Category: Gradually Then Suddenly

Y2Kyoto: Coming Soon To A Canada Near You

Robert Bryce: The Deindustrialization Of Europe In Five Charts

Germany is once again, the “sick man of Europe.” But it’s not just Germany. All across Europe, industrial capacity is shrinking. Last month, Tata Steel announced it would close its last two blast furnaces in Britain by the end of this year, a move that will result “in the loss of up to 2,800 jobs at its Port Talbot steelworks in Wales.”

In January 2023, Slovalco announced it was permanently closing its aluminum smelters in Slovakia after 70 years of operation. The company, Slovakia’s biggest electricity consumer, said it was shuttering its smelters due to high power costs.

Europe drove itself into the ditch. Bad policy decisions, including net-zero delusions, the headlong rush to alt-energy, aggressive decarbonization mandates, and the strategic blunder of relying on Russian natural gas that’s no longer available, are driving the deindustrialization. How bad is it? Mario Loyola, a research fellow at the Heritage Foundation, wrote a sharp January 28 article in The Hill about Europe’s meltdown. According to European Commission data, industrial output in Europe “plummeted 5.8% in the 12 months ending November 2023,” he wrote. “Capital goods production was down nearly 8.7%. Investment in plants and equipment has plummeted.”

The result of all that lousy policy: staggering increases in electricity prices. Loyola notes that European electricity prices “have settled at triple their pre-pandemic levels.” Energy analyst Rupert Darwall recently reported that large businesses in Britain now pay up to five times more for juice than in 2004.

Gradually, Then Suddenly

‘most predictable crisis’ in history…

… the U.S. economy is resting atop a public debt exceeding $34 trillion, with its debt-to-GDP ratio sitting at around 120%. Perhaps not the blessing the Founding Fathers had once envisioned.

Now, alarm bells are beginning to ring with increasing frequency and volume.

Jamie Dimon says Washington is facing a global market “rebellion” because of the tab it is racking up, while Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan believes it’s time to stop admiring the problem and instead do something about it.

Elsewhere The Black Swan author Nassim Taleb says the economy is in a “death spiral”, while Fed chairman Jerome Powell says it’s past time to have an “adult conversation” about fiscal responsibility.

And despite the issue being the “most predictable crisis we’ve ever had” according to former Speaker of the House Paul Ryan—a summary Dimon agrees with—it’s an item that isn’t yet top of the political agenda.

Zerohedge: Household Debt Tops $17.5 Trillion

A Dying Industry

If the insanity doesn’t stop soon, there won’t be anyone producing automobiles of any type.

Not to put too fine a point on the state of the EV market, but Ford is losing $38,000 per EV. This means the more EVs they sell, the poorer the company gets. They made $10 billion dollars in profits last year, yet the balance sheet shows they lost about $5 billion just on EVs. This puts them in the bizarre position that they could theoretically give away the entire EV production line and boost company profits by 50%. It’s that bad…

Indeed it’s so truly awful, that the UK Lords are calling for the government to counter the misinformation campaign filled with “mistruths”.  The industry must be at deaths door.

 

Missing And Misappropriated Aboriginal Money?

If your reserve was sitting on substantial oil and gas deposits you’d have to have pretty lousy management to lose track of $120 million, but accountability is probably an outdated artifact of the colonial mindset anyway.

Public financial reports for Frog Lake First Nation show the band is short $120 million in net assets over a five-year time period between 2013 and 2018.

The records show the band-owned business called Frog Lake Energy Resources has been losing millions of dollars since 2015.

APTN reached out the current Chief Greg Desjarlais and initially agreed to an interview but later cancelled.

In a virtual meeting with community members he says that an audit is unnecessary.

What Happened To All My Free Stuff?

No doubt all the Keynesian court economists will tell us that the solution to this problem would be to forgive the loans in their entirety.

Last month, small businesses faced a deadline to repay interest-free loans of C$60,000 ($44,676) made available to each of them during the pandemic. Of the 900,000 who had taken the government support, a fifth have not yet repaid their loans, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland said on Monday.

Mortgage Market Blowup?

I’ve been expecting an implosion in the mortgage market for some time given the rise in interest rates relative to the debt that has to be supported, but so far that isn’t happening. It seems our friend Ron Butler has become privy to information that indicates a black swan event may not be far off, however.

Thread reader here.

 

Don’t Worry, It’s Transitory

UPS announces 12,000 job cuts

The workforce reductions will save the company about $1 billion in costs, CEO Carol Tomé said on a company earnings call.

“2023 was a unique, and quite candidly, difficult and disappointing year. We experienced declines in volume, revenue and operating profits and all three of our business segments,” Tomé said.

Shares of the package giant dipped nearly 6% in premarket trading.

Bidenomics: Last week, in a campaign stop at a Pennsylvania coffee shop, President Biden seemed shocked at the $6.00 price of his smoothie.

The Blowout Economy

Since GDP simply adds up all the borrowing and spending in an economy regardless of who did the borrowing and spending and for what purpose, it’s no shock that recent GDP numbers are higher than expected. Peter St. Onge notes that we are actually getting a whole lot less bang for every borrowed buck.

 

Don’t Mess With Texas

It’s on.

Texas Governor Greg Abbott issued a defiant statement on Wednesday pushing back against President Joe Biden’s attempts to stop Texas from securing its borders against the millions of illegal aliens pouring into the state thanks to Biden’s reckless border policies.

Abbott’s statement comes after the U.S. Supreme Court sided with the Biden administration earlier this week, ruling that it could remove or cut through razor wire the state has deployed to stop illegal aliens from crossing the Rio Grande into the state.

Read it here.

“The Executive Branch of the United States has a constitutional duty to enforce federal laws protecting States, including immigration laws on the books right now,” reads the statement. “President Biden has instructed his agencies to ignore federal statutes that mandate the detention of illegal immigrants. The failure of the Biden Administration to fulfill the duties imposed by Article IV, § 4 has triggered Article I, § 10, Clause 3, which reserves to this State the right of self-defense. For these reasons, I have already declared an invasion under Article I, § 10, Clause 3 to invoke Texas’s constitutional authority to defend and protect itself. That authority is the supreme law of the land and supersedes any federal statutes to the contrary.”

Universal Basic Insolvency

If our experience with pandemic “emergency benefits” is any guide, when you pay people not to work, then lo and behold they are unlikely to…work. It will be no different if the magical non-concept of Universal Basic Income ever sees the light of day.

As for the notion that under UBI people will be free to become “care givers” to loved ones, I can foresee a whole lot of youngsters becoming “care givers” to their PlayStation instead.

The Parliamentary Budget Officer produced an analysis in 2021 that concluded that a national guaranteed basic income using parameters of Ontario’s 2017 pilot project could cut Canada’s poverty rate by half in just one year, but at a hefty cost of $91 billion in 2024–25 and $93 billion in 2025–26. That’s nearly double what Ottawa spends, for example, on health transfers to the provinces.

Blind Faith

These days, South Africa is starting to look like a real-life enactment of the last few chapters of Atlas Shrugged.

Rampant cable theft has damaged South Africa’s railway signalling systems to the extent that train operators are effectively forced to operate “blindly”, necessitating frequent stops at railway transfer stations and manual phone-ins to avoid train collisions.

Pereira said a trip between Ermelo in Mpumalanga and Richards Bay in KwaZulu-Natal that typically lasted nine hours would now take over double that time.

That is because each stop can take about 20 minutes, provided the machinist has cellphone signal.

On the rare occasion that they are unable to communicate to the CTC due to no reception, the stop could add another two to three hours to the total trip time.

What the teachers strike is really about

This 2010 book foretold the problems teachers are striking over today.

This Saskatchewan teachers strike is about something no one wants to say openly.

Passing kids who should have failed, mainstreaming everyone, overcrowding and not enough ESL are all part of “classroom complexity.” But we’ve had ample warning this was going to happen, from a guy I’ve known for 30 years. He wrote a book about this in 2010.

Believe it or not, I used to write opinion columns for 28 years on everything under the sun before launching Pipeline Online. And this teachers strike in Saskatchewan got under my skin enough that I had to write about it.

 

A Revolutionary Culture

South Africa made some strides in cleaning up rampant criminality when it hosted the FIFA World Cup in 2010 but that all seems to be a distant memory now. The reality is that the ANC is returning to its ideological roots, where anarchy and lawlessness play a role in cultivating the ground for a revolution that they hope to cash in on. The end goal: make society so chaotic that a traumatized citizenry will accept a dictatorship of the proletariat.

Security vans carrying money are rammed off busy daytime roads by deliberate attacks with vehicles, with guards set upon by heavily armed men who use bombs to blow open safes.

Robberies can last extended periods, with motorway traffic continuing normally on the other side of the road while gangs prime their explosives and rove about with automatic weapons, sometimes filmed by onlookers.

The murder rate fell in the years after the end of apartheid, reaching a low point around a decade ago. Since then, it has increased 77% to the current level – back to where it was 20 years ago.

Detection rates have fallen in tandem, down more than 60% since 2012, leading to the situation where so few murders are solved.

It’s a Trap!

Globe and Mail- An immigration system that’s lowering national wealth? Yes, the Liberals did that

Ottawa has put the country into a bind known as a “population trap.” That’s the conclusion of National Bank of Canada chief economist Stéfane Marion. A population trap is an unhappy state of affairs familiar to poor countries with very high birth rates. It’s unheard of in the developed world. Yet it’s what is happening in Canada today.

Canada’s population growth through immigration has been so high that it has outpaced the country’s savings, and its ability to invest in new capital stock. In plain English, the number of forks in the economic pie is growing faster than the pie, and faster than our capacity to invest in more ovens to bake more pie. The result is less pie per Canadian – declining GDP per capita, and declining living standards.

Don’t Bump That Sparky Car!

It’s going to take some time to accumulate actuarial data, but a showdown between EV makers and insurance companies seems to be on the horizon.

The main reason that EVs are being scrapped is due to the fact that there is no viable way to repair even slightly damaged batteries which are turning out to be a disaster for insurance companies whilst also increasing motor insurance for drivers across the board.

Even when it is possible to repair a battery, insurance companies are still wary of doing so as they fear litigation cases if the car happens to be involved in another accident.

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