Category: Y2Kyoto

Y2Kyoto: I’ll Miss The Polar Bears

Climate Cult Y2Kyoto 5 Comments

Endangered narrative;

One powerful polar bear fact is slowly rising above the message of looming catastrophe repeated endlessly by the media: More than 15,000 polar bears have not disappeared since 2005. Although the extent of the summer sea ice after 2006 dropped abruptly to levels not expected until 2050, the predicted 67-per-cent decline in polar bear numbers simply didn’t happen. Rather, global polar bear numbers have been stable or slightly improved. The polar bear’s resilience should have meant the end of its use as a cherished icon of global warming doom, but it didn’t. The alarmism is not going away without a struggle.

More here.

Blowout 219

Y2Kyoto 2 Comments

An eclectic mix of energy and climate news stories from around the world compiled by Roger Andrews.

This week’s lead story picks itself. Finally we have a study from a respected academic institution which concludes that 100% – or even 77% – renewable energy won’t keep the lights on. We follow with OPEC’s nightmare scenario; Saudi Arabia gets into fracking; oil majors and climate change; another Ukraine-Russia gas dispute; Germany’s coal phase-out stalls again; Canada’s climate targets; cheap power from Snowy 2.0; competition for Tesla; Theresa May seeks energy cooperation with EU; Labour backs Mersey tidal; Scotland’s world-beating wind farm and how Serbia and Kosovo made you late for work.

Blowout 219

Oil Production Vital Statistics February 2018

Y2Kyoto No Comments

Last month I wrote this on the price of oil:

A correction is now overdue and I suspect we see $65 before a significant move above $70. The only bearish signal is US+Canada production growth.

The Brent front month corrected to ~$63 and now stands on $64.37. Art Berman has an interesting article Oil Price Crossroad recognising that we are now in the territory of market indecision. The IEA OMR is confusing saying both “rebounding US production underpinned non-OPEC output growth” and “Non-OPEC output dropped by 175 kb/d in January” (I think the former is YoY and the latter MoM). Below the fold I simply try to look at the bare facts.
Oil Production Vital Statistics February 2018

Blowout 219

Y2Kyoto 2 Comments

An eclectic mix of energy and climate news stories from around the world.

This weeks’ lead story inevitably features the Beast from the East. Was it caused by climate change? Of course it was. Stories to follow include OPEC meets the US shale producers; the plight of Venezuela’s oil workers; North Sea oil & gas; Australia buys Snowy Hydro; Fukushima nuclear releases; the Arab World’s first nuclear plant; coal in China; yet another 100% renewable study; surplus solar and cryptocurrency mining in Japan; UK zero-CO2 ad banned; a diesel car ban in Germany; GE’s gigantic new wind turbine and airdrops for starving polar bears.

Blowout 219

The Beast From the East

Y2Kyoto 21 Comments

Europe, including the UK, has been gripped by freezing, snowy weather blowing in from Siberia. Atmospheric circulation has gone into reverse with freezing easterly winds. It has been far below zero across the whole of northern Europe all week. Global warming or solar driven climate change?
The UK has closed most of its coal-fired power generation. The 11 GW that remain have been running eye balls out all week, day and night. It has been windy, and wind has put in a strong performance, that is until the wind drops. Solar panels are buried in snow. And yesterday the UK grid operator announced we were about to run out of gas. What a mess!

The Beast from the East and European Energy Security
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Blowout 217

Y2Kyoto 3 Comments

And eclectic mix of energy and climate news stories from around The World

This week’s lead article features the “imminent end of cheap finance” – does this mean disaster for the renewable energy sector? We follow up with our usual mix of stories from around the world – OPEC; oil in California; Europe’s gas supplies and the “Beast from the East”; India needs 300 more nuclear reactors; Trump wants to sell off BPA; South Australia ramps up its renewable target; CCS in South Dakota; Elon Musk’s virtual power plant; a new offer on Swansea Tidal; Jacobson withdraws his defamation lawsuit; solar-powered rail for the UK and how CO2 dissolves Scottish starfish.

Blowout 217
Also last week:
Is Volatility in Oil Price on the Way, Again?

Oil price volatility exhibits periodic characteristics which correlate to that of general stock market volatility.

The ERoEI of Mining Uranium

Y2Kyoto 5 Comments

Most of us do not think about the energy we use to get energy. This area of study that comes in different guises is commonly know as net energy analysis. This becomes important when energy production systems consume almost as much or even more than they ever produce. High latitude solar and temperate latitude biofuels being good examples where the net energy, i.e. the energy available to us, approaches zero (energy return over invested: ERoEI~1). Mandates, targets and laws are effectively squandering resources. In this post I take a look at the energy balance of uranium mining in Namibia. The ERoEI is dependent upon the reactor technology used. Light water reactors indicate the ERoEI for uranium mining to be >>300-400 and in a fast neutron reactor >17,380. These numbers compare with conventional oil ~ 20 and oil sands ~ 3.
The ERoEI of Mining Uranium

Y2Kyoto: It’s Not Tampering

climategate Y2Kyoto 12 Comments

It’s Data Reassignment Therapy.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has yet again been caught exaggerating ‘global warming’ by fiddling with the raw temperature data.
This time, that data concerns the recent record-breaking cold across the northeastern U.S. which NOAA is trying to erase from history.
If you believe NOAA’s charts, there was nothing particularly unusual about this winter’s cold weather which caused sharks to freeze in the ocean and iguanas to drop out of trees.
[…]
That’s because, as Paul Homewood has discovered, NOAA has been cooking the books. Yet again – presumably for reasons more to do with ideology than meteorology – NOAA has adjusted past temperatures to look colder than they were and recent temperatures to look warmer than they were.
We’re not talking fractions of a degree, here. The adjustments amount to a whopping 3.1 degrees F. This takes us well beyond the regions of error margins or innocent mistakes and deep into the realm of fiction and political propaganda.

Homewood’s original post is here.

Blowout 216

Y2Kyoto 3 Comments

Britain’s free market approach to green energy is not going to save humanity from climate change, claims Labour’s Jeremy Corbin in this week’s feature story. So let’s nationalize the UK energy industry. Stories to follow include OPEC vs. shale; Venezuela’s collapse; Gazprom and Europe’s gas; nuclear in India, Taiwan, France and the Middle East; carbon capture & storage in the US and Norway; Bitcoin mining in Iceland; a Puerto Rico school goes solar; Elon Musk to shake up the Oz grid; CCGTs lose out to batteries and interconnectors in US and UK capacity auctions, blockchain grid balancing in Germany; Lord Deben questions Swansea Bay; the coming mini-ice age and the solution to climate change – more women.

Blowout 216

Global Energy Forecast to 2100

Y2Kyoto 17 Comments

A global energy demand forecast is presented to 2100 based on historic growth of per capita energy consumption, 1965-2015 and on UN low and medium population growth forecasts. The low forecast sees energy demand growing from 13.15 billion tonnes oil equivalent (toe) per annum in 2015 to 19.16 billion toe in 2100. The medium population forecast sees 29.5 billion toe in 2100, that is a rise of 124% over 2015.
Global Energy Forecast to 2100
PS Canada leads the world rankings in per capita energy use, using 9.8 toe per capita in 2008. This compares with Denmark at 3.1 toe.
india-strike-5.jpg

Turning Canada into a Giant Battery

Y2Kyoto 39 Comments

The potential energy contained in the waters of the Great Lakes amounts to approximately six thousand terawatt hours, enough to supply the US and Canada with electricity for an entire year were the lakes to be drained to sea level. This of course will never happen, but there may be potential for partial utilization of the resource. A pumped hydro system that uses Lakes Huron and Michigan as the upper reservoir and Lake Ontario as the lower could theoretically generate 10 terawatt-hours, or more, of seasonal energy storage without changing lake levels significantly. The most likely show-stopper is the increased likelihood of flooding in the lower St. Lawrence River during pumped hydro discharge cycles.

The pumped hydro storage potential of the Great Lakes
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Niagara Falls run dry in 1969

Blowout 215

Y2Kyoto 3 Comments

This week’s lead story highlights the perils of basing policy decisions on speculative computer models. It seems that the ozone layer isn’t healing as predicted after all, so the dangers of man-made CFC radiation are still with us. And if radiation doesn’t do the job other computer models now tell us that melting permafrost threatens us with death from mercury poisoning. And if neither happens the forthcoming magnetic pole reversal spells the demise of civilization as we know it. Lots more energy and climate-related stories in this bumper Blowout, too numerous to synthesize, but read on and enjoy anyway. They’re not all bad.

Blowout 215

Oil Production Vital Statistics

Y2Kyoto 18 Comments

The oil price has begun 2018 strongly with Brent breaking through $70 / bbl for the first time since December 2014. OPEC+Russia+others’ discipline on production constraint remains high with ~ 1.7 Mbd production withheld from the market. The IEA reports an ~1 Mbpd stock draw in the OECD + China in 4Q 2017. IEA revisions transform the picture in the USA from one of static production to one of strong growth over the last 3 months (this undoes one of the assumptions used in my 2018 oil price forecast).

Oil Production Vital Statistics January 2018
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Oil production in Venezuela has fallen 810,000 bpd since December 2014 and describes the slow motion train wreck taking place in that country.

Blowout 214

Y2Kyoto 2 Comments

An eclectic mix of energy and climate news stories from around the world:

This week’s feature story raises the intriguing question of whether Russia, already a de facto OPEC member, shouldn’t become a de jure one. We follow up with a series of unusually optimistic stories on the future of oil and gas; France’s load-following nuclear plants; China’s new nuclear mega-company; Fukushima as a tourist destination; the EU acts to keep coal and gas plants afloat; a climate skeptic in charge of EU environmental policy; cuts in US clean energy spending; Maine’s wind moratorium; the UK’s recent capacity market auction; Australia’s heatwave inflates power costs; Ex-Obama adviser rejects battery storage; a 500-year solar cycle and how climate change turns big beetles into little ones.

Challenging the Establishment

Unsettled Science Y2Kyoto 18 Comments

The last instalment (probably) of this mini-series, I go on a picture tour of the N hemisphere looking into big snow and extreme cold events and ask whether these events are down to CO2 warming or could they be linked to the premature death of sunspot cycle 24?
There’s huge snowfall in the Alps this year, and one picture in particular caught my attention.
The Death of Sunspot Cycle 24, Huge Snow and Record Cold
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What has this winter been like where you are?

Challenging the Establishment

Unsettled Science Y2Kyoto 15 Comments

In my recent post on The Cosmogenic Isotope Record and the Role of The Sun in Shaping Earth’s Climate an interesting discussion developed in comments where there was a fair amount of disagreement among my sceptical colleagues. A few days later, retired Apollo astronaut Phil Chapman sent me this article which lays some of the doubts to rest. Phil never got to fly in space but was mission Scientist on Apollo 14. It is not every day I get the opportunity to publish an article from such a pre-eminent scientist.
Cosmic Rays, Magnetic Fields and Climate Change
soho sun.png
The N magnetic pole used to lie in northern Canada, but not any more.

Blowout 213

Y2Kyoto 7 Comments

Our usual eclectic mix of energy and climate news stories from around the world assembled by Roger Andrews

Donald Trump’s imposition of solar tariffs gets the nod as this week’s feature story. Does it signal a dismal future for solar in the US or is it just a bump in the road? In other news we have US shale spoiling the oil price rally; Austria on the nuclear warpath (again); Toshiba spins off Westinghouse; a nuclear reactor that won’t melt down; Canadians back renewables; Australia will meet its 2020 emissions target but Germany won’t; Macron’s tainted climate charm offensive; the “Tesla of the canals”; battery storage in the UK – yes or no? Budweiser beer is now 100% renewable and how bacon, egg and sausage sandwiches are to blame for global warming.

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