Category: entitlement generation

The recession cometh

Yet more evidence that the marginal consumer is financially strapped.

“One of the key reasons for this is because Dollar General’s core customers are feeling the acute pressure of the cost-of-living-crisis,” Neil Saunders, retail analyst and managing director at GlobalData, said in a report Thursday.

“This has been exacerbated by cuts in SNAP payments as temporary pandemic benefits came to an end. As a result, lower-income shoppers are cutting back on non-consumable and indulgent purchases from the chain in a bid to save money,” he said.

Some other dollars appear to be in for a rough ride as well.

The trap door opens

The marginal consumer is tapped out. The real culprit is not rising interest rates, but rather the prior fall to zero percent which incentivized consumers to load up on debt that they could not actually afford.

Anecdotally, my local boat and ATV dealer tells me that sales are slumping right now.

Macy’s is warning of a spike in customers who are failing to make credit card payments, adding to the evidence of mounting financial stress on consumers.

This situation is hurting Macy’s business, driving down credit card revenue by 36% year over year and contributing to a quarterly loss, he said. Citing worsening consumer leverage metrics, Macy’s is bracing for a further increase in “bad debt” in its credit card portfolio.

 

An economy of thieves

If the economy is doing so well, why is this happening?

The sporting goods and athletic clothing seller reported second-quarter results Tuesday morning that included a 23% drop in profit, despite sales that rose 3.6% in the period. Shares of Dick’s (DKS) plunged nearly 24% Tuesday.

The company blamed shrink, the industry term for theft and damaged inventory, for its surprisingly poor earnings. Although other national retailers have also warned investors about growing theft, Dick’s is among the first to blame its lackluster quarterly financial report primarily on theft.

 

Don’t make me come up there!

There’s two ways to comply with Canada’s recent legislation regarding online news: either pay every time a user on your social media platform links to said news, or block the link and pay nothing. Meta has chosen the latter option.

The federal government’s response: We demand that you make a different choice! If you don’t, well, …. we’ll complain a lot because what else can you do when you’ve painted yourself into a corner.

The Canadian government on Friday demanded that Meta lift a “reckless” ban on domestic news from its platforms to allow people to share information about wildfires in the west of the country.

Chris Bittle, a legislator for the ruling Liberal Party, complained on Thursday that “Meta’s actions to block news are reckless and irresponsible.”

Trucking blues

Buried in the stories about the collapse of Yellow Trucking is an even bigger, but unfortunately commonplace story, about how taxpayers poured billions into an organization and received a 100% loss for their efforts.

If you are a taxpayer, you know all this, your government being a 29.6 percent shareholder of Yellow and all. The Trump administration’s Coronavirus, Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act dished out $500 billion to businesses, states and municipalities as a result of the coronavirus. Yellow Corporation received $700 million of the $735.9 million set aside for national security loans.

Once the loan was funded, Yellow executive officers and directors received stock options and Yellow stock went up ten times in price from the bailout to the end of 2021.

The Children Are Our Future

Welcome to the age of overeducated underachievers;

Although it’s of course true that many, perhaps most, of the winners in the modern economy are highly educated, there are still some who have succeeded without educational credentials and an even bigger share that are failing in spite of them.

The latter group—let’s call them “overeducated underachievers” — strikes me as crucial for understanding growing pessimism about the future, the rise of populism, and the anger and frustration that we’re increasingly seeing manifest itself in our politics. […]

They’re the ones who “did everything they were expected to” — including obtaining a university or college credential — and yet haven’t realized the payoff. In Canada, for instance, they’re earning on average 41 percent less than those in non-working-class jobs and, depending on where they live, struggling to afford rent and other basic costs. The promise of the so-called “democratization” of educational access has failed to fully materialize for them and their families.

There’s a strong case in fact that while there have been significant benefits to expanded access to post-secondary education, they’ve come with these underestimated costs that we’re only now starting to understand. Cultural norms and public policies in favour of what Goodhart calls “peak head” has devalued non-cognitive skills, eroded academic standards, and contributed to credential inflation in the job market. Put bluntly: there are people with advanced degrees who shouldn’t have them and the market has had to adjust to account for them.

A zero percent interest miracle

The fact that the idea of parking interest rates permanently at zero gets any academic attention at all, is in itself worrisome. It’s no secret that this was an idea embraced by none other than John Maynard Keynes, who thought it would be the key to effortless financing of whatever projects a central planner might dream up.

If the interest rate were permanently zero, the government’s fiscal levers of taxation and spending would be the alternative means of controlling inflation.

Naturally, this nonsense goes hand in hand with direct central bank control of individual spending decisions:

Also worth mentioning is the current push by the Bank of England towards central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), in which buyers and sellers would transfer money directly without having to use the banking system. This could enable central banks to encourage or discourage certain spending in more targeted ways, for example by restricting what can be spent by people in certain areas or income brackets. If inflation was controlled using only fiscal levers, CBDCs could be used to reinforce this policy.

The central bank casino

It’s not news that many of the industries of the Western world have gone overseas since the late 1970’s, thus creating the “rust belt”. What’s largely missing is a proper understanding of why this happened and how that trend is accelerating, with so many companies now involved in what can be accurately termed as “financialization”. With central banks pricing capital at an absurdly low cost and governments happy to cover any and all losses, what could possibly go wrong?

At the heart of the issue is government intervention designed to provide the investor class with greater gains and fewer losses.

Yet the prevailing “wisdom” among policymakers and central bankers is that ever greater amounts of financialization—propped up by repeated government interventions — are somehow just a natural and inescapable feature of the market economy. With each new bubble and each new crisis, the central banks become ever more willing to try risky and “nontraditional” interventions, whether it’s negative interest rates, the abolition of physical cash, or ever larger purchases of near-worthless assets. Thanks to decades of government-fueled financialization, the stakes climb ever higher.

Real estate woes

Why worry? There’s no problem here that can’t be solved with infinite amortization.

“…he owns 8 condos in toronto. half of them he told me are negative geared.”

Drunken policy

My advice for any company investing in Quebec? Get out, while you still can.

A Quebec trucking company has been ordered to reinstate a driver who was fired after she drank at least nine beers before she lost control of her truck on a Pennsylvania highway.

Labour arbitrator Huguette April says the driver’s drinking was from alcoholism — a disability — and that trucking company Groupe Robert should have made a reasonable accommodation for her.

The Zimbabwe solution

Judging by the popularity of the concept of expropriation without compensation in South Africa, I suspect that the Zimbabwe experience is just around the corner for them, keeping in mind that the idiot tweeting this is actually a member of their parliament. Other than the collapse of industrial agriculture and widespread starvation, what could possibly go wrong?

 

Keep on truckin’…. or not

Collapsing margins in the freight business and a union which can’t grasp this fact  may be claiming another victim, but there’s more to it than just a slowdown in the economy. The article is unclear as to whether Yellow’s pension fund is defined benefit or not, but in any case decades of falling interest rates are turning pension obligations into a millstone around the necks of a lot of companies.

Yellow Corp. (NASDAQ: YELL) has failed to make its required pension contributions for June and is planning to withhold payments for July. The pension funds, pension accruals and health care coverage for workers will suspend on Sunday, according to a statement by the Teamsters.

The Teamsters union has threatened to strike by Monday if this is not resolved and the pension contributions remain in default. The company owes $50 million, a large sum for a company in financial distress. Yellow currently has in excess of $100 million in cash reserves, according to an 8-K filed on July 7.

Subjective considerations

Why doesn’t everyone just fake reality on my behalf? All the cool kids are demanding it these days.

Maxing out the credit card

This is like an arsonist drawing attention to an increase in the number of fires in his neighborhood. It’s not really the case that everyone saved more during the pandemic, but rather that they borrowed more and felt wealthier because of it. This was particularly true of nearly every level of government. Nonetheless, I fully expect that the magic of infinite amortization will solve the problem of debt default going forward, right?

A former Bank of Canada economist says the trend of rising household insolvencies could spell trouble for the broader economy down the line.

Insolvencies dropped during the pandemic as people saved money, but Charles St-Arnaud, chief economist with Alberta Central, told BNN Bloomberg that the trend is now being “reversed completely,” with insolvencies up compared with 2019 – and the rise has been much faster than expected.

 

Going for broke

We’re now approaching the point where the bill for all the pandemic Keynesian stimulus is coming due, and the marginal consumer is having a tough time paying it.

Insolvencies, which include bankruptcies and proposals to renegotiate loans, rose 12.3 per cent in May from April and are up 30.9 per cent from the same time last year on an adjusted basis, according to data from Innovation, Science and Economic Development Canada. They are now at their highest level since the start of the pandemic…

 

Diversity Hiring Comes Of Age

Complex Systems Won’t Survive the Competence Crisis

At a casual glance, the recent cascades of American disasters might seem unrelated. In a span of fewer than six months in 2017, three U.S. Naval warships experienced three separate collisions resulting in 17 deaths. A year later, powerlines owned by PG&E started a wildfire that killed 85 people. The pipeline carrying almost half of the East Coast’s gasoline shut down due to a ransomware attack. Almost half a million intermodal containers sat on cargo ships unable to dock at Los Angeles ports. A train carrying thousands of tons of hazardous and flammable chemicals derailed near East Palestine, Ohio. Air Traffic Control cleared a FedEx plane to land on a runway occupied by a Southwest plane preparing to take off. Eye drops contaminated with antibiotic-resistant bacteria killed four and blinded fourteen.

While disasters like these are often front-page news, the broader connection between the disasters barely elicits any mention. America must be understood as a system of interwoven systems; the healthcare system sends a bill to a patient using the postal system, and that patient uses the mobile phone system to pay the bill with a credit card issued by the banking system. All these systems must be assumed to work for anyone to make even simple decisions. But the failure of one system has cascading consequences for all of the adjacent systems. As a consequence of escalating rates of failure, America’s complex systems are slowly collapsing.

Grab a coffee.

Retirement blues

If anyone thought that Covid lockdowns and the war in the Ukraine were not only costless but actually economically beneficial, you need to reconsider that point of view. Throw in years of zero percent interest rates which have devastated retirement earnings and you now have a lethal combination.

“With living costs rising, I have to work permanently,” she says. “I have three small occupational pensions totalling about £1,000 a month, and my husband has a teacher’s pension, but we can’t afford to live without working. When our energy bills rose to £400 a month, there was no choice but to go back.”

Apart from feeling the pinch because of high inflation, the couple are having to clear debt they accrued during the Covid lockdowns, when they had to financially support their three grownup children. “They are all living in or around London, and two of them were made redundant during the pandemic. We took out a £10,000 loan to help out with their rent and other things for four, five months. I’m working to pay that off, and we still help out now and again. ”

 

Dollars and gender

In the market for a sex change? Ontario has decided that it has other priorities for health care spending, so some of the previously tax funded services associated with sex changes will no longer be covered by the province. Naturally for the Red Star, they don’t make it clear as to what services are still covered. Presumably, we’ve still got a ways to go before taxpayers are not compelled to fund cosmetic surgery at all.

Toronto based Connect-Clinic, which shut down in December of 2022 after OHIP fees for virtual-only medical services were lowered, launched a new online venture Wednesday under the banner Foria Clinic.

The online clinic will provide virtual services such as gender-affirming hormone therapy and surgical referrals to patients throughout Ontario.

 

Starflation

How much would you pay to see a Taylor Swift or Beyoncé concert? I couldn’t be bothered in any event but price doesn’t seem to be an object for quite a number of concert goers these days. I’ve heard similar things from a friend who looked into purchasing tickets for an Adele concert in Vegas recently but changed his mind after seeing the prices.

A perusal of ticket-purchasing sites makes the sticker shock clear. On reseller Stubhub, the cheapest seat for a July Taylor Swift show in Seattle is $1,200; tickets for an August Mexico City show cost $500 each.

“I had to get nine phone numbers for three different accounts on Ticketmaster under three different credit cards,” said Joel Barrios, a Beyoncé fan in Los Angeles. He spent about $7,000 on three U.S. shows for himself and friends – as well as another $6,650 for several shows in Europe.

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