Category: Y2Kyoto

Y2Kyoto: A Tip From An IPCC Insider

Unsettled Science Y2Kyoto 13 Comments

Roger Pielke Jr;

A high level participant in the IPCC (purposely vague to protect their identity) has confirmed to me that the major error on tropical cyclones that I recently identified was (a) indeed a major snafu and (b) a result of claims being inserted into the IPCC outside its review process. Neither of these things should happen in an process that the IPCC promotes as the “gold standard” of scientific assessment.

The error was to claim that a change in the proportion of Category 3-5 tropical cyclones has been detected and attributed to human-caused climate change, which is contrary to both evidence and the scientific literature. Even worse, in making the false claims the IPCC confused a study of measurements of tropical cyclones with tropical cyclones, and failed to acknowledge that paper had undergone a major correction, which altered its conclusions and rendered it irrelevant.

The false claim was not caught and was ultimately elevated by the IPCC to the summary of its recent Synthesis Report where it was promoted as one of the most significant scientific findings of the past assessment cycle. You can read all of the details on the error in this post and its follow up.

The tip that I received prompted me to go back and look carefully at the evolution of the drafting IPCC AR6, which was where the mistake made. I can confirm that the tip checks out. The IPCC failed to follow its own procedures of quality control and peer review. False information made its way into the report outside of the review process and was repeatedly elevated to the highest levels of information conveyed to policy makers.

Y2KYoto: State Of Anorexia Envirosa

Climate Cult Great Reset War On Agriculture Y2Kyoto 59 Comments

In the immortal words of John Maynard Keynes: In the long run, we’re all dead.

Y2Kyoto: Hide The Decline

Unsettled Science Y2Kyoto 32 Comments

Yet again, the National Post buries the news in the financial section;

… their findings “have strong implications for trends in climate model simulations and other observations” because the atmosphere has warmed at half the average rate predicted by climate models over the same period. They also note that their findings are “consistent with conclusions in McKitrick and Christy (2020),” namely that climate models have a pervasive global warming bias. In other research, Christy and mathematician Richard McNider have shown that the satellite warming rate implies the climate system can only be half as sensitive to GHGs as the average model used by the IPCC for projecting future warming.

Y2Kyoto: Moby Sick

Alternative Subsidy CreepyJoeBiden Y2Kyoto 11 Comments

Steve Milloy;

Greenpeace launched its “Save the Whales” campaign on April 27, 1975. But in the ensuing years, Greenpeace has gone full Orwell. Greenpeace is no longer interested in saving the whales. It may actually be aiding and abetting the Biden administration and the offshore wind industry in killing whales supposedly to “save the planet.”

Since December, dozens of whales and dolphins have washed up dead along East Coast beaches, especially the New Jersey coast. There are no eyewitnesses to, and no video of, the deaths so no one knows for sure what is killing the animals.

The deaths are coincident, however, with an increase in activity by the offshore wind industry as it surveys locations to erect its turbines. These surveys include seismic testing that involves bouncing sounds off the bottom of the ocean. It is possible that these sounds impair sound-sensitive whales and dolphins in such a way that deaths can result.

Green activists certainly believed as much when the Natural Resources Defense Council sued the U.S. Navy over its sonar testing in a case that went all the way to the Supreme Court. The Greens also oppose seismic testing when conducted by the oil industry in its offshore activities.

The Biden administration denies that there is evidence that the whales and dolphins are being harmed by the offshore wind industry.

“At this point, there is no evidence to support speculation that noise resulting from wind development-related site characterization surveys could potentially cause mortality of whales, and no specific links between recent large whale mortalities and currently ongoing surveys,” says the U.S. Department of Commerce’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

And not only does Greenpeace embrace the agency’s denial, but it denounces links between offshore wind seismic testing and the whale and dolphin deaths as a fossil fuel industry-funded “right-wing disinformation campaign.”

So what’s the truth?

Once again, there are no eyewitness or video. But there is some inconvenient paperwork.

As it turns out, the federal agency has actually issued permits to the offshore wind industry to kill whales, dolphins and even seals. And not just one or two members of the species.

A currently proposed permit would allow New Jersey-based offshore wind developer Atlantic Shores Offshore Wind, L.P., , a partnership of foreign-owned wind companies, to kill 42 whales, 2,678 dolphins, and 1,472 seals.

Not very green. But it gets worse.

Among the 42 whales that Atlantic Shore Offshore Wind has been licensed to kill are 13 whales that are listed as “endangered” under the Endangered Species Act. Three whales are the North Atlantic right whale, a species federal regulators are wielding to wreck the Maine lobster and groundfishing industries on behalf of the offshore wind industry.

And this is not the only such permit. There are others already issued with more on the way. Each one allows for the killing of dozens of whales and thousands of dolphins and seals. And all this permitted killing is just for the survey phase of construction. There is the actual erection of wind turbines, and their operations and maintenance still to come.

Y2Kyoto: Foul Ball

Y2Kyoto 41 Comments

The dumbest thing you’ll read today.

In a paper published Friday in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, researchers from Dartmouth College find that rising global temperatures have led to an increase in home runs in Major League Baseball games — particularly those played in non-domed stadiums — due to reduced air density.

More than 500 MLB home runs since 2010 can be attributed to “historical warming,” the authors write. “Several hundred additional home runs per season are projected due to future warming.”

I hope to God this is a prank.

Y2Kyoto: Misinformation in the IPCC

Great Reset Y2Kyoto 11 Comments

Roger Pielke Jr;

Today, in the first of two posts, I explain how the IPCC made several misleading claims related to tropical cyclones. The IPCC’s failures are both obvious and undeniable. I will walk you through them in detail. Once again, I come to the conclusion that the IPCC needs reform. Mistakes can creep into massive assessments, to be sure, but the failures I document below are absolutely unacceptable.

Replace “unacceptable” with “intentional” and everything makes sense.

Y2Kyoto: Blunder Down Under

Climate Cult Y2Kyoto 23 Comments

Australian renewables;

Proponents of the renewables boast about how places like South Australia (SA) achieved near 100% renewable energy generation, often around the middle of the day, implying they could do it all the time. What they don’t say, because it spoils the narrative, is a lot more instructive. Look at the generation profile below of one such day. They had to keep the gas turbines on to provide inertia. These had to generate most of the load before dawn and at dusk because the wind wasn’t there. Battery provided very little. The balancing interconnectors to Victoria that allowed near 20% export or coal fired power to come in were important if not essential. Without the gas power and the Heywood line, SA would have been in real trouble.

Even on a “normal” day, the merit order in SA is akin to a switch. When the sun is out and the wind is blowing, the merit order is in negative pricing. When it’s not, prices go up, often around $400/MWh. That raises costs for the distribution companies which pass it on their customers.

It’s a long and detailed post, so do read it all.

Y2Kyoto: Facts Don’t Care About Your Models

Drill, Baby, Drill Y2Kyoto 15 Comments

From the Javier Blas’ Elements newsletter: A world still thirsty for oil

For years, energy experts modeling the impact of 2050 net zero targets on oil demand had the advantage that the deadline, and the incremental steps to getting there, were a long way off. If time proved their scenarios wrong, they’d be long forgotten anyway.

But now, those first intermediate waymarks are around the corner, and they look increasingly farfetched.

Earlier this week, BP Plc published its annual Energy Outlook, presenting three scenarios — not forecasts — for how oil demand may evolve. The Net Zero path, broadly in line with the goals of the Paris Agreement, is difficult to reconcile with current trends.

In such a narrative, BP’s model shows global oil consumption collapsing to 21 million barrels a day by midcentury, down from about 98 million today.

Ignore 2050 and focus instead on the intervening milestones, starting with 2025. In just two years’ time, BP’s Net Zero scenario sees oil demand 4 million barrels a day lower than it is now. That would mean removing the equivalent of Germany’s entire consumption in 2024 and repeating that feat again the following year.

Every oil forecast I’ve seen shows demand rising in 2023, and the few 2024 projections already published — including one from the US government — see growth continuing.

Looking further ahead, BP’s Net Zero readout suggests demand would need to plunge a further 9 million barrels a day from 2026 to 2030, falling to 85 million a day by the end of the decade. That equates to eliminating the consumption of France each year and, on the final year, striking out Italy as well.

Then the really difficult period starts. The scenario sees the world using just 70 million barrels a day in 2035, requiring the annual removal of 3 million a day. That equals the demand of Japan, currently the world’s fourth-largest consumer.

Net zero models look increasingly at odds with short-term trends. It’s possible oil demand can sink by 2050, but is it going to plummet in a matter of months and keep falling precipitously every year for the next decade? No.

You can sign up for it by email here.
Related: Australia just extended a coal mine approval to 2063.

Y2Kyoto: No Sacrifice Too Meaningless

Climate Cult Y2Kyoto 25 Comments

Via Steve Milloy;

Norway closing last coal mine in Svalbard to save planet.

Nearby Russian coal mines keep operating.

“If you don’t take coal from us, you’ll take coal from someone else where it’s not that good – the world needs to take coal for your Tesla battery.”

Meanwhile: In Q1 of 2022 alone, China approved the development of more than 8GW of new coal-fired power plants, adding to the 18GW approved in 2021.

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