Geologists at Rice University have uncovered evidence that suggests Earth’s spin axis was in a different spot millions of years ago, a phenomenon called “true polar wander.” The change, which occurred sometime in the past 12 million years, would have shifted Greenland further up into the Arctic Circle – which may have contributed to the onset of the last major Ice Age, 3.2 million years ago.
The Sound Of Settled Science
Three months after his bone marrow transplant, Chris Long of Reno, Nev., learned that the DNA in his blood had changed. It had all been replaced by the DNA of his donor, a German man he had exchanged just a handful of messages with.
He’d been encouraged to test his blood by a colleague at the Sheriff’s Office, where he worked. She had an inkling this might happen. It’s the goal of the procedure, after all: Weak blood is replaced by healthy blood, and with it, the DNA it contains.
But four years after his lifesaving procedure, it was not only Mr. Long’s blood that was affected. Swabs of his lips and cheeks contained his DNA — but also that of his donor. Even more surprising to Mr. Long and other colleagues at the crime lab, all of the DNA in his semen belonged to his donor. “I thought that it was pretty incredible that I can disappear and someone else can appear,” he said.
Mr. Long had become a chimera, the technical term for the rare person with two sets of DNA. The word takes its name from a fire-breathing creature in Greek mythology composed of lion, goat and serpent parts. Doctors and forensic scientists have long known that certain medical procedures turn people into chimeras, but where exactly a donor’s DNA shows up — beyond blood — has rarely been studied with criminal applications in mind.
[…]
If another patient responded similarly to a transplant and that person went on to commit a crime, it could mislead investigators, said Brittney Chilton, a criminalist at the Sheriff’s Office forensic science division.
And it has misled them, Ms. Chilton learned once she began to research chimerism. In 2004, investigators in Alaska uploaded a DNA profile extracted from semen to a criminal DNA database. It matched a potential suspect. But there was a problem: The man had been in prison at the time of the assault. It turned out that he had received a bone marrow transplant. The donor, his brother, was eventually convicted.
Abirami Chidambaram, who presented the Alaska case in 2005, when she worked for the Alaska State Scientific Crime Detection Laboratory in Anchorage, said she had heard about another disconcerting scenario since then. It involved police investigators who were skeptical of a sexual assault victim’s account because she said there had been one attacker, though DNA analysis showed two. Eventually the police determined that the second profile had come from her bone marrow donor.
Similar scenarios could also create confusion around a victim’s identity — and in fact it has, said Yongbin Eom, a visiting research scholar at the University of North Texas Center for Human Identification. In 2008, he was trying to identify the victim of a traffic accident for the National Forensic Service in Seoul, South Korea. Blood showed that the individual was female. But the body appeared to be male, which was confirmed by DNA in a kidney, but not in the spleen or the lung, which contained male and female DNA. Eventually, he figured out that the victim had received a bone marrow transplant from his daughter.
But don’t worry. The same experts who assured this could never happen have also declared that the phenomenon is harmless.
From the comments: Oh great, we’re going to have to learn yet another set of pronouns.
The Sound Of Settled Science
Mapping the Medieval Warm Period;
About 1000 years ago, large parts of the world experienced a prominent warm phase which in many cases reached a similar temperature level as today or even exceeded present-day warmth. While this Medieval Warm Period (MWP) has been documented in numerous case studies from around the globe, climate models still fail to reproduce this historical warm phase. The problem is openly conceded in the most recent IPCC report from 2013 (AR5, Working Group 1) where in chapter 5.3.5. the IPCC scientists admit […]
Surprisingly, the media have not picked up on this important issue. Maybe because the information is hidden in small print on page 415 of the voluminous report and omitted in the Summary for Policy Makers? The implications of the mismatch of model vs. reality may be serious: It is common practice in all fields of modeling to test models first on existing data, i.e. a known development, before using them as predictive tools. Models first have to pass the ‚hind cast‘ or ‚history match‘ before they qualify to be used for predictions. According to the IPCC, the climate models seem to have failed this test, appear to be on the road without driving license – so to speak – and are therefore unfit for future climate predictions.
Climategate: Ten Years On
Last week, an email from Rob Bradley reminded me of my previous blog post The legacy of Climategate: 5 years later. That post was the last in a sequence of posts at Climate Etc. since 2010 on Climategate; for the entire group of posts, see [link] Rereading these was quite a blast from the past.
While I still mention Climategate in interviews, the general reaction I get is ‘yawn . . . old hat . . . so 2010 . . . nothingburger . . . the scientists were all exonerated . . . the science has proven to be robust.’ I hadn’t even thought of a ’10 years later’ post until Rob Bradley’s email.
Now I see that, at least in the UK, the 10 year anniversary looks to be rather a big deal. Already we are seeing some analyses published in the mainstream media…
It’s excellent. Grab a coffee.
Y2Kyoto: The Planet Has A Fever
It’s not the lowest elevation on the planet but -35C at 50deg latitude in mid November. Getting rediculous and no news coverage. pic.twitter.com/HTKpu1yVNY
— Syn Kronos (@KronosSyn) November 16, 2019
The Sound Of Settled Science
Now, scientists have cast doubt on yet another fundamental feature of the universe, its shape, in a new paper from Nature Astronomy that warns of a “cosmological crisis.”
Pretty sure that’s sciencespeak for “SEND MONEY”.
Y2Kyoto: 11,000 “Scientists” Say We’re All Gonna Die! Oh My!
It’s a real who’s who.
Update: It’s no Mickey Mouse organization. Oh, wait…
The Sound Of Settled Science
The remains of an ancient ape found in a Bavarian clay pit suggest that humans’ ancestors began standing upright millions of years earlier than previously thought, scientists said Wednesday.
An international team of researchers says the fossilized partial skeleton of a male ape that lived almost 12 million years ago in the humid forests of what is now southern Germany bears a striking resemblance to modern human bones. In a paper published by the journal Nature, they concluded that the previously unknown species — named Danuvius guggenmosi — could walk on two legs but also climb like an ape.
The findings “raise fundamental questions about our previous understanding of the evolution of the great apes and humans,” said Madelaine Boehme, of the University of Tübingen, Germany, who led the research.
It’s Probably Nothing
It’s Probably Nothing
ALIENS. A new type of virus that defies evolution has shocked scientists who have no idea how it is infecting its hosts.
The Sound Of Settled Science
We’re getting something wrong about the universe.
It might be something small: a measurement issue that makes certain stars looks closer or farther away than they are, something astrophysicists could fix with a few tweaks to how they measure distances across space. It might be something big: an error — or series of errors — in cosmology, or our understanding of the universe’s origin and evolution. If that’s the case, our entire history of space and time may be messed up. But whatever the issue is, it’s making key observations of the universe disagree with each other: Measured one way, the universe appears to be expanding at a certain rate; measured another way, the universe appears to be expanding at a different rate. And, as a new paper shows, those discrepancies have gotten larger in recent years, even as the measurements have gotten more precise.
The Sound Of Settled Science
Records Found in Dusty Basement Undermine Decades of Dietary Advice. (From 2017).
Honey, I Finished The Internet
BOTTOM STORY OF THE DAY: Scientists try but fail to make a KNIFE from their own frozen faeces…
h/t James
The Sound Of Settled Science
Abstract:
The reliability of general circulation climate model (GCM) global air
temperature projections is evaluated for the first time, by way of
propagation of model calibration error. An extensive series of
demonstrations show that GCM air temperature projections are just linear
extrapolations of fractional greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. Linear
projections are subject to linear propagation of error. A directly relevant
GCM calibration metric is the annual average ±12.1% error in global annual
average cloud fraction produced within CMIP5 climate models. This error is
strongly pair-wise correlated across models, implying a source in deficient
theory. The resulting long-wave cloud forcing (LWCF) error introduces an
annual average ±4 Wm–2 uncertainty into the simulated tropospheric thermal
energy flux. This annual ±4 Wm–2 simulation uncertainty is ±114 × larger
than the annual average ∼0.035 Wm–2 change in tropospheric thermal energy
flux produced by increasing GHG forcing since 1979. Tropospheric thermal
energy flux is the determinant of global air temperature. Uncertainty in
simulated tropospheric thermal energy flux imposes uncertainty on projected
air temperature. Propagation of LWCF thermal energy flux error through the
historically relevant 1988 projections of GISS Model II scenarios A, B, and
C, the IPCC SRES scenarios CCC, B1, A1B, and A2, and the RCP scenarios of
the 2013 IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, uncovers a ±15 C uncertainty in air
temperature at the end of a centennial-scale projection. Analogously large
but previously unrecognized uncertainties must therefore exist in all the
past and present air temperature projections and hindcasts of even advanced
climate models. The unavoidable conclusion is that an anthropogenic air
temperature signal cannot have been, nor presently can be, evidenced in
climate observables.
Full article is at https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2019.00223/full
(h/t to Dean)
The Sound Of Settled Science
“Spay and neuter”, they said. It’s good for their health, they said.
More troubling, despite the unambiguous statements made by proponents of the salutary effects of spay-neuter on dogs, a series of long-term research programs has begun to show that the effects are far more subtle — and sometimes outright damaging. Benjamin Hart, a researcher and veterinarian at the University of California, Davis, has led the biggest effort to date to see exactly what the repercussions of desexing might be, in the long term, using the database from his university’s veterinary hospital. By removing dogs’ reproductive organs, gonadectomies also remove their main source of hormones — estrogen, testosterone and progesterone — each of which has a role not just in reproduction, but systemically through the body.
The first publication by Dr. Hart and his team, in 2013, reported that desexing golden retrievers, especially before six months of age, increased their risk of serious joint diseases, four to five times over the risk intact dogs face. They have since found higher rate of joint diseases among desexed Labrador retrievers, German shepherds, Doberman pinschers, Bernese mountain dogs and St. Bernards. Risks of cancer increase multifold in spayed goldens, neutered boxers and all Bernese. Desexed dogs of all types suffer higher rates of obesity. One of the most touted claims of spay-neuter — that it increases an animal’s life span — may be tempered by the finding that with an increased life span comes an increase rate of life-taking cancers.
[…]
Similarly, the oft-cited behavioral improvements of desexed dogs are questionable. Dr. Hart has reported that only one in four male dogs neutered for reasons of “aggression” shows less of the behavior after the surgery; the same holds for rates of mounting and excessive urine-marking. In females, there is even some evidence of an increase in aggressive behaviors if they are spayed before the age of 1.
The argument against routine spay-neuter is framed in animal rights blather, which is crocodile delicious. The same activist veterinarians who’ve enacted bans on “elective” animal husbandry procedures (like cat declawing and tail docking) apparently did so without considering that these surgeries keeping their clinic lights on are also “elective”.
Mathematical Challenges to Darwin
Interesting discussion.
The Sound Of Settled Science
Ross McKitrick made the same argument over a decade ago: Why Should We Trust A Statistic That Might Not Even Exist?
“Discussions on global warming often refer to ‘global temperature.’ Yet the concept is thermodynamically as well as mathematically an impossibility,” says Science Daily, paraphrasing Bjarne Andresen, a professor at the University of Copenhagen’s Niels Bohr Institute, one of three authors of a paper questioning the “validity of a ‘global temperature.’”
“The temperature obtained by collecting measurements of air temperatures at a large number of measuring stations around the globe, weighing them according to the area they represent, and then calculating the yearly average according to the usual method of adding all values and dividing by the number of points.”
But a “temperature can be defined only for a homogeneous system,” says Andresen. The climate is not regulated by a single temperature. Instead, “differences of temperatures drive the processes and create the storms, sea currents, thunder, etc. which make up the climate”.
The Sound Of Settled Science
… has found winters in northern China have been warming since 4,000BC – regardless of human activity – but the mainland scientists behind the research warn there is no room for complacency or inaction on climate change, with the prospect of a sudden global cooling also posing a danger.
The study found that winds from Arctic Siberia have been growing weaker, the conifer tree line has been retreating north, and there has been a steady rise in biodiversity in a general warming trend that continues today. It appears to have little to do with the increase in greenhouse gases which began with the industrial revolution, according to the researchers.
Lead scientist Dr Wu Jing, from the Key Laboratory of Cenozoic Geology and Environment at the Institute of Geology and Geophysics, part of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, said the study had found no evidence of human influence on northern China’s warming winters.
The Sound Of Settled Science
The Sound Of Settled Science
It’s Alex Jones’ world and we’re just living in it.
Researchers in Canada found women who drank fluoridated tap water while pregnant had children with slightly lower IQ scores than women who lived in non-fluoridated cities.
The message from public health experts, however, is “don’t panic”.
While the authors of the study claim the research “raises possible concern”, other researchers say the findings don’t move the needle much — if at all — on the question of fluoride safety.
“The overwhelming body of evidence is still supporting water fluoridation,” said Matt Hopcraft, associate professor of dental public health at the University of Melbourne.
“Here’s a single study that points a little in the other direction. I think we just need to be cautious.”
Water fluoridation began in Australia in the 1960s as a way to help prevent dental decay. It’s been heralded as one of the greatest public health achievements of the 20th century.
Now do birth control pills and testosterone.

