A Niall Ferguson smackdown.
h/t Ward
Nic Robertson’s 0-for-2: “Well, my message to President Obama is just, “We started this revolution without any outside help, and we are going to finish it also without any outside help.” (h/t Lev)
You say you want a revolution?
Another consistent feature is that revolutions take place, not in the most repressive of tyrannies, but more typically in despotisms whose grip is already loosening, and where both a degree of economic prosperity and liberalization are already taking place. The administration of Louis XVI was the most liberal and reformist ever known in France; it attempted to introduce a free market system and break the economic hold of the aristocracy over the masses. Similarly, Tsar Nicholas II alternated between harsh repression and encouraging the Duma to share power with the crown; during his reign, the Russian economy was one of the fastest growing in Europe, reaching levels in agricultural production that Nikita Krushchev conceded in 1956 had still not been equaled.
In the case of Egypt under Mubarak, the outbreak against his rule was preceded by a period in which modest progress was being made in Egypt’s economic prospects and standard of living, due to a small amount of oil, a lot of tourism, and increasing foreign investment. This year the economy grew by a robust 6%. Ditto in Iran, where the Shah was committed to political and economic Westernization and secularization. Ditto in Russia, where Gorbachev’s toppling of the Soviet regime was preceded by the Brezhnev era in which Russians were finally tasting some solid economic benefits.
Common to these cases is Toqueville’s thesis of the revolution of rising expectations. Fitful and semi-effective autocratic reformers whet people’s hopes for a better future, but cannot satisfy the expectations they arouse. Their own semi-effective reforms unleash the forces that overthrow them. Then the liberal reform regime is in turn swept away by the true revolutionaries, who do not want a liberal “bourgeois” revolution like the American revolution, but want to revoke both traditional authority and the half-completed modernization in favor of a populist collective.
During the flash point that signals the downfall of the autocrat, there is often a moment of truth when it becomes clear that the autocrat’s own allies, especially the military, will not take the extreme measures necessary to crush the revolt, and tell the autocrat they will not fire on the people. This happened with Louis XVI, the Tsar and the Shah. In the case of Gorbachev, he himself refused to use the Soviet military and security services to halt the out-of-control pace of his own reforms. And now Mubarak, whose generals told him the same thing, finally easing him out. In contrast, determined tyrannies like the Soviet Union under Lenin and Stalin will methodically kill tens of thousands of people until rebellion is crushed (for example., the Kronstadt rebellion). Currently, Syria exudes the silence of the grave as popular uprisings flair nearby, a sign of how grimly effective its tyranny is. And, since there is no television footage, no one calls for the demise of this far more lethal regime.

