When I saw Peter Zeihan speak over a year ago, he openly derided the Russian war effort and confidently claimed that they were critically short of transport vehicles to even get troops to the front. A year later, it appears that the Ukrainians are the ones who seem to be running out of all sorts of stuff.
The Russian advances come in the face of a deep crisis in munitions for the Ukrainian military, creating a near-existential debate for frontline troops who must ration ammunition and are questioning how long they can withstand Russian pressure.
In another sign of the mounting sense of unease, the new commander of the Ukrainian military, Col. Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi, twice in the past week scolded his subordinate officers for poor performance on this key front line.
On Thursday, Syrskyi criticised “certain shortcomings” and “miscalculations” by commanders on the Avdiivka front lines “which directly affected the sustainability of defence in certain areas.”
LMFAO. Russia gained approximately 100 km^2 in February. Meanwhile they had the highest attrition rates in a long time. Around 300 casualties per km^2 gained. To the last Russian!
Even Russian propagandists admit the Russian losses were 8x-10x around Avdiivka and were openly wondering wtf they are doing.
Meanwhile Russian air force sorties have completely stopped except for long range missile launches. Maybe losing 13 jets in 10 days did something? Yet we see evidence that Ukraine is still using medium range (less than 100 km) missiles and even glide bombs. In other words, Ukraine currently has the advantage in the sky. I think it’s due to the Australian e7 (580 km) range that was recently borrowed. Now patriot batteries can link to the e7 for guidance and they don’t need the Patriot radar.
Turn to the Black Sea where Russia has zero control and it sounds like they just lost yet another landing ship to cheap drones. Ukrainian grain continues to flow out of Odesa without Russian involvement. Sevastopol is no longer a viable naval base.
Don’t forget, Gripens are coming, F16s are coming, longer range missiles are coming, Taurus is coming, GLSDB is either coming or arrived, a2sm missiles (up to 500 kg) are either coming or have arrived, and don’t forget about the 500,000 155mm shells and 300,000 122mm shells that are just waiting to be bought and shipped from the Czech effort.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-3-2024
“Ukrainian Air Force Commander Lieutenant General Mykola Oleshchuk stated on March 2 that Russian aviation activity completely stopped in eastern Ukraine around 19:00 local time following the Ukrainian downing of two Russian Su-34 aircraft.[9] Ukrainian Air Force Spokesperson Colonel Yuriy Ihnat stated that the decrease in Russian aviation activity continued on March 3 and that Russian forces have continued not to fly A-50 long-range radar detection aircraft following the destruction of an A-50 aircraft on February 23.[“
No doubt that the Ukrainians will be closing in on Moscow by tomorrow morning. Probably have the entire Russian army encircled by evening.
https://www.thedefensepost.com/2024/02/23/canada-czech-artillery-ukraine/
The Czech Republic could deliver up to 800,000 artillery shells to Ukraine from abroad if partner nations secure financing, President Petr Pavel said at the Munich Security Conference on Saturday.
Delivery could start in a “matter of weeks” and include 500,000 155mm and 300,000 120mm rounds.
This is a RUSSIAN source:
https://t.me/rybar/57869
“❗️ At the moment, Ukrainian formations have launched another attempt at a massive strike on the Crimean Peninsula .
To carry out strikes, both UAVs are used to destroy ground targets, and unmanned boats are used to attack ships of the Black Sea Fleet . Another target is the Crimean Bridge .
Judging by the explosions in the vicinity of Feodosia , one of the targets could have been the patrol boat “Sergei Kotov”, which was in that area. It is unknown whether there were hits or whether explosions occurred as a result of the destruction of the BECs.”
The text is Telegrams translation from Russian.
Yeah, yeah, Allan S… and WWIII is coming!
Look. I’ll give you that Dennis’ post may be a bit optimistic, but only because I don’t see a quick end to this conflict, and I don’t see how Ukraine can hold off against Russia without outside assistance. That is a HUGE problem for me.
The only people rooting for Ukraine to win this war at any cost at this point are the same people who are hoping for a larger conflict… like say, maybe WWIII.
You should look up history. Nazi Germany and Sudetenland in 1938 to be specific. “Just let him have this piece of Czechoslovakia and he will be happy”.
Do you want to guess what happened next?
We know what happened next. Czechoslovakia proceeded to go through the Second World War taking fewer casualties and suffering less damage than any other country in eastern Europe. Since you asked.
– Czechoslovakia proceeded to go through the Second World War . . .
Czechoslovakia didn’t exist during WWII.
Have it your way, Pyjama Fancier. “The territories that had been, and were to reconstitute, Czechoslovakia” went through the war. Perhaps I should have called it “TTTHBAWTRC” for clarity.
“I don’t see how Ukraine can hold off against Russia without outside assistance.”
But they are receiving outside assistance. Plenty of that has been listed above.
Meanwhile NK appears to have stopped shipping munitions to russia. Nothing to see there I am sure. And the price of the newest Shaheds (remember those cheap Iranian drones) went up to about between 1M to 1.5M a pop depending on model and russia is paying real physical gold for them. Nothing to see there either?
“The only people rooting for Ukraine to win this war at any cost …”
… are people who understand why Ukrainians said “never again”.
And Europe for that matter.
I wish that was true. Those bordering russia, plus Sweden, Denmark and UK? Sure. Those west of Oder I am not so certain about. France? Maybe, they are itching for a payback for Niger, see for example their initiative re Armenia. Germany? I keep having doubts.
– The only people rooting for Ukraine to win this war at any cost at this point are the same people who are hoping for a larger conflict… like say, maybe WWIII.
Not really, I want to see Russia defeated in Ukraine precisely in order to avoid a larger conflict.
Then you need to study history, then contemplate it, then rethink your foolishness, sans western agitprop.
You mean, they are waiting for American cash.
Right now, that appears to be on hold. As it should.
Hmm…Are there ANY Ukrainian Men aged 18-60 who have not been annihilated since this BS NATO Instigated war started.,..?
Seems not.
But hey the Russians are losing…LMFAO.
Keep sipping that Kool Aide. Reality is going to come as a real shock I suspect.
Cope harder Allan.
I wasnt aware 30,000 useless orc casualties in 4 weeks is “coping”.
Ukraine currently has the advantage in the sky
Ukraine currently has more control of the Black Sea
That is not true, you are confusing the ability to deny with the ability to control. Both sides can strike vulnerable units, it is just that russia has been exposing herself (often in most idiotic ways, see the last landing ship orcs lost) a lot more than Ukraine has been exposing herself. That does not mean that in the air or at sea Ukraine can perform more than hit and run attacks.
Ukraine currently has the advantage in the sky.
They do? As in what.
If you think F-16 can’t be shot down, you have another thing coming.
Ukraine is currently performing more missions. They’ve had zero losses lately.
Russia has something like 15 losses in 12 days. They’ve stopped doing su34 missions.
Advantage Ukraine.
SDH, so what specifics in what he wrote do you disagree?
What specifics did he write?
Would someone please please disconnect this irrelevant twit.
I agree, Putin needs to go.
“I wasnt aware 30,000 useless orc casualties in 4 weeks is “coping”.”
Four posts in a row? I can practically see the spittle all over your keyboard.
You actually *believe* all that propaganda, don’t you?
Get a grip. Russia will keep their current territory for as long as they want, and there is nothing you or your war cheerleaders can do about it.
1 post, the 3 replies are sources backing up the post. One of the sources is Russian too.
“1 post, the 3 replies are sources backing up the post. One of the sources is Russian too.”
Still four posts in a row, when you could have made one. You’re trying way too hard for people not to laugh at you.
I could not because the spam filter prevents more than 1 link per post.
What are the next defensive lines for the Ukrainians?
If you are talking about Avdiivka, the next line was reached rather quickly which is to be expected.
Yet we are to believe the Russians can roll through all of Europe if we don’t send billions more to Ukraine?
“Yet we are to believe the Russians can roll through all of Europe if we don’t send billions more to Ukraine?”
That’s the best part, isn’t it? Post after post about how useless and inept the Russian military is, and how completely they are being dominated by the valiant, heroic Ukrainians, inexplicably followed by “If we don’t stop them here it will be World War III!!”
I think they need someone to organize and coordinate their bots.
There are a lot of parallels with the First World War. We’ve largely reached a stalemate and have dug in, on both sides. No side can easily gain momentum. Anti-air has largely removed air forces from the sky, and anti-tank missiles and even drones dropping grenades have negated what used to be armour’s ability to move and seized the battlefield and the momentum. Any large group can now be seen by satellite or drone and quickly wiped out by artillery, HIMARS, or other means. I don’t know what is going to break the stalemate.
Another parallel is the artillery shortage. This became a really big deal in WW1, and the headlines are starting to read very similar. The difference is it should be a LOT easier today to make artillery than it was 110 years ago. Robotic manufacturing, C&C – heck, CAD-CAM lets you build almost anything these days in small machine shops. So why is it so hard to come up with artillery shells today? And while some talk about a million shells per month, there were battles in 1917-18 where that could be fired off in a day or two.
The only reason the Ukrainians are short on shells is because the West doesn’t want to get off its butt and either make or finance them. And without them, the Russians will slowly advance.
The small machine shops are pumping out mostly drones. Some are even in the USA. There’s one guy pumping out drones and other gun pieces out of his garage.
Anything artillery related needs to be strictly controlled. Tolerances are very specific, if they are not you can have barrel failures which we have seen in this war mostly on the Russian side. You can really only get both the volume and quality out of a large enterprise.
Oh, I get that. But we have mechanization and all sorts of 21st century toys. You’d think we could make this happen.
Some of the latest and greatest military equipment is absolute garbage.
Rattle your brains out and loud tanks by huge orders and not so good in the field.
Breaking easily or constantly back in port needing repairs…
A real trade off to using the global supply chain from reliability to not so much now.
Huge fleets means much more repairs with aging infrastructure.
What is looking good on paper is not exactly working well in the field of battle.
Not to mention stripping your equipment down so that advanced systems aren’t including.
We still have the same people in command who did such a great job in the Afghanistan departure and gave a Military Base of American Advanced equipment and technology.
“Oh, I get that. But we have mechanization and all sorts of 21st century toys. You’d think we could make this happen.”
Sure you can, Brian. You can easily keep supplying them ammunition until they are all dead.
– Another parallel is the artillery shortage.
According to some Russian sources, Ukraine is now producing 100,000 FPV drones per month – with a target of 2 million per annum by the end of the year. These carry only a small warhead but are capable of precise and adaptable delivery (including on moving targets) at up to 10km range. Whereas it might take 10 artillery shells to zero in and take out a strong point, a couple of FPV drones can fly in the door and shrapnel the occupants.
If true, this takes some pressure off conventional artillery. This can then be focussed on longer range and harder, or wider, targets. So far the Ukrainians have kept a lead over the Russians with this new technology (specifically, light FPVs). I suspect that whoever can add “AI” tracking to the toolset will have a massive advantage in that targets can be selected at distance and then autonomously tracked through any EMF interference shield.
On the wider conflict, I still see Ukraine’s strategic aim should be to contain and drain (16,000 KIA for each small town) the Russian invasion as much as possible whilst using long range weapons to make the occupation untenable, starting with Crimea. The Kerch bridge has to go, and the new railway along the Azov coast constantly targeted, for constant logistical pain. Relentlessly target the Black Sea Fleet as opportunities arise. Keep hitting war related infrastructure in Russia.
Just make the whole enterprise too damned expensive in every way. This is how the Afghan Mujahideen (with Western help) defeated the Russians (nobody expected them to win on the battlefields). That, and them losing the Cold War along with their communist empire, shows the Russians are quite capable of pragmatic defeat. They’ll follow Putin up to a point but ultimately they’ll defenestrate him – quite possibly literally.
“Just make the whole enterprise too damned expensive in every way. ”
While you are doing that, more and more Ukrainians are dying. Because it is a war of attrition, Russia cannot lose.
“Just make the whole enterprise too damned expensive in every way. This is how the Afghan Mujahideen (with Western help) defeated the Russians (nobody expected them to win on the battlefields). ”
Completely different scenario in a completely different environment. The Mujahideen never had to stand and fight the way the Ukrainians are forced to…they just hit the Russians guerilla style and ran back into the mountains and across the nearest border to hide (ala the Viet Cong). The Ukrainians don’t have that option, or that terrain.
This is how the Afghan Mujahideen (with Western help) defeated the Russians (nobody expected them to win on the battlefields).
Of course it’s a different scenario, but the basic principle of making the Russian adventure too expensive is the same.
Looks like Russia has probably lost another warship overnight, amongst big attacks on Crimea.
Your main point (with which I largely agree) aside.
“I don’t know what is going to break the stalemate.”
Modern VSHORAD like Americans begun implementing. A combination of cannon, missiles, lasers, jammers and electronics fryers.
“And while some talk about a million shells per month, there were battles in 1917-18 where that could be fired off in a day or two.”
Those weren’t at all accurate, back then artillery engaged squares on the map. That does not work anymore as modern counterbattery fire makes this impossible. Shoot and scoot is the rule for modern artillery. Modern munitions are accurate and cannot be that easily produced. “So let’s use large numbers of dumb munitions”, some say. But that way you are going to burn through barrels. Even the incredible quality barrels on Krabs supplied early in the war (that beaten all records for barrel longevity) are becoming smoothbore and it takes many months to forge an artillery barrel, it is process that cannot be speeded up, because you need to rest it for months at a time. It is a war of bottlenecks and improvisations, a war for which neither side was prepared. This is just one example of many.
Shoot and scoot – obviously the way artillery has gone for decades. So why did Canada buy towed M777 pieces (we gave some to Ukraine) instead of something like the French Caesar? I think the Swedes have a good one, too. I saw videos of one where it could set up, fire off like 5 rounds, and be moving again before those rounds landed. Utterly impossible with towed artillery.
Generals always prepare for the last battle they already fought. We were told for decades that there will be no more real wars and that all Canada needed was rapid deployment force for asymmetric warfare. Politicians loved this shit because they seen dollar signs and light is always cheaper than heavy. That in part is why they bought M777.
M777 are the best towed piece in Ukraine, “best towed piece” being of course an equivalent to “the most handsome hunchback”. They along with other towed pieces are getting slaughtered, their range being their only salvation.
Of course as Murphy’s Law of Combat Operations says “the capability you discarded as redundant now, will be critical in the next battle”. See for example self propelled AA guns and their usefulness in Ukraine.
P.S. I don’t think Canada should have bought Cesar, it offers no protection and is wheeled. They should have went for Pzh 2000 or K9 or my personal favorite Krab.
Another example of capability discarded right before it is needed is Royal Navy deciding that they will no longer need programmable 4.5 inch AA ammo, they saved on software update (literarily) … and then HMS Diamond went to Red Sea.
Because it was cheap. Always the Canadian way. When anything serious happens wait for the US to handle it while hectoring them from the high (and safe) ground. I wish the Americans would tell Canada to FOAD. A nation of spoiled coward children.
I’m rootin for Putin. If more people realized what was going on before Putin simply had enough of the agitation coming from Ukraine and the ever-preset American spookery with their secret bases in Ukraine.
There is much more to this conflict than is being reported. The Ukrainians were not only pig farmers, they also laundered money.
The American marionette masters and the EU are the real bad guys here … not Putin,
Do humanity a favor and don’t breed.
He’s not totally wrong. Thanks to O-dumber helping to remove the leader of Ukraine. Then the CIA moving in, plus talk of letting Ukraine in NATO.
Not every person who lives in Ukraine hate Putin.
The only reason Ukraine is short of shells is because it’s fighting a totally pointless war that it provoked for no reason. We in the West are not responsible for your bloodlust.
Bagdad Bob is out of retirement!
I just hope the American taxpayer can finance at least another two or three Mrs Zelensky Paris shopping sprees before the war ends. Maybe a few dozen Hunter Biden crack binges too. That guy can party.
Never in the field of human conflict analysis have so many known so little about so much.
+++JMacM
Welcome to war.
There are no experts, just hope.
Artillery and weapons can be supplied, and replaced. Ukrainians cannot. That’s the only “fact” of this war. All the rest, the article, most comments here are speculation, or rely on sources that agree with the author’s belief.
“Artillery and weapons can be supplied, and replaced. Ukrainians cannot. That’s the only “fact” of this war.”
ABSOLUTELY. And no amount of mindless bigotry, ridiculous propaganda or fake patriotism will ever change that simple fact. Do the math, people.
The Russians should have won in a month. Given that they didn’t they aren’t doing well.
Russian grinding down.
BOTH are grinding down, yet Russia has a much bigger population.
Russia has taken 3 other towns since Avdiivka.
Russian forces have taken 3 small villages after Avdiivka. Their advance will probably continue up until geographical obstacles, but it is already back to a snail’s pace with heavy casualties.
“Russian forces have taken 3 small villages after Avdiivka. Their advance will probably continue up until geographical obstacles, but it is already back to a snail’s pace with heavy casualties.”
Yes. Now they will stop advancing, fortify what they have taken and let the Ukrainians smash themselves against those fortifications as they did last time.
Well, that’s a testable prediction; we’ll see. You’d have been better making a suggestion of what could happen rather than a prediction of what will, but you do you.
I would suggest that based on previous and current behaviour the Russians are most likely to continue to attack at great cost (especially with Putin’s re”election” coming up). They’re the ones who have to reach some war goal (currently, conquer specified Oblasts); the Ukrainians only have to hold them and keep smashing their logistics and expensive infrastructure.
3 towns that Ukraine never bothered to put up much resistance. Look at a battle map to see why. They never built a defence network for those towns.
They never built a defence network for those towns.
Or they couldn’t. Troops or supplies
Speaking of drones:
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/28771
In this new, “mother ship” configuration, the drone is loaded with directional antennae, anti-jamming circuitry, extra batteries, and an on-board signal repeater. The Baba Yaga considerably extends the normal range of a cheap $500 Ukrainian killer drone, from a typical 10 to as much as 30 kilometers, according to the pro-Kremlin Izvestia news agency.”
I don’t believe this has ever been done before
Did someone get banned and is now having to use a different dumb*** handle?
LOL
The rats are leaving the ship.
*******************
WASHINGTON (AP) — Victoria Nuland, the third-highest ranking U.S. diplomat and frequent target of criticism for her hawkish views on Russia and its actions in Ukraine, will leave her post this month, the State Department said Tuesday.
That’s the ball game. Victoria Nuland has been up to her eyeballs in Ukrainian corruption since the Maidon Coup, which she orchestrated. She knows its over, and she is bailing. Without the Americans, NATO (laugh) could be defeated by lots of nations, since they have no troops, limited equipment, no guts, and no interoperability. To quote Steve Bannon, “NATO is a protectorate”. The protectors are moving on to protecting themselves.
Good.