Author: Brian Zinchuk

About that pipeline…

47 Art Of The Deal Drill, Baby, Drill 61 Comments
Keystone XL pipe, in 2011, that was never used. Photo by Brian Zinchuk

Trump calls once again for Keystone XL pipeline to be built

There is no project. There is no company behind it. TransCanada split into two companies. The team scattered to the winds. There is no pipe, and if there is any left, do not let it be put into the ground because it’ll be so rotten it’ll leak like a sieve. And there’s no one making pipe these days at Evraz, although such a project would surely be welcome there.

And why they hell would we lock even more into the American market at a forever discount? If we’re going to build pipe, build it to tidewater.

OR – is this they key to getting Trump to back off on tariffs?

Everyone’s now talking pipelines…

Drill, Baby, Drill 48 Comments

So much for Energy East: TC Energy says U.S. offers best returns as it considers spending commitments

But the companies who originally proposed them are not interested and have moved on.

Indeed, I was not aware that the once-underused 42 inch pipe in the TransCanada mainline is now fully subscribed, meaning it is no longer available. While apparently Line 2 is out of service, there’s likely a reason. So instead of a project which had 2/3 of the pipe already in the ground, we’d be starting from scratch for a new Energy East. And TC Energy has spun off its oil pipelines business to a new company, South Bow. So we’re really back to zero on this, if not many steps backwards, compared to where we were in 2013-15.

So much for Energy East: TC Energy says U.S. offers best returns as it considers spending commitments

And Enbridge is thinking the same on Northern Gateway.

Big shift in Canadian policy needed for new energy export projects: Enbridge

If only these projects had been built a decade ago…

No joke, apparently

47 240 Comments

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Trudeau now thinks Trump is not joking about taking over Canada.

National Post

CTV News

CNN

Reuters

I think this whole tariff thing about drugs has been smoke and mirrors from the beginning, and now so, too, does the Canadian government.

TORONTO, Feb 7 (Reuters) – Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on Friday said U.S. President Donald Trump’s talk about absorbing Canada “is a real thing” and is linked to the country’s rich natural resources, a government source said.

I would like to point out I wrote a column about this two weeks ago that got little attention, likely because it was swamped by inauguration day. But it seems reality is catching up. Here’s that column, talking about the fact one should not expect a takeover of Canada to be peaceful. Now I realize a lot of people on here might think the US taking over Canada would be the best thing ever. Not everyone shares that opinion. I spoke to a few people today who used to wear a uniform and humped a pack, and they independently told me they’re basically oiling their rifles and sharpening their knives. And both pointed out that two thirds of international war crimes legislation was written as a result of Canadian actions in prior wars.

(Kate, coming in late: Setting aside Trudeau’s political Hail Mary into the end zone of Canadian paranoia, I think the jittery riflemen can stand down. Beijing has no intention of selling Canada to Trump.)

Oil and Gas 20 is the real deal

Drill, Baby, Drill 7 Comments

Brian Zinchuk: Saskatchewan’s Oil and Gas 20 high school class is everything I hoped for

Brian Zinchuk: Saskatchewan’s Oil and Gas 20 high school class is everything I hoped for.

“All-in-all, the new Oil and Gas 20 and 30 classes are among the best things I’ve seen the Saskatchewan government do for the oilpatch. Thank you to the premier, ministers who have implemented it (Jeremy Cockrill and Everett Hindley), Saskatchewan Distance Learning Centre. and all in the ministry and oil companies who made it happen. And thank you for having the courage to do so, in spite of the braying criticism.

“For parents in the oil patch whose kids might have an inkling to follow in their footsteps, I strongly urge you to sign them up for next year’s class. This year the numbers were limited. Hopefully that will be expanded. Don’t miss out.

“Our industry needed this affirmation. We matter. And our kids need a chance to learn about it.

“Bravo.”

And for those who might not have seen the initial criticism of the very idea of oil companies getting involved with a class about their industry, from last summer here’s Murray Mandryk and Phil Tank.

 

Are you sitting down?

Climate Cult Drill, Baby, Drill 17 Comments

 

Are you sitting down? Quebec open to rekindled GNL Québec gas facility project amid U.S. tariff threats. Didn’t the premier just say no, again, to Energy East? As posted yesterday, Brad Wall noticed that.
I happen to know the CEO who leased a huge amount of acreage in Quebec for natural gas development many years ago. He figures they have enough gas to provide about a third of their own needs. But the Quebec government banned fracking, and that was the end of that. I think they still might be in court over it.
Jim Warren: Environmental policy makers around the world require greater adult supervision: Canada and Sri Lanka provide examples.

Suncor Energy earns $818 million in fourth quarter, upstream production rises

Trump Executive Order and premier responses

47 Historical Events Republicans Trump 110 Comments

Trump’s Executive Order spelling out his tariffs on Canada, verbatim

Trump’s Executive Order spelling out his tariffs on Canada, verbatim

Make absolutely no mistake, these tariffs will cost American and Canadian families more: Sask Premier Scott Moe

 Alberta will continue to strenuously oppose any effort to ban exports to the U.S. or export taxes: Premier Danielle Smith

This is an attack on our country and on British Columbia families that will not go unanswered: BC Premier David Eby

Nova Scotia Liquor Corporation to remove all alcohol from the United States from their shelves: Nova Scotia premier

‘No victory dances’ in Alberta’s oil and gas sector, but relief over lower tariffs

Digging deep on royalties

Climate Cult Drill, Baby, Drill 6 Comments

It’s not often we have meaningful discussions on royalties in this province, so I’m giving it a major effort. Some think we should never touch royalties, ever. And the 2009 Stelmach experience in Alberta was telling. So is there ever a time to do it? What about for a new product, like lithium?

I FINALLY completed my vey detailed book review of Eric Cline’s book on potash royalties. Bronwyn Eyre and I discussed it with Eric last Monday for our inaugural Pipeline Online Podcast. The YouTube version is embedded in the story.

Eric Cline’s Squandered: Canada’s Potash Legacy, takes a hard look at royalties. Part 1 #saskatchewan

Jim Warren: How to govern while fiscally handcuffed: don’t follow the example of the Romanow NDP

You don’t see that very often – Saskatchewan’s wind power averaged 89% output on Jan. 24. And it hit 88% the next day.

 

If you fight hard enough, and long enough, you might win

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Shocking and refreshing, say Estevan mayor and RM reeve about coal-fired power’s possible revival.

The Estevan mayor and RM of Estevan reeve talk about what this means for the community, and are thankful the Saskatchewan government had the spine to take this action.

Six years ago, Jason LeBlanc, now the reeve of the RM of Estevan, was part of a protest convoy to Ottawa. It was protesting the government’s energy policies, including that on coal. He gave a speech in the snow, because police wouldn’t allow them on the broad, cleared sidewalks. This was about six weeks after he went toe-to-toe with Trudeau at a townhall in Regina.

Apparently, sometimes if you fight hard enough, and long enough, you might win

And the mayor, Tony Sernick, has been fighting for years to “save the bass,” because people tend to care more about critters, like fish, than they do jobs for people.

Also, here’s the statement from the Estevan Chamber of commerce.

Estevan Chamber of Commerce on coal-fired power announcement

Oh, and this was just posted on all Premier Scott Moe’s social media:

And on Friday at 1 p.m. Bronwyn Eyre and I will be talking to Minister Jeremy Harrison on the Pipeline Online Podcast, digging even deeper into this enormous story.

Coal in SK may be given new life

Drill, Baby, Drill 11 Comments
Boundary Dam Power Station

Saskatchewan is looking to rejuvenate coal, not abandon it: in-depth with Minister Jeremy Harrison.

If SaskPower carries through with rejuvenating coal, it will save three power plants, two mines, ~1000 jobs and two communities.

The significance of the shift on coal cannot be understated. When SaskPower’s then-CEO Mike Marsh came to Estevan in 2018 to say they would not be installing carbon capture technology on Boundary Dam Units 4 and 5, it wasn’t the obituary for the community, but it sure felt like the cancer diagnosis. And with no talk of carbon capture for Coronach’s Poplar River Power station, it seemed all but certain that town would whither away once the coal plant and related mine shut down by the federally mandated 2030 deadline. The January, 2025, announcement of SaskPower looking to rebuild both Boundary Dam and Poplar River, if carried out, would be a decades-long reprieve for both communities.

To extend the metaphor, effectively Estevan and Coronach just went into chemotherapy, and the results may be positive.

The implications of this change in direction, from the impending death of coal, to its possible rejuvenation, have local, provincial, national and international aspects, detailed in the story.

Watch for the Pipeline Online Podcast, Episode 2, to be broadcast on LinkedIn, Facebook and X at 1 p.m. on Friday, Jan. 24.. Crown Investments Corp Minister Jeremy Harrison is the guest, where we will delve even further into this new direction on coal-fired power generation.

X (works best): https://x.com/Pipeline_Online 

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/brianzinchuk/

Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/pipelineonlineca/

It will eventually be posted to YouTube, Apple Podcasts and Spotify

Pipeline Online Podcast launches today

Drill, Baby, Drill 3 Comments

The Pipeline Online Podcast launches Jan. 20, with Brian Zinchuk and Bronwyn Eyre as co-hosts. The inaugural guest will be former Saskatchewan Minister of Finance, as well as Minister of Industry and Resources Eric Cline re his book Squandered: Canada’s Potash Legacy, and dig deep into royalties. Should they ever be changed, not just for potash, but oil and other commodities?

My cohost, Bronwyn Eyre, is former Saskatchewan Attorney General and Minister of Justice. But more significantly, she was Minister of Energy and Resources for four years. She’s been in the room where it happened, so to speak.

Assuming everything works, you should be able to watch it live at 1 p.m., Saskatchewan time, on:

It will be recorded and posted to YouTube, Apple Podcasts, Spotify and more, where you will be able to subscribe and follow on your favourite podcast app.

The plan is to do this twice a month. It might not be a regular schedule, but we’ll do as best we can.

Also:

Cenovus, Vermilion and Whitecap sign on to support new Oil and Gas 20 and 30 high school courses

SaskPower now looking to rebuild coal plants instead of shutting them

Climate Cult Drill, Baby, Drill 49 Comments

[Pinned to top of page by Kate, scroll down for new posts]

BREAKING: Op-Ed: Government of Saskatchewan says coal has a future

Government of Saskatchewan says coal has a future. SaskPower is to look at running Poplar River and Boundary Dam Units 4,5 and 6 for decades to come, considering rebuilding them and ignoring federal coal mandate to shut down by 2030. Minister Jeremy Harrison was in Coronach and Estevan telling coal workers that coal has a future.

Here’s the op-ed he submitted exclusively to Pipeline Online, explaining what was going on. I just had a detailed interview with him which will be published Monday.

This is an enormous turnaround that cannot be understated. Saskatchewan is not giving up on coal. Estevan and especially Coronach get a huge reprieve.

And it’s a giant up yours to the feds. I’m sure Guilbeault will have a canary, and a cow. But he won’t eat the cow because my get is he’s a vegan.

Hopefully my 100+ stories talking about the unreliability of wind and solar, and imploring we shouldn’t throw away what works for what we know absolutely doesn’t work had some impact on this.

I’ll have more to write about this in the coming days. There are lots of implications. For instance, since we own the coal, we charge ourselves basically nothing for it. We do pay for the mining, however. But for natural gas, since our domestic production has dropped like a stone, most of our gas comes from Alberta. So every dollar we spend on their gas is a dollar leaving the province, never to come back (sound like Trump?) And here’s the kicker – when LNG Canada goes online, what do you think is going to happen to gas prices? Does anyone think it’ll stay around $2/gigajoule another 10 years? Or will it go up – maybe to $4, or even $6? All of a sudden, gas won’t be so cheap anymore, nor will the electrical power derived from it. But our nearly free coal will be. And once the carbon tax is gone – smooth sailing!

Also, this just happened (gradually, then suddenly…)

BREAKING: With “second carbon tax” in jeopardy, FCL and AGT pause renewable diesel and crush plant projects. The carbon pendulum is swinging, hard.

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