Today, in the first of two posts, I explain how the IPCC made several misleading claims related to tropical cyclones. The IPCC’s failures are both obvious and undeniable. I will walk you through them in detail. Once again, I come to the conclusion that the IPCC needs reform. Mistakes can creep into massive assessments, to be sure, but the failures I document below are absolutely unacceptable.
Replace “unacceptable” with “intentional” and everything makes sense.
Proponents of the renewables boast about how places like South Australia (SA) achieved near 100% renewable energy generation, often around the middle of the day, implying they could do it all the time. What they don’t say, because it spoils the narrative, is a lot more instructive. Look at the generation profile below of one such day. They had to keep the gas turbines on to provide inertia. These had to generate most of the load before dawn and at dusk because the wind wasn’t there. Battery provided very little. The balancing interconnectors to Victoria that allowed near 20% export or coal fired power to come in were important if not essential. Without the gas power and the Heywood line, SA would have been in real trouble.
Even on a “normal” day, the merit order in SA is akin to a switch. When the sun is out and the wind is blowing, the merit order is in negative pricing. When it’s not, prices go up, often around $400/MWh. That raises costs for the distribution companies which pass it on their customers.
It’s a long and detailed post, so do read it all.
Or, no end of snow.
75 million Americans are under winter storm, ice or blizzard warnings or winter weather advisories. They span coast to coast.
Including the first recorded blizzard warning for Los Angeles.
Storm watch at Ryan Hall Y’all channel.
From the Javier Blas’ Elements newsletter: A world still thirsty for oil
For years, energy experts modeling the impact of 2050 net zero targets on oil demand had the advantage that the deadline, and the incremental steps to getting there, were a long way off. If time proved their scenarios wrong, they’d be long forgotten anyway.
But now, those first intermediate waymarks are around the corner, and they look increasingly farfetched.
Earlier this week, BP Plc published its annual Energy Outlook, presenting three scenarios — not forecasts — for how oil demand may evolve. The Net Zero path, broadly in line with the goals of the Paris Agreement, is difficult to reconcile with current trends.
In such a narrative, BP’s model shows global oil consumption collapsing to 21 million barrels a day by midcentury, down from about 98 million today.
Ignore 2050 and focus instead on the intervening milestones, starting with 2025. In just two years’ time, BP’s Net Zero scenario sees oil demand 4 million barrels a day lower than it is now. That would mean removing the equivalent of Germany’s entire consumption in 2024 and repeating that feat again the following year.
Every oil forecast I’ve seen shows demand rising in 2023, and the few 2024 projections already published — including one from the US government — see growth continuing.
Looking further ahead, BP’s Net Zero readout suggests demand would need to plunge a further 9 million barrels a day from 2026 to 2030, falling to 85 million a day by the end of the decade. That equates to eliminating the consumption of France each year and, on the final year, striking out Italy as well.
Then the really difficult period starts. The scenario sees the world using just 70 million barrels a day in 2035, requiring the annual removal of 3 million a day. That equals the demand of Japan, currently the world’s fourth-largest consumer.
Net zero models look increasingly at odds with short-term trends. It’s possible oil demand can sink by 2050, but is it going to plummet in a matter of months and keep falling precipitously every year for the next decade? No.
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Related: Australia just extended a coal mine approval to 2063.
Record #cold in Antarctica on January 29. With a Tmin of -48.7°C, the Russian station of Vostok (3,420 m) broke its monthly record!
Norway closing last coal mine in Svalbard to save planet.
Nearby Russian coal mines keep operating.
“If you don’t take coal from us, you’ll take coal from someone else where it’s not that good – the world needs to take coal for your Tesla battery.”
Meanwhile: In Q1 of 2022 alone, China approved the development of more than 8GW of new coal-fired power plants, adding to the 18GW approved in 2021.
There’s just so many levels to this, I don’t know where to begin. So I’ll just keep laughing.
Climate activist Greta Thunberg has been detained by police during an anti-coal mining protest.
The 20-year-old found her self being taken by officers in the German village of Luetzerath
The village is under threat of being destroyed to make way for a new coal mine, called Garzweiler II.
h/t Dumb Biker
I’m not saying this was activists, I’m just saying they’ll be pleased.
Thousands of residents were without power near Tacoma, Washington, after three electrical substations were vandalized, local authorities said on Sunday, adding that it was not yet clear if the Christmas Day incidents were linked. The Pierce County Sheriff’s Department said robberies were reported at two substations belonging to Tacoma Public Utilities and another belonging to Puget Sound Energy. Deputies cited forced entry into the fenced-in area, with equipment vandalized but nothing taken from the sites, it said. More than 14,000 customers were affected. […]
Earlier this month, a utility in North Carolina reported outages from what local authorities said were orchestrated shootings now being investigated by federal law enforcement.
Watts Up With That- Coal Consumption Hit a Record 8 billion tons in 2022
Global coal use is set to rise by 1.2% in 2022, surpassing 8 billion tonnes in a single year for the first time and eclipsing the previous record set in 2013, according to Coal 2022, the IEA’s latest annual market report on the sector. Based on current market trends, the report forecasts that coal consumption will then remain flat at that level through 2025 as declines in mature markets are offset by continued robust demand in emerging Asian economies. This means coal will continue to be the global energy system’s largest single source of carbon dioxide emissions by far.
Green Germany Hemorrhaging €1.5 Billion per DAY to Keep the Lights On
New York Democratic Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s new climate change documentary debuted in movie theaters over the weekend, generating an abysmal $80 per theater.
The new film, “To the End,” was filmed over four years and follows four young women, Cortez, activist Varshini Prakash, climate policy writer Rhiana Gunn-Wright and political strategist Alexandra Rojas, as they attempt to pass sweeping climate change legislation in Congress.
The film currently boasts an 88% “fresh” critic score on Rotten Tomatoes and does not yet have an audience score.
The US data in review, from Roger Pielke Jr.
They go wherever the money will take them: Are greens replacing fantasies of energy sources which don’t work, with fantasies of energy sources which don’t exist?
Bloomberg: Vanguard Quits Net-Zero Group, Marking Biggest Defection Yet
Vanguard Group Inc. is walking out of the world’s largest climate-finance alliance, marking the coalition’s biggest defection to date as US Republicans step up their threats against firms deemed hostile toward the fossil-fuel industry.
Vanguard’s decision followed a “considerable period of review,” according to a company statement Wednesday. Withdrawing from the Net Zero Asset Managers initiative, which is a sub-unit of the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero, “will help provide the clarity our investors desire” about everything from the role of index funds, to financial risks in the context of climate change, the firm said.
Creepy Mark Carney, chief architect of GFANZ “said earlier this year the alliance has enjoyed considerable growth…”
Related, via Steve Milloy – Britain approves first new coal mine — to operate for 50 years. “The mine seeks to be net zero in its operations.”🙄 So 50 years of lying coming up.
President Joe Biden’s Department of Energy is touting a grant to a lithium battery company as a move that would help herald the shift to green energy and ensure the United States is cultivating domestic sources of energy. It did not say, however, that the Texas company receiving the grant operates primarily from China and is under scrutiny from American financial regulators.
The DOE announced in October that it would give the $200 million award to Microvast Holdings to build a battery separator facility in Tennessee, using funding from the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law. At the time, Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said the grant would “supercharge the private sector to ensure our clean energy future is American-made.”
VW warns soaring EU energy costs render battery plants unviable;
Investment in German and EU industrial projects such as battery-cell factories will be unfeasible if the region’s policy makers fail to control ballooning energy prices in the long-term, the head of Volkswagen Group’s namesake brand, Thomas Schäfer, said.
“Unless we manage to reduce energy prices in Germany and Europe quickly and reliably, investments in energy-intensive production or new battery cell factories in Germany and the EU will be practically unviable,” VW Schaefer wrote Monday on LinkedIn.
“The value creation in this area will take place elsewhere.”
VW plans to have six battery factories in full operation across Europe by 2030 under its battery company PowerCo, which broke ground on its lead plant in Germany in July of this year and signed a 3 billion euro ($3.1 billion) joint venture with Umicore in September for cathode material production.
An outline for industrial-policy cooperation hatched by the French and German economy ministers last week “falls short in crucial areas and does not address the envisaged priorities,” Schaefer said.
