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Not surprising at all.
No doubt most of you have already seen this, but in case you have not, there is a considerable amount of mob confrontation between pro-Mubarak supporters and anti-Mubarak groups going on in Cairo this morning and the army is just watching.
There is way too much negativism about the ability of an emerging middle class in Egypt to make some of the right choices. The choice for decades had been limited to Mubarak or the Brotherhood, now there are more options.
Although Iraq is not yet Denmark, it is way better than Saddam and his Sons ruling for life. Iraq is the model, that can be done in Tunisia and Egypt if ordinary citizens fight for it and we help them a bit with their core economic problems which is what is driving change (the Islamists are not driving this).
The pro-government demonstrators are now showing the anti-government protesters what democracy is all about.
Civil disobedience is a wonderful thing until someone in the opposition runs you over with a camel or hits you on the head with a rock.
After about 3 weeks with no job, food,
or water, most protesters will go home,
Ask Obama/USA for stimulus,
and watch the internet..
Everybody is fooling themselves that Iraq and any of the Muslim countries are on roads to democracy. Theocracies,yes.
Sharia law is not compatible with democracy.
“Democracy doesn’t work without strong civil rights”. Thomas Paine
Silly question of the day:
I see masses of people protesting with nary room to swing a cat, yet I have yet to see a porta-potty. After 8 hot days, do you think there would be a smell in the air?
Just askin’
Islam, is not compatible with democracy. It does appear that some islamic countries have had a democracy, but then the choices available to these people are limited by the religion and cultural shackles chosen for them by their parents, with no real alternatives available. Was life under Mubarck difficult? oh well.
If democracy comes to Egypt, what happens when a majority votes for idiocy?
First – kate – nice photoshoped picture. Except you used a hebrew font for your words- a bit strange.
I agree with nomdeblog – ‘there is way too much negativity about the ability of the Egyptian people to make some right choices’. It’s incredible, the view that so many here hold of these people – rather akin to the view held long ago of jews, blacks and women…all ‘unfit for democracy and needing to be constrained by authority’.
And, also, the core causality is not Islam- it’s the economic situation in Egypt and the ME.
Now – just as what some of the protesters were worried about – Mubarak is fighting back. He’s sending his thugs into the streets to foment violence. The original anti-Mubarak demonstrations were incredibly peaceful. But Mubarak is attempting to foment violence so that he can call for military rule..and continue his totalitarianism. After all- he’s ruled by edict for 30 years, and the so-called parliament has been suspended for a year over the last..ah..elections.
CNN reported that some of the pro-Mubarak protesters said that they were, as public employees, forced to demonstrate for Mubarak. And that’s what Mubarak is planning to do; foment riots and crush the people.
Like Texas Canuck, I have also noticed the lack of washroom facilities. All I can say is I am glad I am not in the middle of that. It must be a horribly smelly place.
Where did you get this picture, Kate? There’s no indication of who took it or when. It looks like a photoshop product to me.
Texas Canuck
I was thinking the very exact same thing, just didn’t have the temerity to express the thought in print.
Obviously revolution is a good way to start a democracy. It worked in England, well except that the round heads were hated and driven out and the king brought back. It worked in the US, well except for that nasty bit of driving the UEL up into Canada. It worked in France, well if you don’t mind all the beheadings and stuff and that little guy who thought he was an emperor and set out to get and empire. It worked well in Russia, well if you don’t mind the untold suffering and deaths of millions imposed by Papa Joe and his heirs. It worked well in Iran. Well except for all the people being killed and such and the people fleeing the country. But other than that revolution is a great way to….
“It’s incredible, the view that so many here hold of these people – rather akin to the view held long ago of jews, blacks and women…all ‘unfit for democracy and needing to be constrained by authority’.
So if we voice any concern about what’s going on we are now Nazi’s or KKK members? I think the concern about Muslim rule is based on other country’s that have Muslim rule. To try and have a conversation about Egypt right now and not mention Sharia law or the Muslim Brotherhood would border on the moronic.
Texas Canuck…… They would never notice a change in the stink.
It might not be photo-shopped. Could be those Egyptian youths are regular SDA readers who appreciate Kate’s sense of humor…No?
ET, I see from your photoshop comment that you’re a bit more sophisticated than I, and I say that with respect. I do, however, disagree with your optimism regarding Egypt’s “emerging middle class”. I think this affair will end in a partnership between the Egyptian military and Islamic theocrats, and Israel will be the scapegoat for the resulting economic failures. But we shall see.
Texas Canuck and others who are commenting on the lack of rest room facilities in the Arab world.
I doubt there are many in their homes either. Perhaps that is the problem with Muslims, their pants are full of crap.
They all need to have their diapers changed.
By the way … there is no emerging middle class in the Middle East. That would require some sort of free enterprise capitalist society where educated men and women are free to create businesses and advertise etc. That does not happen there. Religion and death happen there.
Over here are experiencing a submerging economy because we are giving too much money people who don’t work to millions who don’t event live here.
RSP – my points are objective; that is, I’m looking at societies as ‘organic systems’.
The system consists of: (a) the material productive capacities (resources, soil, climate, water)and population size. Then, (b) a social organizational structure emerges to mould all this together…so that the population has both metabolic and reproductive strength; that is, the people live well and continue into the future. They develop (c) a set of normative beliefs and behaviour that validate and confirm both b and a.
Parts a and b and c are intimately entwined. Most people focus only on ‘c’, and consider that what drives the society is simply ‘c’…the ideology. No….you have to consider the whole complex structure.
So, my view is that when part a, the population, reaches a critical threshold in the multimillions, and when the economy must be industrial to support that size..then, the political branch must enable that economy to be productive.
The only political mode that can promote an industrial economy that is ‘growth-oriented’…is democracy. Because it empowers the productive part of the population, the middle class, who are engaged in private businesses.
So- given these basic axioms – I conclude that democracy is not a choice in the ME but a necessity. Others here on this blog reject this conclusion. They focus only on part c, the ideology, and insist that it is the causal agent of societal structures..and consider that Islam prevents a democratic system from emerging.
Certainly Islam is anti-democratic; its axioms are based around a tribal rather than civic structure, it rejects individualism in favour of the group; it rejects reason, science…and is actually a basic ideology of all tribal/feudal societies.
But the West moved out of tribalism – it took over 400 very violent years – but the West had, also, no choice. Its population had moved beyond the carrying capacity of a tribal organization. It had to intellectually reject the old two-class system, reject its own rejection of reason, permit the devt of an educated middle class..etc.
So- my view is that it must occur in the ME. Again, democracy is not a choice. It’s a necessity when your population reaches a certain size and when your economy is industrial. It doesn’t happen in the nanoseconds that TV events do; it takes time and friction. And Islam, dogma as it is, will have to change.
But, to view the arab/persian peoples of the ME, as we used to view blacks, jews, women..as beings incapable of reason and self-government, well, I think that view on our part has to change.
My concern now, is how Mubarak, that thug, is moving in his thugs to foment violence on the streets, so that he can move in the army and take over and crush the demonstrations. Sure, he says he’ll leave in September; but he was planning to anyway. The probleml is, he’s planning to set up a dynastic successor whom he’ll continue to control. The key now – is the army. Who will they support – Mubarak or the people?
Thank God Iraq isn’t Denmark! It’s hardly a model of freedom, unless you think the nanny state is the answer.
MSM’s narrative seems to be the exact opposite of what the people think, watching videos at various Non-MSM outlets it’s clear the people do not want the Muslim Brotherhood in charge in fact they call Alwhateva “The US’s puppet”. So we in the west think the MB is acting on behalf of Iran and in Egypt the people think they are acting on behalf of the US. Be nice if the MSM told us the truth instead of what they deem to be the truth.
RSP, it can’t “end” that way. A theocracy cannot feed and employ 80 million people, so a theocracy or totalitarian regime will keep collapsing until the Egyptians get it right. This is an economic driven problem of a Middle East population explosion still trying to govern itself with tribalism; as if they were small nomadic groups herding goats.
This is about economics and demographics; it is not about Islamists who are simply like our own parasitical progressives attached to a host. When the host collapses so do the parasites.
Abe “Religion and death happen there”. Actually not much death does happen there. At the beginning of WWII, Egypt was 16 million people, now it is 80 million. That is the problem throughout the region. There are too many people for tribalism; it will not work without empowering a middle class and a governance system that offers some kind of capitalism to create jobs.
This could get really ugly before it gets better but there is no way Islamists can control this.
Well, I for one always thought Turkey was going to be the first to go. Just goes to show how hard these things are to predict. It is going to be Islamic Republics all the way from Malaysia to the Mediterranean.
But the West moved out of tribalism – it took over 400 very violent years…
Well, yes, ET. But we’re not speculating on what will happen 400 years from now. We’re trying to anticipate the next 2-3 years, no?
Mohammed’s Boys in the ‘hood.
The death of AlMoh’s brothers.
Murder he wrote.
Murder your brothers.
Now, pray.
Mohammedanism: a death cult.
Al-Reuters:
“Yet pockets of peace remained — including around small groups who, amid the violence, dropped to their knees and faced Mecca. The time had come for daily prayers.”
“Click to play”.
Egyptian Mohammed (9/11) Atta’s ghost:
“They are all Egyptians.”
…-
“A scene of violent chaos in Cairo”
“Cairo, Egypt (CNN) — It started with verbal abuse, and then — perhaps inevitably — it got physical.
Supporters of Egypt’s President Hosni Mubarak flooded into Cairo’s Tahrir Square Wednesday after the president’s opponents dominated the scene for more than a week.
Separated at first by barriers, the rival demonstrators exchanged insults, then began throwing anything they could find at each other, including shoes, rocks and sticks.
Suddenly the barriers fell. People surged toward each other in a chaotic scene that conjured images of a revolution.
Some injured protesters fell. Others stumbled through the crowd. Blood streamed down one man’s face.
The wounded were carried away, bleeding from gashes. It was impossible to tell from visits to a makeshift clinic which side was faring worse, CNN’s Ben Wedeman said. He said simply: “They are all Egyptians.”
http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/meast/02/02/egypt.protests.scene/
Ditto to nomdeblog.
ET, I was a bit surprised by your comments. You have a lot of knowledge about the political and economics of the ME but your understanding of the depths of the religious nature of the Muslims is what is missing in your narratives.
You don’t seem to understand that the establishment of a hard-line Muslim theocracy is the goal here, not an economic one. Democracy is not the goal, it is a code words which the Muslims are using as western double-speak to say the majority of people have spoken and then bring in the very repressive and brutal Shia for of Islam. Just like letting asking the devil in for tea and he walks in with his suitcase.
These people don’t realize what they are asking for. Slavery!
And neither do you.
Rob C
[……..Texas Canuck…… They would never notice a change in the stink……]
Pretty much…..the ME is like India and Pakistan…..the sights and SMELLs…..usually raw sewage.
I have little or no confidence in any:
“emerging middle class”. in Eygpt.
90% iliteracy….
The army has strived hard to establish some sort of literacy in it’s ranks…out of necessity….illiterates cannot operate and maintain modern weapon sytems….without the ability to read manuals.
This sets up a de facto caste system….the Air Force is the most literate…..resulting in a more or less feudal society rather than tribal.
Feudal with the military elite occupying the upper levels…..still a 2 class society with little or no middle class, mostly civil servants.
The literate are above the salt…..
For those who believe Islamic fundamentalists and democracy can co-exist, check out this Pew poll and see how incompatible they are.
http://pewglobal.org/2010/12/02/muslims-around-the-world-divided-on-hamas-and-hezbollah/
glacierman – the people are not asking for a theocracy. There is absolutely no evidence for it; those demonstrations aren’t asking the govt to install hard-line Islam. They are asking for freedom.
Most certainly there are hardliners in Egypt, just as there are in our own nation. But that doesn’t mean that the people want such a rule over them.
You insist that the people demonstrating for freedom are actually not doing so; they are ‘speaking in code’ and really want a hardline theocracy. Prove it. Why on earth should they speak in code – if that theocracy is what they all want???
Yes – I agree with nomdeblog. And note that not only is there this exponential rise in the population in a few decades but the current median age is only 24! Where is the economic infrastructure to support them?
RSP – yes, it will happen much faster in the ME than the West’s 400 years! That’s because democracy, as an intellectual set of ideas and also, as an operational model, already exists in many places around the world. No need to ‘invent the wheel’ again, so to speak.
sasquatch – are you serious? Only 10% of the Egyptian population is literate? Odd. The CIA World Factbook says that 71% are literate. Where did you get your data?
Oh – and as for the raw sewage – what does this say about a government that hasn’t developed the infrastructure to deal with it? Where is all their money going – the billions from the US, the income from the Canal, tourism, …the high taxes certainly aren’t going into social infrastructures.
Oh, and just an interesting snippet. Canada has the second highest oil reserves in the world, behind Saudi Arabia and higher than Iran or Iraq (3 and 4). The US is 14th, just after China.
ET wrote: But, to view the arab/persian peoples of the ME, as we used to view blacks, jews, women..as beings incapable of reason and self-government, well, I think that view on our part has to change.
End quote:———
So you are losing the debate thus you throw out the usual race bating lingo. The only person bringing race into this debate is you ET time after time after time. Political Islam is the opposite side of the coin of Nazism, it has no race only creed and tyranny.
ET ”
You insist that the people demonstrating for freedom are actually not doing so; they are ‘speaking in code’ and really want a hardline theocracy. Prove it.”
The removal of the Shah of Iran in the ’70’s and the festering cesspool that Iran now is, spreading their hate and rule of Sharia law.
Now you prove to me that your reasoning in a purely economic one!!!
glacierman “your understanding of the depths of the religious nature of the Muslims is what is missing in your narratives. “
I think ET is bang on and the point you are missing is that religion is derived from ecology and economics not the other way around. The Islamists are from a nomadic background, their pastoral economic way of life led to their religion/culture not the other way around.
The whole ME would have collapsed by now under Islamic/tribalism but we in the West prop it up with Oil funding. Or in the case of Egypt, it could not possibly have arrived at 80 million people under a thugocracy but we prop it up from the outside with $2 billion in aid, our ships funding the Suez, tourism.
If we simply stop propping up bad ideas in the ME and instead start to “ drill drill drill for ourselves”, then the Islamists will collapse. As would the parasites on the CBC and the Bloc both collapse, if we were to stop funding them with our capitalist success.
People are equal, all are capable of democracy, but cultures are not equal. We need to stop the Kumbayah cultural relativist crap and let some cultures die out, including some right here at home.
The fact is that 100’s of millions of people cannot support themselves unless capitalism is allowed to happen and capitalism can’t happen in an Islamist state.
On the bright side, Anderson Cooper was punched in the head 10 times (he counted!) although I don’t know if he called anyone in the crowd “teabagger” to spur the attack.
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/anderson-cooper-attacked-mob-egypt-95628
A commenter at Ace’s posted this just yesterday. (I think it was “iknowtheleft”.)
Bloodless & Deathless in Cairo.
Mohammed’s rapture: Deathless.
AlMoh’s Boys in the ‘hood.
No deaths: leftist MSM reports.
The corpses have been raptured, swept up to AlMoh’s paradise.
Egypt’s Mohammedans: Paving the Way to a Mohammedan totalitarian theocracy.
…-
“Violence in Cairo”
“Mubarak Supporters Clash with Opposition Movement”
Violence in Cairo: Mubarak Supporters Clash with Opposition Movement
Streetfighting has broken out in Cairo between Mubarak supporters and opposition protesters. Dozens of people have been injured and there are reports of shots being fired.”
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,743191,00.html
To illustrate to friends who’d never spent time in the M.E. I used to relate this fantasy:
Suppose you’re talking about gravity, and as an example of its effects you hold a 5lb weight in one hand and then release if – “I know, I know” shouts one member of the audience, “It flies up to the sky!”
“No, no” you start to say, but you’re drowned out by numerous voices shouting “Yes, yes, I have myself seen this happen”.
(Up is down and down is up.)
Release IT, not release if.
rose – when commenters talk about a whole set of people as a homogeneous set, all alike, and all ‘ignorant, brutes, thugs, incapable of reason and democracy’ – then, such comments are indeed racist. So I’m justified in using that analogy about the comments here. How else would you describe a situation when people describe a whole set as homogeneous – and all – essentially degenerates? Hmmm?
It doesn’t mean I’m losing the debate, for no-one debates on the key issues of: the economy and the population and the societal structure. It’s all about: ‘they are all ignorant brutes’.
glacierman – I don’t see how the removal of the shah in Iran..and current state of Iran, means that the people in Egypt, right now, are ‘speaking in code’ and really want instead of Mubarak, a theocracy. By the way – how would you describe the green movement and demonstrations in Iran of a year ago – a desire for more theocracy?
My reasoning is economic and demographic. I’ve given my outline above. The Egyptian population, as nomdeblog also pointed out, is the fastest growing in the region, and has morphed from 33 million in 1970 to over 80 million now. In 1980 it was 42 million..and has doubled since Mubarak took over. And has the govt set up the economic infrastructure to support this massive change? No.
Housing, waste management, education, job infrastructure – are all below necessary levels.
The country has few reserves; its production of oil and gas serve primarily for its own needs. It imports twice as much consumer goods as it exports; that is, it is unable to feed its population and has not developed a middle class service economy that can provide funds to import more goods.
The govt, instead of promoting small and medium businesses, focused on energy sources, Suez Canal tolls and tourism and massive aid from other countries. Oh, and its defense industry is very large. Notice that these are all public rather than private economic systems, filled with waste, corruption..and..out of reach of the majority of the population. Besides the CIA facts, you might be interested in the link below.
http://countrystudies.us/egypt/3.htm
Essentially, this economic agenda has left the majority of the population – and it’s a young population, in poverty and above all, with no future.
Well at least the women are all at safe at home, because I see only men in the saquare.
Could it be the smart young men are at home as well?
Typo – square
Interesting discussion.
FKA Gord hits it for me. If Egyptians do not somehow vote for government with strong civil rights then what they’ll end up with is something like Iran or Pakistan.
The MB area dead set to make sharia the law of the Egypt, and sharia is the antithesis of personal freedom. The very worse thing that can happen is giving the MB even greater power.
But, like the West Bank-Gaza Arabs voting for Hamas, if the Egyptians vote for MB then they will have to live with them. If they do then I will not have the slightest pity for them as the MB turns Egypt into an even bigger shyte hole.
andy canuck – yes, that’s a nice analysis of the difference between a culture focused around the individual and one focused around the group (personal guilt vs collective shame). The West moved into the ideology of ‘sin’ and it is indeed, an individual responsibility.
However, the point is, ideology and cultures are not genetic. They are intellectual constructs, made by man and changeable by man. The West changed from its focus on collectivism and shame into individual responsibility…and so can the current set of collectivist cultures.
But – what is the base of such a set of beliefs? It’s the economy. The West had to change and enable individualism, because its technology and ways of life could not support its own massive population increases in the 13th-16th centuries. It had to allow innovation and individual entrepreneurship. So too, the same problem is now the situation in the ME.
And, as nomdeblog points out, we in the west have enabled them to remain frozen in the old tribal ways, by our constant aid. We’ve been helping them stay frozen, and thus, we’ve even been partners in their move to fundamentalism. After all, fundamentalism is an attempt to ‘get us out of this current mess’..It’s a mistaken belief that If Only We Were Pure, then, everything will get better. So – instead of sending our billions to the ME for them to ‘stay the same’…we ought to let them realize that their current economic mode…is disastrous and the people need freedom to be capitalists.
Have you all seen the video of the attack by the horses and camels? This is just strange. A year from now, will Egyptians generally feel better about their lives or worse?
Democracy and civil freedom is wasted on some people.
Apparently ET doesn’t want to look at the Pew Poll that was done last year.
http://pewglobal.org/2010/12/02/muslims-around-the-world-divided-on-hamas-and-hezbollah/
So here is a snippet….
“Among Muslims who see a struggle between modernizers and Islamic fundamentalists, majorities in Lebanon (84%), Turkey (74%), Pakistan (61%) and Indonesia (54%) side with those who want to modernize their countries; a plurality of Jordanian Muslims who say there is a struggle in their country also side with the modernizers (48%). In Egypt and Nigeria, however, most Muslims who see a struggle in their countries say they identify with Islamic fundamentalists (59% and 58%, respectively).”
“About eight-in-ten Muslims in Egypt and Pakistan (82% each) endorse the stoning of people who commit adultery; 70% of Muslims in Jordan and 56% of Nigerian Muslims share this view. Muslims in Pakistan and Egypt are also the most supportive of whippings and cutting off of hands for crimes like theft and robbery; 82% in Pakistan and 77% in Egypt favor making this type of punishment the law in their countries, as do 65% of Muslims in Nigeria and 58% in Jordan.
When asked about the death penalty for those who leave the Muslim religion, at least three-quarters of Muslims in Jordan (86%), Egypt (84%) and Pakistan (76%) say they would favor making it the law.”
Yeah….the makings of a “robust” democracy. Who are you trying to kid, ET?
“Essentially, this economic agenda has left the majority of the population – and it’s a young population, in poverty and above all, with no future.”
Posted by: ET at February 2, 2011 11:51 AM
Which makes the populace ripe to be exploited by the MB to take over the country, like the Bolshevicks in Russia, the Mullahs in Iran .
You can’t ignore politics and history in the equation ET. ET Fail.
The only “organic” part of the events in Egypt is that this still holds true “ashes to ashes, dust to dust”, the rioters on either side end up as the compost to fertilize the furor of their respective political masters.
Question for all.
When did you become such experts on Egypt?
Question for all.
When did you become such experts on Egypt?
Posted by: set you free
…………….
Not ‘experts’ perhaps, but some of us HAVE spent time in the M.E., and have exposure to the thought patterns.
Some of y’all should cut ET some slack, she’s probably going to be right in the long run.
But, in the short run let’s not forget the bloody, bloody history of Europe. We are right now living in the longest stretch of European peace (outside the Balkans anyway) that there has been in five or six hundred years.
There are some extremely rich people pouring money and arms into the Middle East to achieve the new Caliphate. They are fundamentalists, they are driven, they are without a care in the world other than their goal which is a unified Muslim world.
That’s the side in this Egypt business that is getting zero mention, the Muslim Brotherhood side.
The vast majority of Egypt is staying home right now. They don’t have a dog in the fight yet. If the fundies get some traction, the vast majority will go for them.
People think if its the mosque, Allah will keep them honest right? Who would tempt the Almighty by cheating? That’s what ignorant peasants think. That’s what they thought in Europe in the Middle Ages when the Church had all the money, and that’s what Arabs think now. Better the mosque than the corrupt a-holes like Saddam and Mubarak and whatever wankers are it in Syria.
ET is right, a unified Caliphate under Sharia would be an economic -disaster- just like the USSR, India under the Ghandis, China (which I still think is the mother of all bubbles and heading for a pin) or any other fully formed top-down centrally planned state.
Problem is, it’ll take 40-80 years, at least one major war most likely with nukes in it, and maybe a billion lives for these goofs to figure it out.
It would be nice if somebody like George Soros could read this handwriting on the wall and maybe kick Barry O in the @ss a couple real hard ones in the right direction, but I don’t see it happening. They’ve all drank the frickin’ Hate America bong water for too long.
Joke is, it wouldn’t matter if America -was- evil, a Middle East and Turkey ruled by Sharia under a new Caliphate would be SO much worse. Talk about imperialism, try a new Ottoman Empire on for size.
joey – I’ve seen and commented several times on that PEW poll – and I strongly question its validity. The poll is filled with contradictions, and gives no indication of the size nor demographic nature of the respondents (rural/urban; age; education; economics etc) nor of the questions asked. I taught methodology for years – and thus, would question both the validity and reliability of the poll.
How about such discrepancies as:
Role of Islam in politics: large
Egypt 48%
Islam’s influence in politics: positive
Egypt 85%
Now, those two questions are similar and yet yield drastically different results. Hmm.
And how about cultural identification:
Pakistan: modernization 61%
fundamentalists: 28%
Egypt: modernization 27%
fundamentalists: 59%
Now, the above ratios don’t make any sense when you consider actual realities on the ground in those two countries.
So- I don’t accept the PEW polls as valid or reliable.
Al the fish – no, given those same actualities of a young impoverished population – they can opt for economic challenges and freedom.