The Sound Of Settled Science

Anthony Watts;

Dr. Richard Lindzen writes to me with news of this significant new paper saying “It has taken almost 2 years to get this out. “. Part of that problem appears to be hostile reviewers in earlier submissions to JGR, something we’ve seen recently with other skeptical papers, such as O’Donnell’s rebuttal to Steig et al (Antarctica is warming) where Steig himself inappropriately served as a reviewer, and a hostile one at that.
Hostile reviewers aside, the paper will now be published in an upcoming issue of the Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences and I am honored to be able to be able to present it here.

Link fixed, thanks all.

Y2Kyoto: War Of The Worlds

The world still has too many scientists;

It may not rank as the most compelling reason to curb greenhouse gases, but reducing our emissions might just save humanity from a pre-emptive alien attack, scientists claim.
Watching from afar, extraterrestrial beings might view changes in Earth’s atmosphere as symptomatic of a civilisation growing out of control – and take drastic action to keep us from becoming a more serious threat, the researchers explain.

Via

What, me worry?

Most of us have at some point or another encountered individuals who blithely dismiss the need for concern – or even discussion – about acts of serious malfeasance or general moral breakdown on the grounds that similar miscreant behaviours have occurred throughout history. This argumentative equivalent of a Gallic shrug, typically delivered in a didactic, Father Christmas tone, is essentially an ad hominem accusation that anyone who takes an interest in, or expresses concern about, recent events and trends has lost his sense of perspective due to a putative failure to realize that there is, in fact, nothing new under the sun.
In a Telegraph column titled “Why we need a ‘moral panic’ over last week’s riots”, Ed West takes exception to this form of indifference that masquerades as wisdom. Responding to one particular proponent of the tiresome “it’s happened throughout history, so chill out” meme, he coins a keeper of a phrase:

The Economist’s Bagehot suggests that we shouldn’t get our knickers in a twist about the riots, quoting previous examples of moral panic about social disorder, crime and youth culture to show that last week’s events are nothing new. He cites articles about “young delinquents’ in 1913, 1956 headlines about ‘rock’n’roll babies’ and even reports from 1815, and compares them with recent newspaper articles. His conclusion: we should avoid “moral panic” and a rush to “historically-illiterate judgment”.

I’ve heard this fallacy so many times that I think it really needs a name – perhaps the “moral panic fallacy“. It holds that because people in the past have expressed concern and alarm about crime and social decline, therefore such concern today must be mistaken. (emph. mine)

The data West provides suggest that modern-day concerns about crime and social decline are neither mistaken nor the result of “historically-illiterate judgement”:

In 1955…there were 500,000 crimes recorded in England and Wales; in 1992 there were 5.1 million, after which the crime statistics system was changed. Even in the 1930s indictable offences were a tenth what they are today – despite large numbers of people living in grinding poverty (actual poverty, not “BlackBerrys and £100 trainers poverty”).

Seems there is something new under the sun.

Between 1901 and 1941 there were never more than 400 recorded robberies in the whole of England each year. But in 2001/2 there were 6,500 in the borough of Lambeth alone…

Purveyors of the moral panic fallacy should try to gain a little ‘perspective’ in lieu of advising others to do so.

Further down the tube

Bret Stephens in the Wall St. Journal:

Lesson From Europe (Take 2)
No, social democracy doesn’t ‘work.’
‘The real lesson from Europe,” wrote Paul Krugman in January 2010, “is actually the opposite of what conservatives claim: Europe is an economic success, and that success shows that social democracy works.” Here are some postcards from the social democracy that works.
• In Britain, 239 patients died of malnutrition in the country’s public hospitals in 2007, according to a charity called Age U.K. And at any given time, a quarter-million Britons have been made to wait 18 weeks or longer for medical treatment. This follows a decade in which funding for the National Health Service doubled.
• In France, the incidence of violent crimes rose by nearly 15% between 2002 and 2008, according to statistics provided by Eurostat. In Italy violent crime was up 38%. In the EU as a whole, the rate rose by 6% despite declines in robbery and murder.
• As of June 2011, Eurostat reports that the unemployment rate in the euro zone was 9.9%. For the under-25s, it was 20.3%. In Spain, youth unemployment stands at 45.7%, which tops even the Greek rate of 38.5%. Then there’s this remarkable detail: Among Europeans aged 18-34, no fewer than 46%—51 million people in all—live with their parents.
• In 2009, 37.4% of European children were born outside of marriage. That’s more than twice the 1990 rate of 17.4%. The number of children per woman for the EU is 1.56, catastrophically below the replacement rate of 2.1. Roughly half of all Europeans belong in the “dependency” category on account of their youth or old age. Just 64% of the working-age population actually works…
For the U.S., none of this is yet in our cards: That’s guaranteed by the tea party that so many Europeans (and Paul Krugman) find so vulgar. But it’s worth noting what the fruits of social democracy—a world in which, as Kipling once wrote, “all men are paid for existing and no man must pay for his sins”—really are. And in the wake of the U.K. riots, the rest of his prophecy also bears repeating:
As surely as Water will wet us, as surely as fire will burn,
The Gods of the Copybook Headings with terror and slaughter return!

The full poem is here. I’m not sure that Mr Stephens quite appreciates its message.

The Leftist Nirvana in Britain: What a Nightmare!

Imagine having a dream about a bizarre farm run by Farmer Pete. His wife recently finished a book written by a socialist academic in which the author put forth the case that if you’re nice to every animal then they will be nice back to you. Pete was quite skeptical about this but his wife kept on urging him to give the philosophy a try. So he did. Being a sheep farmer, he had barbed wire fencing all around his property. He removed it all as he knew that it could hurt the wolves in the surrounding countryside. He had a couple of sheep dogs that roamed the fields, there to bark if any wolves came near. Pete brought them inside and rarely let them out. Finally, he got rid of his shotgun because, as his wife told him, such an instrument of violence was not in harmony with the philosophy they were now going to live their lives by.
What do you think would have happened next in this dream? If you woke up and found yourself to be a citizen of the UK then you would immediately realize that this dream was simply a metaphor for the nightmare that is your country today.
Professor Joyce Lee Malcolm has written a fact-filled article about the nightmare that is modern day Britain. Starting in the 1950’s the state has systematically removed the rights and the ability of law-abiding citizens to protect themselves. Here’s a snippet:

Burglars who injured themselves breaking into houses have successfully sued homeowners for damages. In February, police in Surrey told gardeners not to put wire mesh on the windows of their garden sheds as burglars might hurt themselves when they break in.
If a homeowner protecting himself and his family injures an intruder beyond what the law considers “reasonable,” he will be prosecuted for assault. Tony Martin, an English farmer, was sentenced to life in prison for killing one burglar and wounding another with a shotgun during the seventh break-in at his rural home in 1999. While his sentence was later reduced to five years, he was refused parole in 2003 because he was judged a danger to burglars.
In 2008, a robber armed with a knife attacked shopkeeper Tony Singh in West Lancashire. During the struggle the intruder was fatally stabbed with his own knife. Although the robber had a long record of violent assault, prosecutors were preparing to charge Mr. Singh with murder until public outrage stopped them.

You can listen to WABC’s John Batchelor interview Professor Malcolm here, beginning at 19:00 (about mid-way).
Note: Only an abridged version of the article may display. In that case go to Google News here and then access the article from there. It’s the one entitled “The Soft-on-Crime Roots of British Disorder”.

Educating Young Leftist Elites

Oliver Darcy is one of my new heroes. With a simple, yet brilliant stroke of genius, he has figured out a way to effectively communicate to young liberals why the fiscal policies of their Great Messiah Obama are absolutely ineffective and unacceptable.

Finally, for the first time in their lives, these left-wing students are being challenged to defend their long-held beliefs. And lo and behold, they’re instantly discovering that it’s a whole lot easier to insist upon others giving up their capital than it is to give away one’s own.
Each of them now has a choice to make: Grow up and admit that socialism and wealth distribution absolutely does not work -or- live their lives with that little voice of hypocrisy constantly haunting them.

Wrong Answers in the Gray Lady

Spend! Spend! Spend! So says the NY Times:

Wrong Answers in Britain
…
Britain’s urban wastelands need constructive attention from the Cameron government, not just punishment. His government’s wrongheaded austerity policies have meant fewer public sector jobs and social services. Even police strength is scheduled to be cut. The poor are generally more dependent on government than the affluent, so they have been hit the hardest.
What Britain’s sputtering economy really needs is short-term stimulus, not more budget cutting. Unfortunately, there is no sign that Mr. Cameron has figured that out. But, at a minimum, burdens need to be more fairly shared between rich and poor — not as a reward to anyone, but because it is right…

Negotiating tools

New Jersey Superior Court Justice Mary Beth Rogers recently issued an injunction in which she forbid striking unionized Verizon employees from:

“…dropping, spreading, throwing, placing or otherwise causing nails, glass, cinder block, spikes, feces, clubs, rocks, screws, or puncture devices of any kind, or any other object of debris to be thrown or strewn in, on, or about Verizon’s driveways, parking lots, entrances, exits, vehicles.…”

h/t.
In related news…

A Disturbing Trend

News today about a now former Saskatchewan NDP Vice President, Sherry Magnuson, being charged with Theft over $5,000 is just the latest in an odd set of problems faced by NDP Leader Dwain Lingenfelter.
After the over exuberant volunteer controversy from Dwain’s leadership campaign I would have thought that would be the last of the shady NDP officials.
Now that the person who nominated Dwain for the leadership has gotten into problems you kind of have to wonder if there’s a flame these moths are flying towards.

Blaming Canada (and Obama)

Ed Morrissey at Hot Air (will the ever-vigilant Canadian media notice?):

Buy Canadian and summer at Martha’s Vineyard?
…Obama spent $2.2 million in taxpayer money to buy specially-made buses for a three-state tour about jobs — without actually having a plan to flog. At least the $2.2 million puts some Americans to work, right? Well … North Americans, maybe…
…Bush just went back to his rather rustic and relatively humble home in Crawford, which could never be mistaken for a hoity-toity retreat for the Upper 400. Instead of going home to Chicago, Obama will rub elbows with the wealthy in Martha’s Vineyard who use summer as a verb, and the optics even have Democrats complaining…

Is There Nothing That Obama Can’t Do?

Now is the time at SDA when we juxtapose!
Carol Platt Liebau, 2009 – [W]hen he was at the HLR you did get a very distinct sense that he was the kind of guy who much more interested in being the president of the Review, than he was in doing anything as president of the Review. A lot of the time he quote/unquote “worked from home”, which was sort of a shorthand – and people would say it sort of wryly – shorthand for not really doing much. He just wasn’t around.
Donald Trump, 2011 – Here we have a country that really is going to hell in a handbasket. Let’s not kid ourselves. What’s happening to this country is horrible. All over the world, they’re talking about it. And we have a president that’s constantly — whether it’s Martha’s Vineyard or someplace else, constantly on vacation. I mean, all the time he’s on vacation!
Related: I’m like Lincoln, except when I’m like MLK. Except when he’s like Paris Hilton.

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