constitute an ineluctable reality that any transition, on any timetable, will have to deal with. At the same time there is political opportunity here to better align policy priorities with voter preferences.

Y2Kyoto: And The Grift Goes On

When the planet won’t follow your models, model a new planet.

Our new paper published in WIRES Climate Change questions the logic and the opportunity costs of building a digital replica of the planet — inclusive of its human population. These-much hyped projects — such as Destination Earth in Europe (DestinE), and similar initiatives in the US and elsewhere — are rapidly being implemented with no serious discussion or debate of how these efforts look through the lenses of system ecology, sociology and political sciences. Better and more equitable use can be made of scarce research resources.[…]

Models exist in a state of exception, having appropriated the academic prestige of mathematics and physics while at the same time escaping the critical gaze of philosophers and social scientists, including to some extent that of the sociologists of quantification. We reached this conclusion by comparing work on mathematical models with what sociologists say about quantification in statistics, economics, algorithms and artificial intelligence.

According to our analysis, modellers have acquired a central position at the heart of the climate change discussion, and make use of this privileged state to increase their political standing and funding, putting themselves at the helm of the climate change narratives and making climate change itself into an all-encompassing meta-narrative, subsuming all ailments of humans and their planet, inclusive of wars, authoritarianism, migrations, and various forms of aggression to planetary ecosystems.

The project of digital twins represents the pinnacle of this movement.

Y2Kyoto: South Africa Waves Hello

There’s an old joke about weaning the dog off food by reducing his ration by a kibble each day, until one day, he didn’t need food at all.

As summer heat strikes, the US grid increasingly relies on a kind of invisible weapon — the “virtual power plant” — to prevent blackouts.

Each VPP brings together large numbers of homes and businesses whose owners have agreed to use less electricity when needed — or even send some of their own back to the grid — in exchange for a financial incentive.

Participants just have to let the operators take control of their usage to balance supply and demand when the system’s under stress, usually by setting the thermostat a few degrees higher or tapping electric vehicles and on-site batteries.

Pool enough customers, and it makes a big difference. Energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie says the VPPs already deployed or under development in the US will be able to save as much juice as 33 nuclear reactors can produce.

Y2Kyoto: Californicated

Oilprice;

California is looking to rapidly shift away from fossil fuels and make its grid more resilient, but these efforts show the other side of the greening of the grid—power generation costs may be plunging, but transmission and distribution costs are rising, leading to higher spending from utilities.

These increased expenditures are passed on to consumers by the investor-owned utilities Pacific Gas & Electric, Southern California Edison, and San Diego Gas & Electric. As a result, electricity bills in California have risen so much in recent years that in some places, the power bill exceeds the cost of rent, The Wall Street Journal reports in a featured article.

The surge in bills has been “untenable,” according to the consumer advocate’s office at California’s utilities regulator.

In its latest 2024 Q2 Electric Rates Report last month, the Public Advocates Office tracked residential electric rate changes across Pacific Gas and Electric (PG&E), San Diego Gas & Electric (SDG&E), and Southern California Edison (SCE) service territories through July 1, 2024.

The report found that over the last few years, California’s electric bills are generally rising due to higher electricity use from things such as air conditioning, and higher overall electricity prices.

Since January 2014, residential average rates for the PG&E service area have jumped by 110%, those of SCE have surged by 90%, and SDG&E rates have soared by 82%.

Y2Kyoto: I’ll Miss The Polar Ice Caps

No Tricks Zone;

Per a new study, more than 2200 historical aerial photos of a 2000 km stretch of ice in East Antarctica have been recently uncovered. The rare images reveal what the glaciers in this region looked like in 1937.

Interestingly, the photos show all these East Antarctic glaciers have remained stable, thickened, gained mass, and/or increased in elevation over the last 85 years, with much of the growth and mass gains occurring since 1985.

There has been no warming in this region since the 1950s. This suggests that “global warming” plays a minimal role in ice thickness changes.

Y2Kyoto: Billion Dollar Directory

Roger Pielke Jr;

Shortly after my paper Scientific integrity and U.S. “Billion Dollar Disasters” was accepted for publication, I was tipped off to a public but unnamed and well-hidden directory on the website of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) that contained 17 (now 18) of the most recent versions of the “billion dollar disaster” (BDD) tabulation, dating to March 2020.

Today, I reveal the archive and what it tells us about the problematic methods underlying NOAA’s billion dollar disaster tabulation. […]

In the absence of methodological transparency, the hidden archive of the most recent 18 versions of NOAA’s “billion dollar disasters” allows an unprecedented opportunity to reverse-engineer NOAA’s methods that the agency employs for creating and updating its widely cited and highly influential tabulation.1 As you will see below, what the 18 versions reveal is highly concerning.

Y2Kyoto: There Goes The Consensus

Chris Martz;

This is perhaps the most glorious chart you will ever see. Green energy scammers are losing the support of the youth more than any other age demographic, the very demographic of people they appeal to the most since it requires their investment to continue the grift.

A recent Monmouth University poll found that the percentage of young Americans ages 18-34 who view climate change as a “serious problem” dropped from 67% in both their 2018 and 2021 poll to 50% in the latest poll. Support for government action dropped a whopping 18 percentage points, from 80% in 2021 to 62% in 2024. There was also a notable drop among those ages 35-54, but those 55+ remain unchanged.

Y2Kyoto: March Of The Killer Trees

Oh noes!

Trees are feasting on decades of carbon dioxide emissions and growing bigger as a result, according to a new study of U.S. forests.

Scientists tracked wood volume in 10 different tree groups from 1997 to 2017, finding that all except aspen-birch grew larger. Over that same period, carbon dioxide levels went from 363 parts per million to 405 parts per million, owing largely to the burning of fossil fuels. More abundant CO2 accelerates photosynthesis, causing plants to grow faster, a phenomenon known as “carbon fertilization.” The findings were published in the journal Nature Communications.

I mean, everything about this has to be bad.

Y2Kyoto: State Of Anorexia Envirosa

Public opinion is beginning to shift. Maybe it’s the blackouts.

A year ago I noted that the discourse around climate policy had changed, prompted by the security of supply and affordability concerns emerging in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, a conflict that sadly continues. The trilemma was back with a vengeance and has not gone away – recently the UK Government announced a renewed desire to see the delivery of more gas power station this decade, despite the lack of available abatement technology. […]

But probably the most seismic change in past year came in July when the Labour Party failed to win the Uxbridge by-election as voters rebelled against the expansion of London’s emissions charging scheme known as “Ulez” (Ultra-low emissions zone). As a result, councils up and down the country abandoned plans for similar schemes, and the unpopular incumbent Conservative Party saw an electoral opportunity, shortly afterwards watering down the electric car mandate and plans for heat pumps. The Labour Party is not immune to climate u-turns having recently abandoned its green-spending pledge.

However, it hasn’t all been good news. In February I took part in IE Week, speaking on the final day of the conference in a session devoted to electricity. Too many of the speakers spouted out-of-date mantras about renewables being “cheap” and painting a naïve picture of a green utopia with green energy, green jobs, sunshine and flowers. I likened it to a child’s picture of a house – ask any child to draw such a picture and you get something along the lines of the image shown – charming, but hardly realistic.

When asked about people sitting in the cold and dark in order to save a few pennies under the Demand Flexibility Scheme, one speaker hailed the “social media buzz” they were generating, failing to recognise that they were driven by poverty and not a desire to be “down with the kidz”. However on a more positive note these remarks did not go down well with the audience, many of whom thanked me for being the “voice of reason” in the room. Still, we need to do more to avoid designing energy markets with the affluent in mind, while ignoring the reality of the majority.

Y2Kyoto: Risky Business

The “Amazing Tale” of How Three Billionaires Plunged the World into Climate Catastrophism

It is a tale of how three wealthy men bankrolled a project to promote an extreme scenario to guarantee that the economic impact of climate change they projected into the future would be “eye-poppingly large”.

It will also not be a surprise to learn that the billionaire green activist Michael Bloomberg has played a key role over the last decade in lifting this implausible pathway to underserved prominence. Notes Pielke: “It’s a story of privilege and conceit – the privilege in American democracy that accompanies being mindbogglingly wealthy, and the conceit that climate policies can best be pursued by corrupting the scientific literature on climate change.”

In 2012, three wealthy men, Bloomberg, hedge fund manager Tom Steyer and former CEO of Goldman Sachs Hank Paulson chipped in $500,000 each to fund a project “making the climate threat feel real, immediate and potentially devastating to the business world”. An early funded report was part-titled ‘Risky Business’ and it focused on RCP8.5 “as the pathway closest to a business-as-usual trajectory”. The pathway was said to be “closest to a future without concerted action to reduce future warming”.

Y2Kyoto: Xi See What You Did There

More Chinese Communism can Save Us from Climate Change

Anyone who is curious why China is building wind and solar AND coal, the answer is they are building wind turbines because Xi Jinping told them to build wind turbines.

In 2021, Xi wanted to pimp China’s emissions record in time for the next COP conference, so he issued strict district level energy quotas, demanded more wind turbines and solar, and ordered a transition to renewables.

The order for quotas was obeyed, but Xi forgot to tell everyone to reduce their energy use, to ensure the quotas lasted until the end of the year. As a result, China burned through their quotas and ran out of energy by July 2021, and much of the Chinese economy shut down for a few weeks while people waited for new orders from the Communist Central Committee.

The central committee did the only thing possible, but it took time for news of the crisis to filter through the communist bureaucracy and for a decision to be made – they relaxed the coal quotas.

h/t PaulHarveyPageTwo

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