Hand Over Your Economy

Or the economy gets it. Is there nothing that Obama can’t do?

The Obama administration is warning Congress that if it doesn’t move to regulate greenhouse gases, the Environmental Protection Agency will take a “command-and-control” role over the process in a way that could hurt business.
The warning, from a top White House economic official who spoke Tuesday on condition of anonymity, came on the eve of EPA Administrator Lisa Jackson’s address to the international conference on climate change in Copenhagen, Denmark.
Jackson, however, tried to strike a tone of cooperation in her address Wednesday, explaining that the EPA’s new powers to regulate greenhouse gases will be used to complement legislation pending in Congress, not replace it.
“This is not an ‘either-or’ moment. It’s a ‘both-and’ moment,” she said.
But while administration officials have long said they prefer Congress take action on climate change, the economic official who spoke with reporters Tuesday night made clear that the EPA will not wait and is prepared to act on its own.
And it won’t be pretty.
“If you don’t pass this legislation, then … the EPA is going to have to regulate in this area,” the official said. “And it is not going to be able to regulate on a market-based way, so it’s going to have to regulate in a command-and-control way, which will probably generate even more uncertainty.”

Those folks who stocked up on ammunition aren’t looking so crazy anymore.
Related – “I Spent 7.2B and All I got was EPA GHG Regulation”

Y2Kyoto: Raw Vs Cooked

By now, everyone will have learned through our betters in the mainstream media that the revelations contained in the Climategate document drop are of little importance to the overall climate change debate – that the temperature reconstructions at East Anglia CRU have been duplicated by “hundreds” of other researchers. Why, thousands even!
Well, no.
Willis Eschenbach explains: there are three main global temperature datasets.

One is at the CRU, Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia, where we’ve been trying to get access to the raw numbers. One is at NOAA/GHCN, the Global Historical Climate Network. The final one is at NASA/GISS, the Goddard Institute for Space Studies. The three groups take raw data, and they “homogenize” it to remove things like when a station was moved to a warmer location and there’s a 2C jump in the temperature. The three global temperature records are usually called CRU, GISS, and GHCN. Both GISS and CRU, however, get almost all of their raw data from GHCN. All three produce very similar global historical temperature records from the raw data….

Presto homogeno!

Intrigued by the curious shape of the average of the homogenized Darwin [northern Australia] records, I then went to see how they had homogenized each of the individual station records. What made up that strange average shown in Fig. 7? I started at zero with the earliest record. Here is Station Zero at Darwin, showing the raw and the homogenized versions.

Figure 8 Darwin Zero Homogeneity Adjustments. Black line shows amount and timing of adjustments.
Yikes again, double yikes! What on earth justifies that adjustment? How can they do that? We have five different records covering Darwin from 1941 on. They all agree almost exactly. Why adjust them at all? They’ve just added a huge artificial totally imaginary trend to the last half of the raw data!

Go read “The Smoking Gun At Darwin Zero”.
And now for a Canadian connection!
Guest blogger Mark Jaeger mentioned this to me privately just after the scandal broke;

I notice in e-mail 1255477545.txt Phil Jones mentions what a good job Lucie Vincent did on homogeneity adjustments at Environment Canada.
According to GEDS Lucie Vincent is indeed still at work in Environment Canada:
The comment by Phil:
> > In the papers, I’ve always said that homogeneity adjustments are
> > best produced by NMSs. A good example of this is the work by Lucie
> > Vincent in Canada. Here we just replaced what data we had for the
> > 200+ sites she sorted out.
So – this would be something to challenge the media or interested commenters to find out. Which are these 200 stations are what were the adjustments? If Phil calls them a good job I’m interested to see how the adjustments differ from the original raw data – and if the original data still exists.

Related – Lucie Vincent explains how to adjust…

Several years ago, a database of long-term and homogenized temperatures was created for the analysis of climate change in Canada. Using a technique based on regression models, the annual means of the daily maximum and minimum temperatures were tested for “relative homogeneity” with respect to surrounding stations. Monthly and daily adjustments were derived from the regression models and were applied to create homogenized temperature datasets at 210 locations across the country. The causes of inhomogeneities were mainly due to station relocation and change in observing time.
A Second Generation of Homogenized Temperature is currently under development. The new homogenized datasets are prepared for a greater number of stations (336 stations). Series are extended to cover the period 1900-2008 as much as possible by joining the observations of two or three nearby locations. New procedures are applied for adjusting the cold bias in the daily minimum temperatures introduced by the redefinition of the climatological in 1961 at synoptic stations. Newly developed techniques based on regression models and surrounding stations are also considered for homogeneity assessment and adjustment of the discontinuities due to station relocation. The methodologies used to generate the new homogenized temperatures will be presented along with the impact of the adjustments on climate trends.

Cold bias?

Reader Tips

Welcome to the (day-early) EBD edition of Late Nite Radio. Tonight we feature some comedy gold in the form of a musical performance by Virginia O’Brien. Her unique singing style, according to IMDB, was created by accident during her show business debut:

On opening night, when time came for her solo number, Virginia became so paralyzed with fright that she sang her song with a wide-eyed motionless stare that sent the audience (which thought her performance a gag) into convulsions. Demoralized, Virginia left the stage only to soon find out that she was a sensation.

The following year a New York Times critic who reviewed her Broadway debut gave this apt description: “She convulses the audience by removing the ecstasy from high-pressure music.”
Here, in a brief but memorable appearance as a department store salesclerk in the 1941 Marx Brothers movie The Big Store, Virignia O’Brien – aka Miss Deadpan – performs a vaguely unsettling, riotously funny version of Rock-a-bye Baby. Absolutely priceless.
The thread is open, as always, for your Reader Tips.

The Sound Of Settled Science

The Sun’s Great Conveyor Belt has slowed to a record-low crawl, according to research by NASA solar physicist David Hathaway. “It’s off the bottom of the charts,” he says. “This has important repercussions for future solar activity.”
The Great Conveyor Belt is a massive circulating current of fire (hot plasma) within the Sun. It has two branches, north and south, each taking about 40 years to perform one complete circuit. Researchers believe the turning of the belt controls the sunspot cycle, and that’s why the slowdown is important.
“Normally, the conveyor belt moves about 1 meter per second—walking pace,” says Hathaway. “That’s how it has been since the late 19th century.” In recent years, however, the belt has decelerated to 0.75 m/s in the north and 0.35 m/s in the south. “We’ve never seen speeds so low.”

He adds, “This is interesting news for astronauts.”
As in, “Honey, where did we put that window scraper? I’m going to be late for the launch.”
h/t Sylvan
SolarCycle24.com

How Important Is CRU Data?

… very:

The data from the Climatic Research Unit at East Anglia University — headquarters for Climategate — is now discredited. This discredits any findings by other research bodies that relied on the Climategate data.
How much falls from Climategate, whose participants read like a Who’s Who at the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change? Not much, says CRU’s disgraced director, Phil Jones, pointing out that CRU’s data for global temperatures is but one of several datasets, all in general agreement. Besides, many argue, CRU was no linchpin to the science. The IPCC relied on numerous other sources. Throw CRU out, they say, and the IPCC’s conclusions remain unshakable.
In truth, if you throw CRU out, you’ve eviscerated the findings of the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report, the most recent and most definite opus from the UN. This is the report, received with universal acclaim in 2007, which scarily stated: “The warming of the climate system is unequivocal.”
The argument over global warming requires evidence that the globe is warming in dangerous ways. This evidence the IPCC presents forcefully in its third chapter on surface and atmospheric warming, which rests overwhelmingly on the official global temperature record of the United Nations World Meteorological Organization, called the HADCRUT3 temperature dataset.
And who produced the HADCRUT3 dataset for the World Meteorological Organization? The Hadley Centre of the UK government’s meteorological office (the HAD of HADCRUT3) and the University of East Anglia’s Climatic Research Unit (the CRU).

… keep reading.

It Pays to be Green

… in Eurabia

The EU’s emission trading scheme (ETS) may have been the deciding factor in the closure of the Corus Redcar steel-making plant – reported last week , giving the company a windfall bonus of up to £1.2 billion from the plant closure – on top of other savings.
Earlier this year, Corus – part of the Tata Group Europe – disclosed that its UK steel inventory was “close to exhaustion” and analysts are expecting improved earnings from second-half trading as production is increased to meet a rebound in demand.
Mothballing the efficient Redcar plant (with no expectations of its re-opening) thus fails to make obvious commercial sense, especially as Tata bought the plant only in 2007 as part of its strategy to give it better access to European (including UK markets).
However, revealed by The Times today (although the information has been available since June is an illustration of how valuable an alternative product – “carbon allowances” is to the group.
The paper’s story focuses on the rival ArcelorMittal group, pointing out that it has accumulated 20.8 million surplus allowances (EUAs) given to it free by the EU. With the carbon price at over £13, they are worth about £270 million. But, with additional surplus allowances up to 2012 and an increased carbon price – expected to rise to £30 – the company could have gained assets worth around £1 billion.
[…]
This, even for a company the size of Tara steel, is a considerable windfall, over and above the money it will aready make from the EU scheme. But, with a little manipulation, the company can double its money. By “offshoring” production to India and bringing emissions down – from over twice the EU level – to the level currently produced by the Redcar plant, it stands to make another £200 million per annum from the UN’s Clean Development Mechanism.

… keep reading.

Climate Apostasy

Never … I repeat never, leave the reservation:

Andy [Revkin NYT]:
Copenhagen prostitutes?
Climate prostitutes?
Shame on you for this gutter reportage. This is the second time this week I have written you thereon, the first about giving space in your blog to the Pielkes.
The vibe that I am getting from here, there and everywhere is that your reportage is very worrisome to most climate scientists. Of course, your blog is your blog. But, I sense that you are about to experience the ‘Big Cutoff’ from those of us who believe we can no longer trust you, me included.
Copenhagen prostitutes?
Unbelievable and unacceptable.
What are you doing and why?
Michael

… the details.
(Update from Kate – Mark Steyn explains…)

Climate-Gate: Leaked

“The details of the files tell a story that FOIA2009.zip was compiled internally and most likely released by an internal source.”

Some time starting in mid November 2009, ten million teletypes all
started their deet-ditta-dot chatter reeling off the following
headline: “Hackers broke into the University of East
Anglia’s Climate Research Unit….”

I hate that. It annoys me because just like everything else about
climate-gate it’s been ‘value-added’; simplified and distilled. The
contents of FOIA2009.zip demand more attention to this detail and as
someone once heard Professor Jones mutter darkly, “The devil is in the
details…so average it out monthly using TMax!”

Update: I’ve updated the original page with new information. Many thanks to all in the comments and who emailed regarding the filenames. Cheers.

As has been pointed out to me, the filenames are Unix epoch
timestamps. (Like, duh, Lance.) This invalidates certain parts
of my analysis, but doesn’t in any way invalidate my
conclusions.

The point of the original information was to provide more
circumstantial evidence pointing to the location of the email
archives. The fact that the emails are named with epoch
timestamps that relate to the creation date of the emails
actually enhances this point.

You definitely do not want multiple machines naming files
based on a Unix timestamp. It has to be a single machine because
the opportunity for overwriting a file is simply too great.

Cheers,
lance

It’s Raining Polar Bears

… in Copenhagen:

On a normal day, Majken Friss Jorgensen, managing director of Copenhagen’s biggest limousine company, says her firm has twelve vehicles on the road. During the “summit to save the world”, which opens here tomorrow, she will have 200.
“We thought they were not going to have many cars, due to it being a climate convention,” she says. “But it seems that somebody last week looked at the weather report.”
Ms Jorgensen reckons that between her and her rivals the total number of limos in Copenhagen next week has already broken the 1,200 barrier. The French alone rang up on Thursday and ordered another 42. “We haven’t got enough limos in the country to fulfil the demand,” she says. “We’re having to drive them in hundreds of miles from Germany and Sweden.”
And the total number of electric cars or hybrids among that number? “Five,” says Ms Jorgensen. “The government has some alternative fuel cars but the rest will be petrol or diesel. We don’t have any hybrids in Denmark, unfortunately, due to the extreme taxes on those cars. It makes no sense at all, but it’s very Danish.”

… keep reading.
ht
Previous

Second Thoughts About Climategate

I think we all need to take a deep breath and perhaps rethink our excitement about the CRU leaks … especially in light of the most recent stunning revelations by CTV.
It would appear that the leak was … “politically motivated”.
Oh my:

The head of Greenpeace Canada says the timing of the release of stolen climate change emails is “politically motivated” to distract people ahead of the Copenhagen summit.
“People are going to look at the solid body of scientific evidence that is out there and realize that this is really a distraction and a politically motivated one,” said Bruce Cox, the Executive Director of Greenpeace Canada.
“I think there are probably vested interests out there that knew that this would harshly — I don’t want to say derail — but would act as a distraction,” he said in an interview with CTV News Channel Sunday.
“Clearly it’s a huge distraction from what needs to be done in Copenhagen.”

A distraction? No kidding Sherlock!

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