Let’s review: the risk is not low, the virus spreads through air, and the supply chain is not ok.
What Everyone’s Getting Wrong About the Toilet Paper Shortage.
There’s another, entirely logical explanation for why stores have run out of toilet paper — one that has gone oddly overlooked in the vast majority of media coverage. It has nothing to do with psychology and everything to do with supply chains. It helps to explain why stores are still having trouble keeping it in stock, weeks after they started limiting how many a customer could purchase.
In short, the toilet paper industry is split into two, largely separate markets: commercial and consumer. The pandemic has shifted the lion’s share of demand to the latter. People actually do need to buy significantly more toilet paper during the pandemic — not because they’re making more trips to the bathroom, but because they’re making more of them at home. With some 75% of the U.S. population under stay-at-home orders, Americans are no longer using the restrooms at their workplace, in schools, at restaurants, at hotels, or in airports.
Georgia-Pacific, a leading toilet paper manufacturer based in Atlanta, estimates that the average household will use 40% more toilet paper than usual if all of its members are staying home around the clock. That’s a huge leap in demand for a product whose supply chain is predicated on the assumption that demand is essentially constant. It’s one that won’t fully subside even when people stop hoarding or panic-buying.
Related: Milk dumping has begun, processors are being hit by employee illness, and despite high retail demand, prices for all classes of feeder cattle dropped $10-20 per hundredweight. Some producers decided not to sell this past week and some cattle were passed on electronic markets. Auction volumes in the three prairie provinces were down 55 percent compared to last year. It’s the same in the UK.
Update: Food shortages in India begin
Related links and ground level observations (positive or negative) are invited in the comments.