Category: It’s Probably Nothing

“Reduced to Zero Overnight”

Jordan Schneider- The US government’s new export controls are wreaking havoc on China’s chip industry.

To put it simply, Biden has forced all Americans working in China to pick between quitting their jobs and losing American citizenship.

Every American executive and engineer working in China’s semiconductor manufacturing industry resigned yesterday, paralyzing Chinese manufacturing overnight. One round of sanctions from Biden did more damage than all four years of performative sanctioning under Trump.

La Nina

When is the last time the obsolete media didn’t blame global warming on something like this?

Bloomberg- Dwindling Mississippi Grounds Barges, Threatens Shipments

The logjam is coming at the worst time as the soybean and corn harvests are each about one-fifth complete and supplies will start piling up. The river woes, coupled with a soaring dollar, are destroying demand for US supplies even with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine still impeding shipments in the Black Sea.

Meanwhile, any snags in fertilizer shipments — which farmers rely on to plant crops for next year — are happening as nutrients to grow food have soared and as Hurricane Ian temporarily shut production at a Mosaic Co. fertilizer plant in Florida.

“Non-Essential”

CTV- Military’s chief orders halt to non-essential activities, focus on personnel crisis

The Armed Forces is supposed to be adding about 5,000 troops to the regular and reserve forces to meet a growing list of demands, but is instead short more than 10,000 trained members — meaning about one in 10 positions are currently vacant.

The problem has become so acute that some senior offers have started using the word “crisis” in interviews with The Canadian Press, including the commander of the navy and the officer responsible for military recruitment and training.

A gathering storm

Whatever their motivation, the Bank of Canada’s interest rate hikes are having an effect. We have yet to see if it’s a desirable effect or not. My money is on the less desirable side.

September home sales in the Greater Toronto Area were down 44.1 per cent from a year ago while sales and average prices declined sequentially from August, according to monthly figures released by the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board on Wednesday.

New listings were also down on a year-over-year basis by 16.7 per cent to 11,237 from 13,494. This was the lowest number of new listings reported for the month of September since 2002. According to TRREB, this is especially worrisome given that the stock of homes in the GTA increased markedly over the last 20 years.

Barbarians at the gates

“Gating” is a phenomenon of the financial world whereby an investment fund stops you from withdrawing your capital. Usually this is due to them having, well, having been caught on the wrong side of economic trends. You can thank zero percent interest rates for creating a lot of such incidents in the coming days.

Ron Butler is a Canadian mortgage analyst who is well worth following.

We Said, No Talking

Zerohedge- VPN Usage Surges Amid Protests, Conflict, & War In 2022

In Iran, demand for VPN downloads increased by more than 3000 percent in September, according to TopVPN100.com.

Yet, other countries too have seen surges this year. For instance, Sri Lanka saw a 17,000 percent increase in VPN downloads on April 3 2022, when social media platforms Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, Instagram and WhatsApp were banned.

The internet blackout came as the government enforced a curfew, attempting to keep protesters from hitting the streets over a disastrous economic downturn, mainly attributed to governmental mishandling, which led to major food and fuel shortages.

It’s Only Food

Fire Breaks Out at World’s Biggest Produce Market in Paris

Capt. Marc Le Moine, a spokesman for the Paris fire service, said no one was injured. The fire was brought under control and there was no risk of it spreading from the soccer field-sized warehouse, covering an area of 7,000 square meters (1.7 acres), he said.

The cause of the blaze was unknown but will be investigated, he added.

I’ve known the unknowns since the days they were torching cathedrals.

Housing Bubble 2.0

If you believe that the housing crisis of 2008 could never, ever happen again, you might just be mistaken.

Opendoor is on the hook for properties it picked up in a historically hot market. A Bloomberg analysis of Yipitdata says that as a result, the company lost money on 42 percent of its sales in August.

Opendoor’s buy-to-sale premium — the difference between the price at which it buys a home and the price it sells it for — had never fallen below 1 percent, including at the height of the pandemic, when it bottomed out at just under 4 percent. But Yipitdata cited by DelPrete show that after peaking near 12 percent earlier this year, the premium has fallen to just below zero.

 

A path to insolvency

A central bank losing money? Maybe that’s what happens when you combine Covid lockdowns and green energy mandates with years of zero percent interest rates. It’s all part and parcel of the death throes of a fiat currency.

The Bank of Canada deployed QE for the first time during the COVID crisis, flooding the financial system with the equivalent of hundreds of billions of dollars to help keep downward pressure on interest rates and to increase the capacity of banks to lend money.

An unintended consequence of that policy is that for the first time in its 87-year history, the Bank of Canada is on track to lose money for an extended period, as interest expenses on deposits climb in tandem with the benchmark interest rate, which Macklem has raised by three percentage points since March….

Protecting the Vulnerable

Just take your pills, grandpa.

CBC- Nearly a quarter of Winnipeg care home residents given antipsychotic drugs with no diagnosis

Winnipeg nursing home residents are being prescribed powerful antipsychotic drugs at an increasing rate to treat dementia and control behaviour, rather than what the drugs are meant for — to manage symptoms of schizophrenia or bipolar disorder.

Elderly patients with dementia who are treated with antipsychotics have an increased risk of death, mostly due to cardiovascular concerns and infections, according to Health Canada.

Other studies have shown the drugs can increase the risk of falls and fractures in older adults. “You almost put this person into a zombie-like state,” said Dr. Samir Sinha, director of geriatrics at Sinai Health and University Health Network in Toronto.

An “influx of admissions” to nursing homes this year after capacity was reduced during the start of the COVID-19 pandemic is partly to blame, according to the spokesperson.

However, Sinha says the problem may be linked to staffing issues at care homes. “It’s why these behaviours become more problematic for example, and harder to manage — especially when you’re short-staffed,” he told CBC.

We’re All In This Together

Armstrong Economics-  Global Recession

Neither China nor Russia are to blame for Germany’s situation. Russia was simply a diversion to draw attention away from the collapse of the European economy. Negative interest rates beginning in 2014 wiped out pension funds and proved that the central bank was not thinking long-term. COVID restrictions killed the supply chain, and Germany’s insistance in backing Ukraine eliminated what could have been a lucrative pipeline. Had the pipeline gone through, Europe would not have an energy crisis! Ever since COVID, we have witnessed a rising trend of civil unrest.

Moments in history

Economics used to be the study of human action, with particular emphasis on discovering timeless principles and laws via historical research. Modern economics, with its emphasis on mathematical models bereft of rational principles, regards past experience as nearly useless. If you can’t think in terms of principles, you will just keep stumbling from disaster to disaster.

For European utilities, the peril is more complex than Nord Stream going dry. Some are wondering if this marks a sort of “Lehman Brothers” moment for Euro power providers, recalling the days of the United States 2008 housing crisis when risky loans came due on mortgages that buyers ultimately couldn’t afford.

With prices rocketing up, brokers are making margin calls and forcing utilities to shop around for cash.

The recession cometh

As far as recession indicators go, this is far more reliable than any GDP measures.

Canada’s unemployment rate was 5.4 per cent in August, ticking up for the first time in seven months.

The economy lost 40,000 jobs last month, Statistics Canada reported in its latest labour force survey, with the losses concentrated in the public sector.

In July, the unemployment rate was 4.9 per cent, the lowest rate since comparable data first became available in 1976.

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