Category: Y2Kyoto

Y2Kyoto: Schadenfrozen

Bloomberg;

Scholz’s three-party alliance agreed on an ambitious agenda to decarbonize the European Union’s biggest economy: getting coal out of the electricity system faster, filling the autobahns with electric vehicles and weaning households off natural gas heating.

Those goals are starting to look ever more distant as Germany’s political mood shifts. First, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine turned the energy market upside down, forcing a dash to replace pipeline gas from Siberia and delaying the phaseout of coal. […]

Polls show Europe’s electorates still broadly support net zero goals, but faced with the pressure of higher inflation, that doesn’t mean they’re on board with the climbing costs of making the switch to a greener economy.

Germany’s right-wing and climate-skeptic AfD party has overtaken Scholz’s Social Democrats in popularity. In the UK, Rishi Sunak’s government is backtracking on the climate promises made by Boris Johnson. And France is reeling from riots that are likely to make the climate less of a priority.

The green revolution faces turbulence in Germany and beyond.

Y2Kyoto: The Planet Has A Fever

Oh wait, no – it’s chills.

Wine growers in British Columbia are calculating their losses from a bitter cold snap in the province last winter that has devastated vineyards.

Industry representatives are at a Kelowna winery today outlining the effect on vineyards, harvests, revenues and jobs after December’s freeze that saw temperatures in the Okanagan dip to minus 30 C.

Wine Growers B.C. president Miles Prodan says in a statement that the “climate-change related” cold snap had the potential to cut this year’s grape and wine production by between 39 and 56 per cent, with direct revenue losses of up to $145 million.

He cites a grower’s survey that says the impact of the freeze could result in the loss of 381 jobs, representing a 20 per cent reduction in the industry’s workforce.

They’re shameless.

Y2Kyoto: Down In Flames

“Experts say dry air, strong winds, parched trees and grass and soaring temperatures caused the Oak fire to expand rapidly through the rugged foothills in recent days. The area has experienced nearly two weeks of triple digit temperatures and low humidity,” The Guardian reported of the Oak Fire as it spread. “All this comes at a time when the state is seeing increasingly destructive and deadly blazes and the climate crisis creates conditions ripe for destruction.”

Taxpayer funded (in part) PBS emphasized that the Oak Fire was one of the “devastating consequences” of the “global climate crisis.”

Over at CNN, Chief Climate Correspondent Bill Weir explained how a “‘megadrought’ driven by climate change that is affecting California and other western states has left plenty of dry, flammable material that can become fuel so quickly, especially when humidity is low and winds are high.”

I won’t spoil the punchline.

Related: Day 8 of rain in central Alberta after we were told the worst drought ever seen in Alberta was because we don’t pay enough carbon tax.

Schadenfrozen

Bloomberg;

Whether it’s chemicals or steelmakers, demand for natural gas from Europe’s power-hungry industrial heartland was slammed hard by the energy crisis that unfolded after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The largest consumers of the fuel still appear reluctant to run their businesses at full steam after the record surge in power and gas prices prompted them to curb production over the winter.

The sustained demand shortfall is one of the main reasons European gas prices have collapsed 60% this year alone.

Unless something fundamental changes in the short-term — perhaps record-high storage levels unexpectedly dropping due to extreme hot weather and an increase in demand for cooling — prices are set to remain under pressure.

And who can blame them.

Well, moving production to China is a plan: More companies setting ‘net-zero’ climate targets, but few have credible plans

Y2Kyoto: Crying Fire In A Crowded News Cycle

Why can’t modern journalism convince the public that every fire season is worse than the last? What are they getting wrong?

It’s Not Sleazy Being Green

No, not at all;

The unscrupulous recycling of cooking oil is a hazard China has long been all too familiar with. Merchants were once infamous for collecting waste to blend with clean edible oil, triggering scandals — and eventually crackdowns.

Today, with the waste-oil industry and westward exports booming thanks to Europe’s push for more green fuel, the questions are back.

European producers worry they’re being undercut by companies in Asia that are mixing fuels with cheaper feedstocks and mislabeling them in order to qualify for renewable-energy incentives.

There is circumstantial evidence for concern. A spike in Chinese exports to Europe over the past year has coincided with a significant increase in Chinese imports of palm waste and palm-based biofuel from Indonesia and Malaysia.

Those products have been shunned by European Union nations and their consumers, wary of encouraging deforestation and, in general, reluctant to use agricultural products for fuel.

Y2Kyoto: Stop Making Sense

5 Things I Truly Don’t Understand About The ‘Inevitable Energy Transition’

In a world that is apparently getting both warmer and colder because of global warming, how is it that we can increasingly rely on non-dispatchable (i.e., intermittent, usually unavailable), weather-dependent electricity from wind and solar plants to displace, not just supplement, dispatchable (i.e., baseload, almost always available) coal, gas, and nuclear power? In other words, if our weather is becoming less predictable, how is it that a consuming economy like ours can, or should even try, predictably rely on weather-dependent resources? ERCOT exemplifies this: the Texas grid operator has around 31,000 MW of wind capacity but goes into winter expecting only 6,000 MW (just 20%) of wind farms to be available to generate electricity. Again, in the marketplace, the “alternatives” you keep hearing about are proving to be far more supplemental than alternative.

Further, good wind and solar spots are finite, based on geography, so new builds, naturally, will be forced into areas that are less windy and less sunny, lowering their already very low 35% capacity factors. And because they devour immense swaths of land, interrupting a whole host of things, that Renewable Rejection Database is mounting very quickly. If wind, solar, and electric cars too are as effective and low-cost as so many keep promising us, there would obviously be no need for government subsidies for broad adoption. Yet, there is, gigantically so. Huge amounts of taxpayer money going into this, what I call “the holy climate panacea triad,” are vulnerable to changing politics and bound to become politically untenable at some point:“Ford Is Losing $66,446 On Every EV It Sells.”

Y2Kyoto: #SKExit

If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.

Earlier this month, Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe said the federal government’s goal for net-zero emissions wasn’t realistic.

He doubled down on that statement Tuesday while announcing the province’s plans for electricity generation to 2035 and beyond.

“The federal government’s standards for zero emissions electrical generation by 2035 are unrealistic and unaffordable,” Moe said in a media release. “They mean SaskPower rates would more than double and we may not have enough generation to keep the lights on.

“I’m not going to let that happen.”

That which can be ignored no longer: Alberta’s wind power drops to 2 megawatts out of 3618 on Friday, the lowest level we’ve seen yet

Y2Kyoto: State Of Anorexia Envirosa

If you live in Alberta, you may have noticed we are in the midst of a provincial election campaign. Regarding the potential outcomes, all I can say is this: I’m grateful to live near some natural gas wells. I’m grateful to step outside the city and be farmers and farmland and have clean water.

Taken together, by 2050, it seems quite probable that only those living amongst such a collection will be the last people standing.

Our two main combatants in the provincial election are, to the extent I am paying attention (not really), duking it out over who has the best emissions reduction plan, and who’s the most apt to lead to net zero 2050.

You want to run towards that light?

Y2Kyoto: State Of Anorexia Envirosa

They really don’t like you, and they’re doing something about it.

In Enemies of Progress, author Austin Williams suggests that ‘the mantra of sustainability’ starts with the assumption that humanity is ‘the biggest problem of the planet’, rather than the ‘creators of a better future’. Indeed, many climate scientists and green activists see having fewer people on the planet as a key priority. Their programme calls not only for fewer people and fewer families, but also for lower consumption among the masses. They expect us to live in ever smaller dwelling units, to have less mobility, and to endure more costly home heating and air-conditioning. These priorities are reflected in a regulatory bureaucracy that, if it does not claim justification from God, acts as the right hand of Gaia and of sanctified science.

They will never admit to failure: To aspiring central planners and their enablers in the media, empirical evidence that their policies are backfiring is merely proof of the need to double down. From this, a horde of otherwise intelligent people earnestly believes that proactively destabilizing the grid is not the cause of grid instability.

Y2Kyoto: A Tip From An IPCC Insider

Roger Pielke Jr;

A high level participant in the IPCC (purposely vague to protect their identity) has confirmed to me that the major error on tropical cyclones that I recently identified was (a) indeed a major snafu and (b) a result of claims being inserted into the IPCC outside its review process. Neither of these things should happen in an process that the IPCC promotes as the “gold standard” of scientific assessment.

The error was to claim that a change in the proportion of Category 3-5 tropical cyclones has been detected and attributed to human-caused climate change, which is contrary to both evidence and the scientific literature. Even worse, in making the false claims the IPCC confused a study of measurements of tropical cyclones with tropical cyclones, and failed to acknowledge that paper had undergone a major correction, which altered its conclusions and rendered it irrelevant.

The false claim was not caught and was ultimately elevated by the IPCC to the summary of its recent Synthesis Report where it was promoted as one of the most significant scientific findings of the past assessment cycle. You can read all of the details on the error in this post and its follow up.

The tip that I received prompted me to go back and look carefully at the evolution of the drafting IPCC AR6, which was where the mistake made. I can confirm that the tip checks out. The IPCC failed to follow its own procedures of quality control and peer review. False information made its way into the report outside of the review process and was repeatedly elevated to the highest levels of information conveyed to policy makers.

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