Vitruvius’s Experimental Election Predictor

For the last five years I’ve been experimenting with a Canadian Federal election results predictor, a detailed description of which can be found in the Vitruvius’s Experimental Election Predictor essay at The Sagacious Iconoclast blib, and which is defined as follows:

Ve  =  ( CL ) × ( C + L ) ÷ 100

Here is a graph of Ve for the run-up to the 2008 federal election to date, currently showing the Conservative Party of Canada hovering around majority territory. I plan to update this graph from time to time between now and October 14:

Here is a graph of the history of Ve for the last five years:

The Sound Of Settled Science

Via Anthony Watts, who explains – “This is unusual. A live media teleconference on the sun.”

NASA To Discuss Conditions On And Surrounding The Sun
WASHINGTON — NASA will hold a media teleconference Tuesday, Sept. 23, at 12:30 p.m. EDT, to discuss data from the joint NASA and European Space Agency Ulysses mission that reveals the sun’s solar wind is at a 50-year low. The sun’s current state could result in changing conditions in the solar system.

Bookmark this Nasa page for the briefing on the 23rd.

Reader Tips

Good evening ladies and gentlemen, welcome to SDA Late Nite Radio. Tonight, pursuant to our Saturday night contemporary music show, we have been fortunate enough to find in the interwebothique archives a live performance of a great contemporary piece, so we don’t have to put up with one of those idiotic “music videos” that deface so much contemporary music.

Here then, for your delectation and without further ado, are Talking Heads performing Once in a Lifetime, from their concert movie Stop Making Sense, which was shot over three nights in December 1983, as the group was touring to promote their new album Speaking in Tongues; although Once in a Lifetime was originally recorded on their Remain in Light album (5:25).

Your Reader Tips are, same as it ever was, welcome in the comments.

From Pieces to Peace

obama.JPG
Just hours after a truck bomb created a monstrous crater and killed dozens of civilians at the Marriot Hotel in Islamabad, Muslims the world over took to the streets. Thousands marched in Turkey carrying placards that read … “not in the name of my Muhammad!”
In Canada, Muslim leaders were quick to condemn those who carried out the attack, saying that only fanatics and degenerates would carry out such an act in the name of Islam. Further abroad, in London, where many Pakistanis have immigrated, a throng of thousands marched in an act of solidarity with the victims of the blast.
From Saudi Arabia to Indonesia, Muslim leaders joined to distance themselves from this, and other, wanton acts of violence perpetrated in the name of the Prophet Muhammad.
When asked why the sudden outrage against terror, one Muslim women protesting in Paris exclaimed … “We need to show the world that Muhammad is the prophet of peace … not pieces!”
*

The Jewicidal Left

Jew hating Jews for Obama:

The organizers of the anti-Iran rally near the UN on Monday have decided not to allow Sarah Palin to speak. The Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations, the direct descendants of the court Jews who opted to protect their seats at court during the Holocaust rather than extend themselves one inch to save European Jewry – and instead actively opposed rescue efforts by other Jewish Americans – are still in the same cowardly, cringing mode. And if you go down the list, they are almost without exception liberal Democrats who support Obama. Little wonder that a Democrat who embraced Suha Arafat is kosher but a powerful Republican ally of Israel, and the next Vice President of the United States, is treif.
Under the circumstances, attending their event on Monday amounts to tacit approval of the Conference’s leftwing bias and congenital timidity. Make your own decision, but I won’t allow myself to be duped that way.

… more from Geller.
Update: On a tip from Me No Dhimmi … A Liberal monopoly on Identity Politics

“Take a Sunday drive….”

Here’s what you get when a journalist with too much disposable income gets his hands on the topic of gasoline taxes;

“Take a Sunday drive and your car emits various gases, including carbon dioxide.”

Driving about on a Sunday for recreation is one of my favourite pastimes. I sometimes start my truck and let it idle after a fill, too – just to burn off the excess.
C. Langmann introduces this helpful response, complete with peer-reviewed sources and diagrams;

The English language is one of connotation, and some words like “stupid” should be applied carefully, but when warranted, applied definitively. What Dan Gardner tries to imply in this recent article is that Stephen Harper is stupid, even though he has a degree in Economics, by flogging him with an interview with the renouned Economist, Dr. Greg Mankiw.
Stupid is defined by Websters as acting in an unintelligent or careless manner, or lacking intelligence or reason.
As the old adage suggests, “While leaving the house to call someone stupid, be sure you don’t bang your head into a mirror along the way.”

Read the whole thing – particulary if your name begins with “Dan” and ends with “Gardner”.

How Perfect For You

Political ad season is in full swing. Most ads are just variations on the same basic themes; there’s the openly low-blow approach, as in this Barrack Obama ad which takes one trivial verbal stumble by John McCain and uses editing tricks to make him appear not just infirm, but dangerously, ominously infirm, and then there’s the ol’ boilerplate ads in which a soothing voice reassures you, in a tone that’s a cross between a tampon ad and someone talking you off a high ledge, that you’re going to have a good life if you just choose the right political product.
Some ads take newer and more creative approaches and manage to pull it off. This inventive and oddly effective Conservative ad manages, through its use of music and images, to subtly, almost subliminally, evoke the biblical-scale sorrows of the last century, and the great wars, en route to addressing the prosaic issue of…tariffs. Truly an achievement.
The best ad I’ve seen this fall, though, is this one, in which John McCain offers his sincere heartfelt congratulations and best wishes to his rival on the occasion of his winning the Democratic Presidential nomination. At first glance, it’s nothing but pure sweetness and decency, a Hallmark Card of an ad replete with a tintinnabulating music-box soundtrack, but on further viewing its mildly sinister tack fairly rumbles and its edges become more apparent.
There is an understated but unmistakable “by-and-by” menace lurking beneath the forthright, kindly smile. McCain’s tone brings to mind certain Irishmen — and some Scots, depending on what part of Glasgow you’ve wandered into — who (and fire up your Irish accent as you read the following) even as they’re butterin’ ya up, and tellin’ ya what a wondrous creation you truly are, are also kinda…well, threatenin’ ya’ at the same time with those very same words. An unspecified, vaguely-alluded-to inevitability mixes uncomfortably with the most heartfelt reassurances that all inevitabilities will of course be comfortable, for such a wonderful person as yourself. Aye, you’re a big strong man. Congratulations on all your success, it’s all so well-deserved; I love to see your smile and your happy, confident ways. With any luck, we’ll surely be encounterin’ each other in the days and weeks and months and years to come, and what a privilege it will always be for me.
/Irish accent.
Its loaded tone, only parsable by a certain constituency, betrays a deeply-rooted, Northwest European approach to discourse in which a full genuflection is roundly delivered in the square middle of an unflaggingly formal “you’re-not-going-to-win-this-one” procedure.
A lot of elder Chinese, too, seem to take that same subtle approach. To see it in a political ad is strange; it has a certain…commutative bloom. It’s certainly a big change from the usual “my-ass-smells-like-a-pumpkin-pie-baked-especially-for-you” paeans to the All-American axe-murderer’s own self-image one typically sees in, say, American Congressional ads.
Watch it a few times — the music gets funnier with each viewing.

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